In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, March 9th
In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, March 9th
Iran Discovers Large Lithium Deposit, OPEC+ Reaffirms Commitment to Close Cooperation in Oil Policy, and other stories.
Iran Discovers Large Lithium Deposit
A massive deposit of lithium has been discovered by the Iranian government in the mountainous Hamedan province. According to Mohammad Hadi Ahmadi, an official at Iran's Ministry of Industry, Mines, and Trade, this is the first lithium deposit found in the area. The deposit potentially holds 8.5 million tons of lithium, making it the second-largest reserve in the world, after a 9.2 million-ton deposit in Chile. The discovery means that Iran could now possess almost one-tenth of the world's lithium supply.
Demand for lithium has increased significantly in recent years due to its use in electric vehicle batteries. The quality of the deposit and Iran's ability to mine and export it remain to be seen, but the discovery marks a significant turning point in the future of lithium mining. The discovered lithium deposit lies in the Hamedan province of Iran, a remote and challenging location. As a result, transportation logistics to move the lithium could present significant challenges. Furthermore, if the Iranian government plans to process the lithium domestically, it would require building the necessary infrastructure and supply chains from scratch — a complex and costly process, requiring substantial investments of time, resources, and expertise. Nevertheless, this discovery could have far-reaching implications for the geopolitical landscape of the region.
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Gulf Cooperation Council to Expand Unmanned Surface Vessel Fleet
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries, comprising Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Oman, plan to drastically improve their situational awareness by expanding their unmanned surface vessels (USV) fleet. According to United States Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, who oversees US Naval Forces Central Command, all six GCC states have fully and actively participated in increasing the patrol units of maritime drones.
US naval officials have reportedly set the goal of creating an unmanned fleet of 100 platforms for GCC states by the end of 2023, with other regional and international partners expected to contribute systems to the fleet. The GCC members can use the USVs to patrol more of the Persian Gulf's waters. These waters face a high degree of oil and gas traffic at sea, and USVs can help GCC protect shipments. Artificial intelligence tools and long-endurance USVs are being combined to conduct missions such as maritime surveillance, target identification, and gathering data without colliding with other vessels.
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OPEC+ Reaffirms Commitment to Close Cooperation in Oil Policy
Leaders of the OPEC+ coalition, Saudi Arabia and Russia, have affirmed their commitment to close cooperation in oil policy during a visit of Saudi Arabia's foreign minister to Moscow. The two countries have pledged to further coordinate their efforts in the OPEC+ group to maintain balance and stability on the global energy market. The current OPEC+ agreements will remain in force until the end of the year, after which the group will consider the situation and make new decisions.
Russia has announced its decision to reduce its oil production by 500,000 bpd this month, which may impact its oil and fuel exports. However, OPEC+ delegates have said that the alliance does not plan to change its oil production targets following Russia's announcement. The cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as Saudi Arabia's outreach to other countries, demonstrates the importance of international relationships in the geopolitics of energy. As the world continues to rely on oil and gas for energy, the decisions of major oil-producing countries have a significant impact on the global economy and politics.
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Transnistria Accuses Ukraine of Assassination Attempt on its President
Accusations have been made by pro-Russian separatists in Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova, that Ukraine planned and attempted an assassination of Transnistria’s leader, Vadim Krasnoselsky, and other senior officials.
The Moldovan government has said it will investigate the alleged attack in Transnistria. Officials in Chisinau said they were ready to respond to any security threats and that they were investigating the claims of the alleged attack. Transnistria, a narrow strip of land in the east of Moldova that borders Ukraine, has remained under Moscow's influence since it broke away from Moldova after fighting in 1992, with Russia maintaining a contingent of troops there ever since.
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Conflict Realism: a Pragmatic Approach to the Study of Armed Conflict
The study of armed conflict and its future is a contentious topic that divides various actors and camps. While there are four basic schools of thought in conflict and defence studies, an over-reliance on one camp over others creates unhelpful distortions and implications that can impede the ability to think clearly about war and warfare. In particular, Conflict Realism provides a useful and pragmatic alternative to the three camps that dominate the study of war today.
Futurists, Traditionalists, and Institutionalists view modern and future war through a gilded lens of aspiration, while Conflict Realism offers a more realistic perspective by emphasizing the importance of causal mechanisms in armed conflict. This pragmatic approach provides a useful tool for policymakers, academics, and practitioners preparing for future armed conflict. As the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War continues down the terrible path forecasted by the Conflict Realist school of thought, policymakers, academics, and theorists must accept that Conflict Realism, despite its grim assessments and forecasts, is a force of nature that must be accounted for when thinking about the future of armed conflict.