In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, May 4th
Ukraine Targets Russian Fuel Depots Ahead of Offensive, US and Mexico Agree on Tighter Immigration Policies, and other stories.
Russia's Hold on Europe's Nuclear Energy Market in Decline
Russia's position as Europe's main supplier of nuclear energy is diminishing, as more countries seek alternative sources of fuel. Rosatom, the state nuclear agency that supplies fuel for over a dozen European nuclear power plants, has become dependent on countries operating Soviet-built reactors in former Eastern Bloc countries. However, the client list of Rosatom's fuel arm, TVEL, is shrinking, with more countries opting for suppliers like Westinghouse and Framatome.
An alliance between the UK, US, Canada, Japan and France has sought to squeeze Russia out of the international nuclear fuel market. Ukraine has managed to diversify by finding an alternative fuel and certifying it for one of its VVER-1000 units, which was loaded with US-supplied fuel in 2019. Bulgaria and other countries with Soviet-era nuclear power plants are also pushing to diversify, with Bulgaria signing deals with Westinghouse and Framatome to secure continued fuel supplies. Meanwhile, Slovakia has launched a tender for a new supplier and Finland plans to terminate its contract with TVEL in 2030. While some EU countries, such as Hungary, remain hesitant to move away from Rosatom, it is becoming increasingly clear that Russia's hold on Europe's nuclear energy market is in decline.
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Ukraine Targets Russian Fuel Depots Ahead of Offensive
Over the past few days, a series of suspected drone attacks have taken place on Russian fuel supply centres. Local authorities and Russian media outlets claim that the latest attack took place at the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Products plant in Rostov Oblast and the Ilsky refinery in Krasnodar Oblast. These attacks, which are the latest in a series that have taken place over the past several days, are an effort to deplete Russian fuel supplies ahead of Ukraine's anticipated counteroffensive.
While it is unclear what kind of drones were used or where they originated, it seems that long-range drone strikes on Russian soil and in Russian-controlled areas against fuel-related targets are ramping up. The suspected attacks raise questions about the potential involvement of foreign actors and the ability of Ukraine to sustain its offensive. Despite its limited resources and its lack of high-tech weapons, Ukraine has been able to develop a relatively sophisticated drone program, capable of deploying low-cost, low-technology drones that can carry out precision strikes.
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Uncertain Future for Franco-German Ground Combat System Project
The Franco-German project for the Main Ground Combat System (MGCS), a successor to the Leopard 2 battle tank, is facing significant problems that threaten the entire project. The MGCS is touted as a revolutionary project that would incorporate the use of AI for warfare, unmanned turrets, robots, and networked digital reconnaissance devices. However, disagreements over who will be the main contractor for the project's key technological fields have created uncertainty, and completing the project by 2035 no longer seems feasible.
The project was intended to merge the EU's national arms industries into a continental military-industrial base, offset the high costs of the project, and revolutionize the land warfare system. However, the merger of national arms industries has not gone as planned. There are significant disagreements over who would be the main contractor for four of the eight main technological fields initially agreed upon, and German companies are already exploring alternatives, including the Rheinmetall Panther battle tank and the Leopard 2A8. For France, on the other hand, the MGCS project's potential failure would likely result in the production of a French-built Leclerc battle tank.
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Determining the Success of Deterrence in International Relations
Deterrence in international relations is a complex issue, as recent events in Europe and Korea demonstrate. In Ukraine, warnings from the US and its allies failed to deter Russia's military power, prompting considerable aid flows from NATO members. In contrast, South Korea's ambitions to develop nuclear weapons were thwarted by the US stationing of a nuclear-armed submarine in the area, reinforcing the credibility of the US-extended deterrence.
The history of the Cold War emphasizes the importance of credibility for deterrence to work. The US policy of “strategic ambiguity” or “double deterrence” has prevented China from using force against Taiwan while dissuading the island from declaring independence. However, China's growing military power and increased US support for visits to Taiwan have raised concerns about this strategy's efficacy. The US must balance projecting strength and avoiding conflict while deterring China from using force against Taiwan.
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US and Mexico Agree on Tighter Immigration Policies
US and Mexican officials agreed to implement new immigration policies to deter illegal border crossings into the US before the scheduled end of Washington’s Title 42 immigration policy on May 11. The agreement highlights bilateral cooperation on key issues such as migration, despite regular disagreements over the gradual nationalization of Mexico’s energy sector, labour disputes and the fentanyl trade.
Under the new agreement, Mexico will continue to accept migrants from Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba, and Haiti that the US expels, and the US parole program for citizens of these countries will expand to include El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. While it remains to be seen how these new policies will impact migration patterns in the region, the changing immigration policies of both countries may cause chaos at border crossings, including protests and increased attempts to cross the US-Mexico border illegally.