In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, March 23rd
Oil Tankers Rerouted to Rotterdam due to Strikes in France, Finland Allows NATO Surveillance Missions in its Airspace, and other stories.
Oil Tankers Rerouted to Rotterdam due to Strikes in France
The French government's proposed pension reform plan has been met with increasing protests, now in their 16th day. The strike has caused disruptions in various sectors, including the power sector, refineries, and LNG terminals, as well as halting maintenance on nuclear reactors. Protesters clashed with police across France earlier this week, and unions have pledged to continue with their protest despite government warnings.
The ongoing strikes have led to a reduction of French power availability by 21 GW across nuclear, thermal, and hydropower plants, and France is set to lose 500,000 barrels a day of crude oil refining for the month of March. Oil tankers are being rerouted to Rotterdam to avoid the French port of Le Havre due to the strike, while operations at the Dunkirk LNG terminal have been hindered by the strikes and protests, leading to a declaration of force majeure. The government has attempted to requisition workers at key refineries, but unions remain steadfast in their protest, calling for the withdrawal of the pension reform proposal.
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US Shares Intelligence to Counter Russian Influence in the Sahel
The United States is increasing its efforts to counter Russia's influence in the Sahel. To that end, US officials reportedly shared intelligence with Chad in February, alleging that Wagner Group mercenaries are plotting to topple Chad's transitional government.
The US strategy to counter Russia in the Sahel at times involves continuing to overlook the undemocratic elements of Niger's political system and Chad's authoritarian character. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Niger announced $150 million in new direct humanitarian aid to the Sahel. This move by the US to increase its support to Niger and the region, though a good thing, is only one part of a top-down approach to counter Russian influence. The approach relies on wooing the rulers of some of Africa’s most fragile countries and assumes that such leaders can manage serious pressures within their societies.
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Australia-China Relations Show Signs of Improvement
The recent reengagement between Australian and Chinese defence officials and the revival of timber exports to China mark a promising development in the strained relationship between the two nations. This constructive dialogue is a positive step toward reducing the likelihood of unexpected incidents that could harm regional security. Furthermore, the resumption of trade relations between Australia and China will help boost both countries' economies while also addressing security concerns.
However, tensions persist, particularly regarding China's growing presence in the Pacific Islands. The recent $170 million contract awarded by the Solomon Islands to China's state-owned China Civil Engineering Construction Corp. to upgrade Honiara's international port has raised concerns that Beijing may use the port to host its warships. Meanwhile, China remains wary of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. As such, navigating the complexities of the Australia-China relationship will continue to pose challenges for policymakers on both sides.
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The US Weighing Need for Interoperable NATO Drone Swarms
The need for interoperability between multiple countries and services to develop, test and operationalize drone swarming technology across the NATO alliance is increasingly being discussed. Interoperable drone swarms could strengthen allies with rapid information sharing and create increased opportunities to deploy rapid, lethal, and non-lethal effects. By doing so, it would also allow allies with limited military budgets to contribute to, and reap the benefits of, advances in drone technology.
The United States military has been creating drone-swarm technology across the physical domains. Drone swarming enables larger-scale control of individual drones or smaller groups of drones. Currently, each US military branch is pursuing its drone-swarming program, which has allowed the services to address unique domain-specific issues related to the operationalization of swarms while ensuring compatibility amongst other service-specific force elements. However, a comprehensive effort by multiple branches to concurrently employ drone swarms would be well suited to the Joint All Domain Command and Control program, furthering its goal of joint, combined interoperability.
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Finland Allows NATO Surveillance Missions in its Airspace
Finland has allowed NATO to conduct surveillance and intelligence missions in its airspace, with the first mission being conducted on March 23, 2023, in cooperation with the United States. This decision follows Finland and Sweden joining the Alliance Persistent Surveillance from Space (APSS) initiative in February 2023, which aims to enhance NATO's intelligence and surveillance capabilities by utilizing both national and commercial space assets.
Finland's participation in APSS and opening its airspace for NATO missions demonstrates its growing cooperation with NATO on security issues. The decision has been welcomed by other Nordic countries and the United States. Finland's move towards strengthening its situational awareness and deterrence posture in the Baltic Sea region could be a significant step towards its potential membership in NATO. The country's decision to allow NATO surveillance and intelligence missions in its airspace demonstrates its commitment to working with NATO and improving security in the region.