In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, June 22nd
Indonesia Moves Joint Military Exercise Away from Disputed Waters, EU Holds Crisis Talks with Serbia and Kosovo, and other stories.
Indonesia Moves Joint Military Exercise Away from Disputed Waters
Indonesia has announced its decision to relocate an upcoming joint Southeast Asian military exercise away from disputed waters in the South China Sea. The move comes at a time of growing tensions between China and several states in the region over maritime and territorial disputes. The decision aims to ease tensions and minimize the risk of potential conflicts by conducting the exercise in uncontested waters near Batam and South Natuna.
The joint military exercise, organized by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), was originally planned to take place in the North Natuna Sea, which is within Indonesia's exclusive economic zone and intersects with China's “nine-dash line” maritime claim. However, by shifting the location, Indonesia, as the chair of ASEAN this year, seeks to avoid exacerbating tensions in the South China Sea. The exercise, known as the ASEAN Solidity Exercise (ENatuna), will involve non-combat drills focusing on joint maritime patrols, medical evacuations, and natural disaster relief operations among the ASEAN member states and Timor-Leste.
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Russia and Uzbekistan Sign Natural Gas Deal
Uzbekistan and Russia's Gazprom have reached an agreement for Uzbekistan to purchase 2.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually over the next two years, aiming to address potential winter shortages. The gas will be transported through the Central Asia-Center (CAC) pipeline, which runs via Kazakhstan. Daily deliveries of 9 million cubic meters of gas are scheduled to commence on October 1, with the tariff based on market rates and local prices in Uzbekistan.
The deal has been met with interest, as it marks a significant development in Russia's efforts to sell gas to Central Asian buyers. The agreement also paves the way for other countries in the region to explore importing Gazprom fuel. As part of the arrangement, Uzbekistan plans to construct a new gas metering station, modernize three gas-pumping stations, and expand the existing pipeline network by adding 22 kilometres of pipelines. The move is a strategic response to prevent potential energy shortages during winter. By securing this agreement, Uzbekistan aims to ensure a stable gas supply, despite the country's reliance on imported Russian gas.
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EU Holds Crisis Talks with Serbia and Kosovo
The European Union has called for urgent crisis talks with the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo as tensions continue to escalate, sparking fears of a return to conflict. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell announced the meetings, aiming to find a way out of the current crisis and emphasize the need for immediate de-escalation and new elections in the north, with the participation of Kosovo Serbs.
The latest flare-up between Serbia and Kosovo stems from the detention of three Kosovo police officers by Serbia, following weeks of tension over disputed elections in northern Kosovo. The ethnic Serb community in the region, which rejects moves by Pristina to consolidate control, remains loyal to Belgrade. Despite Kosovo declaring independence from Serbia in 2008 with NATO support, Belgrade does not recognize its sovereignty, contributing to the ongoing tensions. Efforts to reconcile the two sides have been led by the EU for years, but progress has been limited. The recent crisis has prompted the EU to threaten political consequences, such as suspending high-level visits and financial cooperation.
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Germany Signals Economic Decoupling with China
The German-Chinese government consultations in Berlin are being overshadowed by Germany's new political-economic measures against China. The German government is reportedly drafting a China strategy that signals a toughening of its stance towards China to one that is closer aligned with that of the United States. The Minister of the Interior has claimed that the use of Huawei technology in German 5G networks poses a threat to public order and security, potentially leading to a Huawei ban. Additionally, the EU Commission is preparing a new strategy for “economic security,” aligning with US measures that include bans on exports and investments.
The German National Security Strategy, released by the government, indicates an increasing element of rivalry and competition in Germany's relations with China. While Scholz aims to minimize damage to German industry, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock prioritizes an aggressive stance against Beijing. German companies, including firms like Volkswagen and BASF, are considering splitting off their Chinese branches or turning them into autonomous enterprises. The financial sector is also considering similar measures, with multinational corporations exploring the possibility of separating their China business into independent entities. Germany's tougher stance on China and the subsequent decoupling could have significant consequences, impacting bilateral relations and economic cooperation between the two countries.
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Russia’s Narrowing Options for Theatre Missile Coercion
The interception of Russian missiles in Ukraine has raised concerns about Moscow's ability to carry out theatre-level conventional and nuclear coercion, particularly if NATO strengthens integrated air and missile defence capabilities in Ukraine and NATO’s eastern flank. While Russia still has various options for conducting limited nuclear strikes, the need for a larger number of missiles to overcome improved defence systems would impose constraints on their conventional and nuclear strategies. This would force Moscow to consider the operational utility of striking certain targets.
The interception of Russian missiles in Ukraine highlights the potential strategic effects of enhanced integrated air and missile defence systems, even if a comprehensive defence against Russian attacks is not currently plausible. Improved European integrated air and missile defence systems could require Russia to use more missiles to strike defended assets, raising questions about the cost-benefit analysis of their strategies. Additionally, the need to neutralize NATO's space-based sensor layer and maritime ballistic missile defence capabilities would further complicate Russia's plans for limited nuclear use. These developments would compel Russia to expend greater resources and consider the consequences of larger salvos, ultimately shaping their decisions on conventional and nuclear targeting.