In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, July 28th
Iran Breaks Up Israeli Spy Network, Greece and Saudi Arabia Sign Energy Deal, and other stories.
Iran Breaks Up Israeli Spy Network
Iran claims to have apprehended a number of spies linked to Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency. Iran’s law enforcement intelligence has said that Mossad gave assurances to the five individuals arrested as part of a spy network bust. Israel has declined to comment on the reported arrests, though Israeli espionage and sabotage operations near Iranian nuclear facilities are common.
Iran and Israel have been engaged in a years-long covert, with tensions rising in recent years following a string of high-profile incidents that Iran has blamed on Israel. Some members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and scientists have been killed in recent months, with Iran often pointing the finger at Israel, while Israeli officials rejecting all such claims. The developments come amid intensified tensions as Israel continues to militarily posture to be able to strike inside Iran and prevent the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon. As tensions between Iran and Israel continue to grow, further escalation should be expected.
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Biden and Xi Hold Talks
In recent years, the diplomatic language emanating from Beijing and Washington has worked to deteriorate relations between the two countries. The latest call between the two leaders saw both leaders maintain their respective positions, though they did discuss a possible face-to-face meeting.
Each side appears to be pointing the finger at the other in justifying the ongoing impasse in bilateral ties. The United States claims that Beijing refuses to hold substantive talks until Washington meets certain demands that it deems unacceptable, while China has protested that Washington refuses to stop attacking, and undermining China on virtually every platform. Differing perspectives on sovereignty, economic policy, and numerous other political issues have long tested the relationship between the two countries, with China’s refusal to join Washington in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine adding further strain to relations.
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Increased NATO Focus on Baltic Defence
The war in Ukraine has further increased attention to and thinking about Baltic defence. The consequent Finnish and Swedish accession bids to NATO promise to transform the geostrategic character of the Baltic Sea by becoming a NATO lake that should be able to wholly deny Russia access to its waters. At the same time, increased focus on militarization in the Baltic states promises to bolster NATO’s eastern flank.
NATO has committed to bolstering reinforcements in the Baltic states; the existing battalion-sized enhanced forward presence battlegroups will now each be expanded to brigade-size. NATO military expansion is welcome in all three Baltic states as it improves the effects of NATO’s deterrence against Russia. This expansion fits with a renewed pattern of eastern flank reinforcement caused by escalation in Ukraine, with militarization gaining momentum across the EU. Alongside increasing the number of troops in the Baltic states themselves, NATO also plans to base more combat-ready reinforcements nearby that may respond quickly.
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Greece and Saudi Arabia Sign Energy Deal
Greece and Saudi Arabia have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that will see the two countries closely cooperate in areas related to the energy sector. The MOU was signed during an official visit of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz to Athens, and sets out a framework for cooperation in the oil, gas, and petrochemical industry, clean hydrogen transportation, renewable energy, electrical interconnection, and the exportation of Saudi electricity to Greece and Europe.
The two leaders agreed to set up a Supreme Strategic Cooperation Council, which will consolidate the strategic relationship between the two countries and work to promote bilateral cooperation in all areas of mutual interest. The deal they signed involves increased energy investments that will focus on securing supply chains for materials, products, and services related to all energy sectors. In addition, the framework of MOU includes joint research in the fields of energy with universities, and working sessions, panel discussions, seminars, and multilateral conferences will be organized. The MOU also includes cooperation in the field of promoting digital transformation via the “East to Med Data Corridor” joint venture, which promises to build a data cable between Greece and Saudi Arabia.