In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, June 30th
EU in Talks to Defuse Standoff over Kaliningrad, Russian Forces Abandon Snake Island, and other stories.
EU in Talks to Defuse Standoff over Kaliningrad
Kaliningrad, a Russian semi-exclave which is surrounded by European Union member states, and relies on railways and roads which run through Lithuania for access to most of its goods. The transfer of goods from mainland Russia to Kaliningrad has been hampered after sanctions imposed by the EU cut off from some freight transport crossing Lithuania. Now, European officials are said to be in talks about exempting the territory from sanctions.
Thus far, EU sanctions against Russia prevent the transport of iron, steel and other metals to Kaliningrad through the EU. Yet the list of sanctioned goods is set to grow as Russian cement and alcohol products are set to be barred from transport across the EU from July 10, coal to be banned from August and oil-related products from December. When the final phase of sanctions is applied, roughly half the freight sent to Kaliningrad from Russia will be prevented from transiting the EU. If the traditional route for Russian goods to Kaliningrad is not restored, it could lead to an escalation as Moscow becomes increasingly desperate to possess transit routes to Kaliningrad.
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China’s Interest in Ensuring Russia’s Survival
China has remained willing to provide Russia with an economic lifeline because Beijing sees a weakened Russia as a worst-case scenario in geopolitical terms. Part of this calculation stems from national security concerns, with stability on China’s long border with Russia of significant concern to Beijing. Yet more broadly, Russia increasingly serves as a valuable strategic buffer for China in its rivalry with the United States.
Washington has made clear that China presents the main strategic challenge for the United States. Recent strategic documents published by the US have gone further, coupling China together with Russia as a joint threat facing the US and its alliance structure. Increased pressure on Moscow may severely weaken the Russian state going forward, and this is a concern in Beijing because it would mean China would become the sole focus of US geostrategic efforts. As such, China is incentivized to prop up Russia in a bid to prevent a far worse state of affairs for Beijing’s interests should Russia capitulate or become subservient to Washington’s interests in the years ahead.
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Russian Forces Abandon Snake Island
Russia has announced its armed forces have withdraw from Snake Island as part of a “gesture of goodwill” that would allow grain shipments from Ukrainian ports to resume. Despite the stated intentions of the Russian withdrawal, the abandonment of Snake island is a major reversal for Russia in the battle for control of the Black Sea after Ukrainian missile strikes made Russia’s position on the island untenable.
Situated 48km (30 miles) off the coast of Ukraine, Snake Island was seized by Russia on the opening day of the war. Russia’s initial efforts to bolster its military presence on the island were successful as air defence radar and anti-aircraft missiles were deployed to successfully fend off Ukrainian attacks. However, the increased use of rocket systems by Ukraine forced Russia to pull most of its ships out of range of the island, leaving it exposed. Snake Island is a strategically important islet as it allows for the control of approach waters to Ukraine’s commercial ports.
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Indonesia Tries to Mediate between Russia and Ukraine
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has arrived in Moscow for a meeting with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in a bid to broker peace talks and discuss the global food crisis. Before leaving Jakarta, Widodo outlined the goal of his trip was to ask the leaders of Russia and Ukraine to open room for a dialogue for the sake of peace.
The Indonesian leader’s trip has taken him to this week's G-7 summit in Germany and saw him meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kiev before he departed for Moscow. During his meeting with Zelenskyy, Widodo offered to play a mediating role in bringing the two warring sides to the negotiating table. At the same time, Widodo is looking to mitigate the effects of a food crisis caused by disruptions to wheat and fertilizer supplies. Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of wheat, while Russia is a top exporter of fertilizers.
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