In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, May 27th
Philippines Foreign Policy plays both sides, there’s more to a withdrawal from Afghanistan than just conventional forces, and the Info-Pacific challenge to Russia.
Philippines Foreign Policy Plays Both Sides
The Philippines, an old US ally and more recent friend of China, is awkwardly bouncing one superpower off another on its way to a neutral foreign policy that will give the Southeast Asian country benefits from both sides.
For the majority of the last four years, the government of President Rodrigo Duterte has largely taken an anti-American position, and has at the same time sought friendship with China. But recently, and as the extension of a deal underpinning a US troop presence is being negotiated, the Philippines has shown it can garner benefits from both powers if it plays its cards right.
Though the Philippines was left off a list of U.S. allies in Biden’s interim national security strategy released in March, US State and Defense Department officials insist they’re still working to build the relationship. US and Philippine negotiators concluded talks on the deal underpinning the US troop presence in the Philippines, a move that could soothe the Biden administration’s tense relationship with a key regional ally as competition with China heats up.
Like Asian neighbours such as Indonesia and Vietnam, the strategically located Philippines intends to maintain cooperative relations with both world powers. Such a foreign policy in Asia allows them to get development aid and investment from China while also receive military support from the United States.
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There’s More to a Withdrawal from Afghanistan Than Just Conventional Forces
If Biden is serious about ending ‘forever wars’ perhaps he should couple the US conventional withdrawal in Afghanistan with a drawdown of U.S. direct action operations, or drone strikes outside warzones. While the fact that a withdrawal is happening at all is of course welcome, even a delayed one by September 11, but the forever wars will not cease if the focus of military activity in Afghanistan remains via clandestine or secret operations.
The Trump administration decided to dismantle most of the Obama limits on such drone strike programs. At the time, it was reported the CIA and the military could expand their lists of targets for counterterrorism missions to include lower-level militants and others with no special leadership positions. Proposed raids and strikes additionally no longer needed to undergo high-level vetting and review.
Military and intelligence officials, of course, were enraged at the procedures, believing under threat was their ability to hunt terrorists effectively. Not that such a shift in policy meant a reduction in strikes, as hundreds of drone strikes were still carried out even after the policy shift. But if Biden is serious when he claims he wants to end America’s endless wars, it is not enough to formally terminate the overt U.S. troop presence on conventional battlefields. To truly end endless war, Washington will have to undergo a rethink of its covert, counterterrorism policies.
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The Info-Pacific Challenge to Russia
Over the past decade, Russia’s efforts to pivot to Asia have gathered force as relations with the West have deteriorated. While the focus of this engagement has been on the Asia-Pacific and its existing regional architecture (ASEAN), China has emerged as by far Russia’s most important partner.
The China–Russia relationship increasingly involves key areas of cooperation and convergence, notably on policies designed to oppose the US. Russia has, however, developed a wider regional policy with key Asian states (notably including India), in part to prevent an over-reliance on China. The rise of the Indo-Pacific regional concept represents a challenge to Russia’s established position in Asia.
Dr. Neil Melvin, Director of International Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute, has published a paper which maps out Russia’s opposition to the US-driven concept of the Indo-Pacific. Dr. Melvin explores Russia’s attempts at regional balancing through a multitude of ties with China, India and Japan as well as they ways in which Russia seeks to actively counter Indo-Pacific strategy.
The paper argues that the rise of the Indo-Pacific concept and, in particular, the consolidation of a regional security order around the Quad, is forcing Russia to readjust its regional policies and seek an ever-more elusive regional balance in its relations with Asian countries.
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