In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, May 5th
Defence Agreement Between Japan and the United Kingdom, China’s Policy Dilemma Over India, Russia's Oil Production in Decline
Defence Agreement Between Japan and the United Kingdom
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson have agreed on a defence cooperation agreement. The deal has been agreed in principle and will see the two allies increase joint military readiness throughout the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The move is a consequence of Tokyo's unease over China's growing power in Japan's near-abroad and London's foreign policy focus on Asia as articulated by its “Indo-Pacific tilt.” The agreement is yet another security committment between maritime powers seeking to contain China's growing power and influence.
The agreement, once ratified, will work to consolidate UK-Japan security cooperation in Southeast Asia as both countries seek to contain Chinese economic and military power. The militaries of Britain and Japan are now on a path to “work more closely together” by facilitating joint troop deployments and military training exercises as part of an agreement that is likely to mirror a similar deal made between Japan and Australia earlier this year. Outside of increased cooperation focused on China, Kishida and Johnson are said to have discussed ways both countries can exert more pressure on Russia while diversifying away from Russian-produced energy.
Read more about this story here.
China’s Policy Dilemma Over India
India has featured prominently in some key diplomatic policy approaches of China in recent years. Beijing has focused on a threefold approach to engagement with other international powers, concentrating diplomatic efforts primarily on engagement with other major powers, cultivating economic and political ties with regional powers, and collaboration on development issues with a broad range of international partners. India often falls within more than one of these approaches, which leads Chinese strategists to approach India through multiple lenses at the same time.
China has approached bilateral ties with India through the lenses of China-India dynamics, the strategic competition between China and the United States, and through the paradigm of economic development. The ongoing border standoff in the disputed Ladakh region is likely a consequence of an underlying conflict between two different Chinese strategies towards India — Beijing's pursuit of diplomacy to bring India onboard the Belt and Road Initiative and a policy of securing a regional order that revolves around Beijing. In effect, Beijing has attempted to check the power of India while at the same time seeking to maintain cordial ties with New Delhi for the fulfilment of Beijing's various self-interested regional and global objectives. Exploiting this reality could provide India with considerable leverage over China if New Delhi can harness its strategic value to Beijing as a means of shaping Beijing’s for India's benefit.
Read more about this story here.
Russia's Oil Production in Decline
Russia is the world’s largest oil exporter as the country ships an estimated 8 million barrels of crude and refined oil products per day to customers across the globe. Yet the unprecedented sanctions imposed on the country has led major oil companies, trading houses, shipping firms and banks to abandon projects in the country. As the European Union prepares a full oil embargo, a significant loss of access to customers for Russian oil products are likely to weigh on the production capacity of Russia's oil sector going forward.
Global energy markets are already said to be short of an estimated 1 million barrels of Russian oil products per day, and some forecasts expect this number to double in the coming months if the EU moves forward with the decision to cut all Russian oil imports heading for EU member states by the end of this year. Some reports indicate that Russian officials expect the country's oil production to fall 17% below the production levels seen before Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, which would mark the single largest production drop for the country since the 1990s. With European buyers already refusing to accept cargo carrying Russian oil products, Russia is forced to return the refused oil shipments back to its own ports and must find ways to safely store the commodity. This has become somewhat of a problem for Russia due to the fact that that storage space for oil products appears to be limited. The lack of storage space likely means that some of Russia's production capacity may be forced to shut down as Moscow finds it increasingly difficult to either sell or store its oil products going forward.
Read more about this story here.