In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, March 16th
Tonnes of Uranium Reportedly Missing in Libya, Poland Set to Deliver MiG-29 Aircraft to Ukraine, and other stories.
Tonnes of Uranium Reportedly Missing in Libya
The UN's nuclear watchdog recently raised alarm over the disappearance of 2.5 tonnes of natural uranium from a storage base in war-torn Libya. Hours later, General Khaled al-Mahjoub, a commander serving general Khalifa Haftar, claimed that the missing uranium had been found near a storage base in southern Libya. The discovery was made after an inspection that had been postponed due to security concerns in the region. The situation is now under control, according to General al-Mahjoub.
Libya has been in political turmoil since the fall of its former leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, and is currently split between a government in the west and one in the east, backed by military strongman Khalifa Haftar. The discovery of the missing uranium raises concerns about radiological and security risks, as well as the potential for proliferation. Libya had previously renounced its nuclear weapons program in 2003, but the discovery of the yellowcake storage site in 2011 had led to fears that the country could still pose a nuclear threat.
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Poland Dismantles Russian Spy Network
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak has announced that a Russian espionage network operating in Poland had been broken up. Hidden cameras were reportedly found on important railway routes, mainly in the southern Podkarpackie region.
Blaszczak suggested that the group had entered from neighboring Belarus, a Russian ally that borders NATO member Poland. Later, Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski revealed that the Internal Security Agency had arrested nine people suspected of spying for Russia in the case, who were preparing acts of “sabotage” aimed at “paralyzing the supply of equipment, weapons and aid” headed to Ukraine. Cameras, electronic equipment, and GPS transmitters, which the suspects planned to place on transports carrying aid to Ukraine, were said to be seized by Polish security agents.
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Iran's Security Chief Meets with UAE Officials
Iran's security chief, Ali Shamkhani, was sent to the UAE to meet with Emirati national security adviser Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan to discuss bilateral and regional issues, in hopes of warmer ties and unblocking Iran's frozen assets. The meeting was attended by UAE's President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed and other officials. During the visit, Shamkhani expressed Iran's readiness for "constructive engagement" and called for "cooperation to replace hostility" in the Persian Gulf region.
The meeting was also seen as an opportunity to discuss the fate of the 2015 nuclear deal and sanctions relief. Shamkhani described his visit as part of the UAE’s neighbourhood diplomacy. The Iranian leadership has been facing a crisis of legitimacy and has been under pressure to salvage the crucial nuclear deal. Shamkhani's role as lead negotiator for Iran in the Chinese-brokered deal with Saudi Arabia has sparked debate among Iranian pundits over whether he was effectively bypassing the hard-line Foreign Ministry and negotiators in the nuclear dossier.
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Poland Set to Deliver MiG-29 Aircraft to Ukraine
Poland has announced that it will supply Ukraine with four Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets, becoming the first NATO member to fulfil the Ukrainian government's request for such aircraft. While the move is seen as a welcome boost to Ukraine's air defence, the extra jets are not expected to be decisive in the ongoing war with Russia. Other NATO countries are also considering sending Soviet-era planes to Ukraine, as Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly them.
The decision by Poland to supply Ukraine with fighter jets is a clear indication of its support for its neighbour, which is currently engaged in a war with Russia. Poland has been one of the main proponents of Ukraine’s war effort, suppliers of military equipment and a strong ally of the country. The move is significant as it comes amid a time when both NATO and Russia are choosing to climb the escalation ladder instead of pursuing dialogue. While NATO has been hesitant to provide lethal military aid to Ukraine, the decision by Poland to supply fighter jets is likely to encourage other NATO members to consider similar actions.
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The EU's Proposed Electricity Market Reform
The European Commission has proposed a reform to the bloc's electricity market aimed at reducing short-term price volatility for customers and increasing investments in renewable energy. The proposal seeks to increase the competitiveness of renewable energy sources and incentivize the use of long-term contracts between producers and consumers to protect the latter from severe spikes in natural gas prices. The plan aims to encourage innovative solutions in energy storage systems and demand response mechanisms, reducing the need for fossil fuel-fired power plants.
The recent fall in energy prices has reduced the bloc's sense of urgency to reform the electricity market. However, the proposed measures have been welcomed by environmental groups and renewable energy industry associations. The reform could prove divisive among member states, which may delay its implementation. The proposal will now be debated by the European Parliament and national governments in the coming months, both of which will need to approve the reform before it enters into force. Despite its limitations, the proposed reform is an important step towards achieving the European Union's goals of reducing its reliance on Russian fossil fuels and achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.