In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, March 17th
US Seeks Regional Help in Curbing Migration from Central America, The Value of US Intelligence for Ukraine, War in Ukraine Puts into Question the Value of Tanks
US Seeks Regional Help in Curbing Migration from Central America
The United States’ government is seeking to establish a regional framework that would work to curb migration toward the US. Faced with the likelihood of reopening the US southern border to asylum seekers, the Biden administration is urging leaders in Latin American countries to implement favourable immigration controls and expand their own asylum programmes in a bid to share the burden of unwanted migration with the US.
Biden has stated that a key goal for his administration has been to “secure commitments” from countries in South and Central America which would see other countries do more to secure their borders and host more refugees. Biden has called for a new framework that is able to collectively manage migration across the entire Western Hemisphere, and his administration is set to work out a regional declaration on migration and protection when the US hosts the Summit of the Americas in June. Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia could all play a key role in this proposed framework, and all three may stand to benefit from US support if they work to establish themselves as safe havens for migrants under a regional asylum framework. To lay the foundations for such an agreement, US Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has been meeting with leaders across Latin and South America.
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The Value of US Intelligence for Ukraine
While the United States has made clear that its forces will not fight or operate overtly in Ukraine, Washington’s vast intelligence network has been actively involved in sharing real-time intelligence with the Ukrainian armed forces since Russia’s invasion began. As US and other NATO countries continue to rapidly supply Ukraine with battlefield supplies, weapons and ammunition, US intelligence operations may be the most valuable form of assistance that Ukraine receives in the war against Russia.
The United States is actively sharing intelligence with Ukraine. A senior Pentagon official has confirmed that the US government is actively sharing “information and intelligence” with Ukrainian forces, stating that it is the Pentagon’s belief such efforts would be “helpful” across the battlefield. Initially restrained by strict guidelines in the early days of the war, intelligence sharing between US spy agencies and Ukraine’s military command structure has been expanded, and is now a powerful means through which Ukraine’s armed forces are able to identify and eliminate vulnerable Russian positions in real-time. Well-timed and received intelligence data allows Ukrainian fighters to target the logistics and supply lines of Russian forces, severely hampering Russia’s ability to conduct operations across all axes of advance.
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War in Ukraine Puts into Question the Value of Tanks
A string of photos and videos have documented the numerous mangled and destroyed Russian tanks that now litter the battlefield in Ukraine. Unmanned weapons systems are part of the reason for this Russian graveyard of tanks, with Bayraktar TB2 combat drones and Javelin anti-tank missiles used to devastating effect against Russian armoured units in Ukraine. The tank’s turret is vulnerable to missiles, and these anti-tank weapons systems are proving effective despite efforts by Russian forces to protect their tanks from these types of missiles.
Unmanned system are proving particularly deadly to the tank. The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones employed by the Ukrainian armed forces are equipped with four laser-guided missiles and are capable of loitering in the air for roughly 24 hours. These weapons have the ability to deliver precision strikes all while the drone operators remain at a safe distance of up to 185 miles. The Bayraktar drones already demonstrated their value when deployed by the armed forces of Azerbaijan in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, and are now proving their effectiveness against the more advanced counter-measures employed by Russia’s armed forces. While Russian forces in Ukraine have primarily relied on motorized brigades which by and large operate without accompanying air defences or surface-to-air missiles, the Bayraktar TB2 in the service of Ukraine have nonetheless been able to avoid Russian radar and jamming equipment, and deliver devastating strikes against Russian armoured columns. As such, these technologies are effective in dealing with armoured divisions.
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