In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, June 9th
Algeria Suspends Trade Ties with Spain, Fuel Crisis Grips Nigeria, Turkish-Greek Relations Deteriorating Once More
Algeria Suspends Trade Ties with Spain
Algeria has decided to suspend all trade in products and services with Spain due to its role in legitimizing the status of Western Sahara as Moroccan territory. Algeria's banking association ordered stopping payments to and from Spain, affecting all trade between the two countries except for energy transfers. The move comes soon after Algeria suspended a 20-year-old friendship treaty with Spain that committed the two sides to cooperate in overseeing migration flows.
Algeria was angered when earlier this year Spain openly supported a Moroccan plan to incorporate Western Sahara as an autonomous region of Morocco. The region was annexed by Morocco in 1975, and since then, Algeria and Morocco have had tense ties over the fate of Western Sahara. Algeria backs the separatist Polisario Front movement which is seeking full independence, while Morocco regards the territory as its own. In response to the breakdown of trade ties, the Spanish government vowed to “firmly defend” Spanish national interests in light of Algeria's decision. In addition, the European Union has urged Algeria to reverse its decision to halt trade with Spain while pressing for dialogue.
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Fuel Crisis Grips Nigeria
Nigeria is experiencing a severe fuel crisis. Despite the fact that Nigeria is the largest crude oil exporter in sub-Saharan Africa, the country lacks domestic refining capacity. This means that Nigeria imports the majority of its refined oil products, making the country particularly vulnerable to external shocks in the global energy market. Such market forces have been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, and are now disrupting the country's ability to access refined oil imports from abroad.
The global fuel crisis has led to supply shortages, panic buying and price rises across the world. Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to rising energy costs due to an inability of governments here to be able to afford energy at high prices, and Nigeria is no exception. Widespread consumer hardship is now expected across the country, increasing the likelihood of unrest and supply chain disruptions. With no new domestic production expected to come online before 2023 — when the Dangote Refinery in Lekki is expected to begin operations — Nigeria will remain dependent on oil imports and therefore very vulnerable to persistent global shortages.
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Turkish-Greek Relations Deteriorating Once More
When the war in Ukraine began, Greece and Turkey appeared to have put to one side some of their differences as tensions between Ankara and Athens eased. In March, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis travelled to Istanbul for talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a rare high-level political meeting between the two Aegean rivals which both parties suggested was positive and constructive. Since then, however, relations between Greece and Turkey have deteriorated rapidly.
For policymakers in both Greece and Turkey, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought about new risks and opportunities for pursuing divergent goals in the Aegean. In Athens, the war in Ukraine reinforced fears of Turkish military power, which prompted Greek officials to strengthen ties with Washington. In Ankara, the conflict has altered Turkish security calculations in the Black Sea and reinforced fears of increased military cooperation between the United States and Greece. While neither side has perceived Russia’s invasion as an opportunity for escalation, rival national narratives and interpretations of international law, coupled with mutual distrust, have increased the risk of conflict in the Aegean considerably. While a war over the Aegean between Greece and Turkey remains unlikely, the increasingly divergent interpretations of history and international law may prove intractable to solve.
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