In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, March 21st
US Backs India in Arunachal Pradesh Dispute with China, Australia and UK Sign Mutual Defence Treaty, and other stories.
US Backs India in Arunachal Pradesh Dispute with China
The United States has firmly sided with India in its ongoing territorial dispute with China over the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh. A US State Department spokesperson declared that the United States now recognizes Arunachal Pradesh as Indian territory and opposes any unilateral attempts to advance claims across the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
The US intervention in the India-China spat is aimed at gradually aligning with India in the hopes of reciprocal actions by New Delhi. By unequivocally backing India's claim to Arunachal Pradesh, Washington is not only reaffirming its strategic partnership with New Delhi, but also signalling its willingness to counter Beijing along the LAC to advance India's interests. This move could embolden India to take a harder line against Chinese encroachments, while also raising the stakes for any potential military confrontation. At the same time, China is unlikely to back down from its territorial claims, setting the stage for a prolonged stand-off that could have implications for regional stability and great power competition in Asia.
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China's Evolving Role in Transboundary Water Management
China, the source of 16 major rivers supplying water to nearly 3 billion people across 14 Asian countries, has often been portrayed as an upstream bully in transboundary water politics. However, with the growing recognition of the link between sustainable development and regional stability, China now has an opportunity to leverage its position for fostering peace and cooperation through transboundary water management. China's success in this endeavour will depend not only on its ability to navigate diplomatic relationships with its downstream neighbours, but also on the trajectory of the China-US rivalry.
In recent years, China has made significant strides in addressing the institutional constraints that previously hindered its transboundary water and environmental resource management. The Foreign Ministry and international-facing agencies have become more involved, and China has created its own platform for cooperation, such as the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation, which highlights its upstream geopolitical standing. The Belt and Road Initiative has further streamlined China's approach, integrating transboundary water management into multifaceted projects focused on development, clean energy, and capacity building. As China navigates the challenges and opportunities of transboundary water management, its success in fostering regional cooperation and stability will have far-reaching implications for the future of Asia.
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Turkey and GCC Launch Free Trade Agreement Talks
Turkey and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have taken a significant step toward strengthening their economic relations by signing an agreement to begin formal negotiations for a free trade deal. The move comes as Ankara seeks to bolster its ties with Middle Eastern countries, following years of strained relations due to Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood.
The potential free trade agreement could provide substantial benefits for both parties. Turkey, with its diverse and competitive export-oriented economy, stands to gain improved access to the GCC market, which currently maintains relatively high tariff barriers for various goods, particularly in the agro-industrial and industrial sectors. Meanwhile, GCC countries, as significant investors in Turkey, will likely prioritize investment protections and the establishment of a favourable framework for foreign direct investment. However, the path to a successful Turkey-GCC free trade agreement is not without obstacles. As a member of the customs union with the European Union, Turkey is required to align its trade agreements with those of the EU. Consequently, the implementation of a Turkey-GCC deal is contingent upon the conclusion of a similar pact between the EU and the GCC, negotiations for which have been suspended for several political reasons.
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Australia and UK Sign Mutual Defence Treaty
The United Kingdom and Australia have signed a defence and security treaty, further cementing their strategic partnership in response to China's growing military power in the Indo-Pacific region. The pact, which builds upon the trilateral AUKUS agreement with the United States, aims to enhance military cooperation, joint exercises, and maritime security between the two nations.
As part of this deepening alliance, Australia will invest £2.4 billion in expanding Rolls-Royce's nuclear reactor facilities in the UK, paving the way for the British firm to supply submarines being built by BAE Systems for the Royal Australian Navy. The AUKUS partnership is set to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines and significantly bolster its naval capabilities. The substantial Australian investment highlights the economic and industrial benefits of the AUKUS deal for the UK, with thousands of jobs expected to be created across major defence sites. While the submarine project faces challenges in terms of timelines, strong support in the United States and the shared strategic imperative of balancing China suggest that AUKUS allies remain committed to its success.
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Argentina Confirms Pivot Toward the US with F-16 Purchase
In a shift in its foreign policy alignment, Argentina has announced plans to acquire second-hand F-16 fighter jets from Denmark, a move that would represent a clear step toward closer ties with the United States. By opting for the US-built aircraft over alternatives like China's JF-17s, President Javier Milei's government is signalling a strategic pivot away from Beijing and toward Washington.
The deepening engagement between Argentina and the US is further underscored by a series of high-level meetings involving key figures from both countries. CIA Director William Burns recently held talks with Argentine officials in Buenos Aires, focusing on regional security concerns, including on the growing influence of Russia and China. Burns' visit will be followed by the arrival of US Southern Command Chief General Laura Richardson, who is expected to discuss China's presence in the South Atlantic. The F-16 acquisition and the strengthening of ties with the US suggest that Milei's government is increasingly wary of China in the region and is looking to Washington for support in countering Beijing's influence.
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Europe's Elusive Quest for Strategic Autonomy
The concept of European strategic autonomy has gained traction over the past decade, with EU leaders aspiring to reduce dependence on external actors, particularly the United States, in both military and economic spheres. However, the notion of complete autonomy remains largely unattainable in today's interconnected world. Europe's security has relied heavily on US engagement since World War I and the EU continues to face significant challenges in achieving genuine independence.
The war in Ukraine has highlighted Europe's strategic vulnerabilities and its dependency on US military support. While the EU has replaced energy dependence on Russia for the United States, efforts to decrease economic reliance on China have been less successful. The gap between the political ideal of strategic autonomy and its practical application, especially in defence, has become increasingly evident. Without substantial US assistance, the EU is struggling to match Russia's ammunition production rates. As Europe grapples with the geopolitical challenges presented by shifting power dynamics, the limitations of its strategic autonomy have become more apparent.