In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, May 13th
Azeri Troops Stroll Into Armenia, US-Russia Diplomatic Tit-for-Tat Continues, and Partisanship and the Growing Power of the US Presidency
Azerbaijani Soldiers Advance Into Armenia
Azerbaijani armed forces have reportedly crossed the state border of the Republic of Armenia and advanced more than three kilometres into Armenian territory, acting prime minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, said late on Wednesday following an emergency meeting of the country’s security council.
Strangely, the Azeri troops are said to not have brought any weapons as they attempted their surrounding maneouvre on Sev Lich lake (Black Lake) armed with nothing but maps. According to Pashinyan, “the actions of the Azerbaijani armed forces were not accompanied by use of firearms or any other weapon, and they are trying to justify their actions by some maps, which we deem imaginary and false, because at our disposal we have a map approved between Soviet Armenia and Soviet Azerbaijan, and confirmed by the central government, which clearly shows where the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan passes.”
Azeri moves at Sev Lich, around a third of which lies within Azerbaijan, may turn out to be nothing more than sabre-rattling as Baku tries to pressure Armenia and its security guarantor (Russia) to speed up the delivery of concessions made in the Moscow-brokered ceasefire agreement last November. A critical element of the agreement has been the establishment of a land corridor that would run through Armenia connecting Azerbaijan proper to its exclave of Nakhchivan near the Turkish border.
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Washington Stops Issuing Visas to Russians, The Kremlin Responds
Following an announcement that the US Embassy in Russia will stop issuing all non-immigrant visas to Russian nationals from May 12 as part of renewed US sanctions on Russia, the Kremlin has responded by expelling a senior US diplomat and other embassy staff. The US embassy confirmed that Rebecca Ross, who is the official spokeswoman for the embassy in Moscow, has been made persona non grata and must leave the country.
That Ross and nine other American diplomats have until May 21 to leave is largely a response to the US decision to also expel 10 Russian diplomats from Washington as part of imposed sanctions, claiming they were working as spies. The US sanctions also named 32 Russians accused of interfering in the 2020 presidential election as well as imposed restrictions on US investment into Russian Ministry of Finance ruble-denominated OFZ treasury bills.
But this all seems rather counter-productive, since, if relations between Russia and the United States are at a level not seen since the Cold War, shouldn’t a more intensive diplomatic drive be the solution to rapidly deteriorating relations? Indeed, it is difficult to see how a vacuum in dialogue will do much other than to worsen an already hostile relationship going forward.
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The Growing Power of the US Presidency
Throughout the history of the United States, there have been alternating periods during which, at any given time, either Congress or the presidency would exert the most inluence in shaping US foreign policy. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s and the end of the Cold War, Congress began to reassert itself, particularly following the 1994 midterm elections. But with the terrorist attacks of September 11 and the ongoing war against terrorism, the presidency has had a renewed mandate on both domestic and international security issues.
And little has changed since then. Worse still, public discourse regarding the power of the presidency has becoming increasingly partisan in nature, where executive power in the hands of the opposition is dangerous, and in the hands of allies, a legitimate tool.
Donald Trump’s term in office was accompanied by a relentless outburst of commentaries arguing that the presidency had become too powerful, enabling a madman or despot to destroy Americans’ liberties. His critics urged Congress and the courts to reassert themselves before the country slid into authoritarianism. Conversely, when Joe Biden took office, Democrats have done little to rein in the presidency — even though they know that a Trump-like figure, or even Trump himself, may succeed Biden. Instead, they have shifted their institutional focus to other issues.
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