In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, March 14th
US Launches B5+1 Initiative to Boost Ties with Central Asia, Russian Enriched Uranium Exports to NATO Member States Continue, and other stories.
US Launches B5+1 Initiative to Boost Ties with Central Asia
The United States is pressing ahead with a new initiative aimed at bolstering its influence in Central Asia and fostering regional economic integration. The B5+1 process, which held its inaugural forum in Almaty, Kazakhstan on March 14, marks a shift in US strategy, emphasizing commerce and bottom-up engagement with local entrepreneurs and business leaders to drive reform and connectivity.
The initiative comes as Russia remains embroiled in Ukraine and China's economic growth slows, presenting an opportunity for the US to strengthen its ties with the five Central Asian states — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The B5+1 process seeks to encourage greater cooperation among these nations to break down trade barriers and create a more favourable business environment for US companies, attracting foreign investment and promoting international trade. However, the B5+1 initiative faces several obstacles. Central Asia has a strong centralized political tradition that may limit the private sector's ability to lobby for changes, and the region's governments lack a strong tradition of cooperation on political and economic matters. Additionally, Russia and China, both significant players in the region, are unlikely to remain passive observers.
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Haiti's Leadership Transition Falters
Attempts to install a new transitional government in Haiti appear to be unravelling as various political factions reject the US-backed proposal for a presidential council to manage the country. The Caribbean nation has been grappling with a surge in gang violence that has crippled daily life. In response to the deteriorating security situation, Kenya paused its police deployment and the US deployed a team of marines to its embassy in Port-au-Prince.
The proposed nine-member presidential council, supported by the regional bloc CARICOM, has faced opposition from several prominent Haitian politicians and parties. Other political figures, such as former army colonel Himmler Rébu, have called for alternative leadership arrangements, including having a Supreme Court judge assume power. Meanwhile, supporters of Prime Minister Ariel Henry argue for their preferred version of the transitional council. While the attacks have subsided somewhat, the political deadlock and the failure to reach a consensus on a way forward threaten to prolong the crisis.
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Norway Advances North Sea Carbon Storage Project
Norway is moving forward with an ambitious $2.6 billion project to store captured carbon dioxide beneath the North Sea, as part of its efforts to decarbonize the country's oil and gas industry. The Longship project, set to begin storing CO2 as early as 2025, aims to demonstrate the viability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology on a large scale. Norwegian officials believe this approach will be crucial in reducing emissions from hard-to-abate sectors while supporting a green transition.
In the project's first phase, the “central storage camp” will have the capacity to store 1.5 million metric tonnes of carbon annually for 25 years, with potential expansion to accommodate an additional 5 million tonnes in the second phase. The Norwegian government acknowledges the high costs associated with pioneering CCS projects but expects that the experience gained will help reduce expenses for similar future endeavours. A consortium of oil majors — Norway's Equinor, Britain's Shell, and France's TotalEnergies — is set to manage the transport and storage of the captured carbon through their Northern Lights joint venture. This collaboration aims to facilitate cross-border CO2 transportation and storage.
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Russian Enriched Uranium Exports to NATO Member States Continue
Russia's state-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom has maintained a significant presence in the global enriched uranium market, despite efforts by Western countries to reduce their reliance on Russian supply. Rosatom, through its subsidiaries TVEL and TENEX, accounted for 35% of uranium enrichment services globally in 2022 and provided 44% of global enrichment capacity. While the US, UK, and others have sanctioned parts of Rosatom's leadership and some subsidiaries, the company's enriched uranium exports have continued to flow to major markets.
Trade data reveals that in 2023, Russia exported an estimated $2.7 billion worth of enriched uranium globally. France and Germany were the only European countries to continue importing enriched uranium directly from Russia since February 2022, with France registering a notable increase in Russian imports compared to pre-2022 levels. This raises questions about the effectiveness of individual efforts to diversify away from Russian supply in the interconnected European nuclear fuel market. Meanwhile, the US remains the largest importer of Russian enriched uranium, although proposed legislation aims to halt these imports by 2040. As Western countries work to reduce dependencies on Russian nuclear fuel, Rosatom appears to be pursuing strategies to maintain market access, such as increasing deliveries to third countries that have the capacity to add Russian material to their own exports.
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Belarus Adopts Doctrine Emphasizing Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Belarus has recently revised its military strategy and doctrine, with a heightened focus on the role of tactical nuclear weapons in deterring potential adversaries. In a meeting with national security officials on February 20, President Alexander Lukashenko stressed the need to prepare for the possibility of a third world war and move away from hopes of a diplomatic settlement between Russia and the West. The updated National Security Concept and military doctrine, set to be adopted by the All-Belarusian People's Assembly this spring, reflect this shift in thinking.
While senior Belarusian military officials have been cautious in their public statements, lower-ranking officers have provided more revealing insights into the doctrine's provisions. Colonel Andrei Bogodel, deputy head of the General Staff of the Military Academy of Belarus, suggested that the doctrine allows for pre-emptive nuclear strikes against NATO forces in the event of an imminent threat or inevitable war. This aligns with recent rhetoric from prominent Russian foreign policy experts advocating for such a strategy. The decision-making process for the use of tactical nuclear weapons involves both Russian and Belarusian leadership, with Russia controlling the warheads and Belarus maintaining the delivery systems.
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Organized Crime Thrives in Pacific Island Nations
As geopolitical competition intensifies in the Pacific, organized crime is increasingly taking root in the region's island nations, exploiting their strategic location, limited law enforcement capabilities, and the competing interests of major powers vying for influence. While Pacific island countries have historically enjoyed some of the world's lowest crime rates, the impact of organized crime is on the rise across Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia. As external powers expand their influence in the region, criminal organizations have followed, often operating alongside legitimate investors.
Meanwhile, competing nations are reluctant to pressure these officials to tackle organized crime head-on, fearing the loss of their favour and the high costs associated with enforcement in the remote, dispersed islands. Foreign criminal organizations have capitalized on the islands' increasing accessibility and integration into global supply chains. The influx of criminal actors has had severe consequences for Pacific island populations, including exploitation, environmental degradation, and the introduction of new illicit substances. Addressing these issues through increased law enforcement presence is a daunting task, as the logistics alone place a significant burden on any power centre seeking to combat organized crime in the vast, remote region.