In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, July 17th
France Completes Military Withdrawal from West and Central Africa, US Redirects Patriot Batteries from Switzerland to Ukraine, and other stories.
France Completes Military Withdrawal from West and Central Africa
France has transferred its last military bases in Senegal, completing withdrawal from West and Central Africa after 65 years of permanent presence. Senegalese authorities assumed control of Camp Geille and Dakar airport facilities, ending the deployment of 350 French troops who conducted joint operations and training missions. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye terminated defence agreements declaring foreign bases incompatible with sovereignty, following similar expulsions across the region since 2022.
France retains only Djibouti as permanent African base, hosting 1,500 troops controlling Red Sea access and Bab-el-Mandeb shipping lanes. Military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger expelled 4,300 French forces while contracting Russian Wagner mercenaries for counterinsurgency operations. Chad terminated defense cooperation in December 2024, removing French monitoring capabilities over Sahel region and Libyan border activities. The withdrawal eliminates France's rapid intervention capacity across the continent during escalating jihadist conflicts, reducing European influence while Russian and Chinese military partnerships expand. France plans cooperation through training programs and intelligence sharing but lacks forward-deployed assets for crisis response in unstable regions requiring immediate military intervention.
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China Expands Space Surveillance with Tracking Ship
China commissioned Liaowang-1 in April 2025, a 224-metre space tracking vessel displacing 30,000 tons. The vessel operates multiple radar systems and high-gain antennae to track satellites, ballistic missiles, and spacecraft from international waters, providing mobile coverage where fixed ground stations cannot reach. China maintains 18 overseas tracking facilities across Argentina, Bolivia, Venezuela, Pakistan, Kenya, Namibia, and Antarctica supporting satellite control and deep space missions. Liaowang-1 supplements four existing Yuan Wang vessels that conduct regular operations in South Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions while monitoring Chinese space launches and missile tests.
China's 2026-2035 space infrastructure plan prioritizes commercial expansion and overseas facility development to support growing satellite constellation requirements. Beijing has contracted 26 bilateral space agreements since 2022 covering satellite manufacturing, data sharing, and ground station access with developing nations across Africa, Latin America, and Asia. China's BeiDou navigation system operates 45 satellites supported by 120 ground stations, providing GPS-alternative services to Belt and Road partners. The dual-use nature of civilian space infrastructure enables military communications, intelligence collection, and space situational awareness capabilities supporting PLA global operations. Mobile tracking ships provide redundancy against potential diplomatic restrictions on fixed overseas facilities during regional conflicts, particularly concerning Taiwan scenarios requiring sustained space-based command and control capabilities.
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US Redirects Patriot Batteries from Switzerland to Ukraine
The United States has delayed Swiss Patriot deliveries to prioritize supplies to Ukraine, as production constraints force allocation decisions across competing allied requirements. Switzerland ordered five Raytheon systems in 2022 for 2027-2028 delivery, but Washington has redirected output to enable countries transferring existing Patriots to Ukraine to receive replacement systems. Germany has transferred three of twelve Patriots to Ukraine while lending two to Poland, retaining six systems.
Patriot interceptor production cannot meet global demand as Ukraine, Israel, and NATO allies compete for limited manufacturing capacity. Russian strikes on Ukraine have increased five-fold since early 2025, employing improved drone swarms and decoy systems that deplete Ukrainian interceptor stocks faster than replacement rates. Current Ukrainian air defence includes German, Dutch, Romanian, and Norwegian Patriot contributions, with potential Israeli retired PAC-2 transfers under consideration. Manufacturing bottlenecks create strategic vulnerability as European NATO members reduce national air defence capabilities to sustain Ukrainian operations.
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China Outspends the US in Quantum Hardware Race
China's Zuchongzhi 3.0 achieved 105-qubit performance in March 2025, outperforming Google's Sycamore by six orders of magnitude in quantum random circuit sampling. Beijing deployed $138 billion through government venture funds targeting quantum computing alongside existing $15 billion annual research spending, while Chinese quantum firms increased from 93 to 153 companies in 2024. China operates the world's largest quantum communication network spanning 12,000 kilometres with satellite links to South Africa and Austria.
US quantum development generates under $750 million revenue despite $2 billion in private investment, relying on Google, IBM, Microsoft, and startups for innovation. Google's December 2024 Willow chip achieved breakthrough quantum error correction, reducing errors exponentially as systems scale — a milestone enabling practical applications. IBM targets 200 logical qubits with Starling by 2029, while Microsoft develops neutral atom systems and quantum networking. China's manufacturing capacity and integrated supply chains position it for quantum-AI-robotics integration, while US strength lies in theoretical research, algorithm development, and commercial applications. The divergent approaches reflect strategic differences: China's centralized hardware supremacy versus America's decentralized ecosystem emphasizing fault-tolerant systems and market viability.
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Turkey Lacks Military Options Against Israeli Syria Operations
Turkey's military constraints prevent effective response to Israeli strikes targeting its Syrian deployments, forcing Ankara to rely on diplomatic channels rather than military deterrence. Turkish air defence systems prove insufficient even for Turkey's own protection, precluding deployment to defend Syrian airspace over Damascus.
Turkey's limited military inventory cannot sustain confrontation with Israeli air power in Syrian territory. Turkish consideration of deploying Russian S-400 systems to T4 faced immediate US opposition, while Turkey's domestically produced Hisar air defence systems exist in insufficient numbers for foreign deployment. Turkey's traditional reluctance to establish deep foreign military bases, combined with nearly a decade of Syrian involvement, constrains the appetite for expanded confrontation risking direct conflict with Israel's superior air assets. Israeli strikes on T4, Palmyra, and Hama airports neutralized Turkish positioning before deployment, while Turkey's F-16 fleet requires ongoing Washington approval for modernization programs that could face suspension during regional confrontation.
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Tajikistan Expels Afghan Refugees Following 15-Day Ultimatum
Tajikistan has issued a 15-day ultimatum for Afghan refugees to leave voluntarily or face deportation, targeting an estimated 9,000-13,000 Afghans concentrated in Vahdat and Rudaki districts near Dushanbe. Authorities detained refugees at workplaces and residential areas without warning, confiscating UNHCR-issued documents before transporting deportees to the Sherkhan border crossing in Afghanistan's Kunduz province.
Tajikistan shares a 1,300-kilometre border with Afghanistan, making the Sherkhan crossing a primary deportation route through which expelled refugees reach Afghan territory. The campaign mirrors regional patterns, with Iran and Pakistan expelling 71,000 Afghans in June, creating coordinated pressure across Afghanistan's neighbour states. Many deportees are former Afghan government officials who fled Taliban reprisals in 2021, with forced returns potentially disrupting resettlement applications to third countries.