In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, May 25th
UK and Chile Strengthen Diplomatic and Economic Ties, Israel and Saudi Arabia Move Closer to Restoring Ties, and other stories.
Chad's Rebel Groups and the Fragile Regional Stability
In the heart of the Sahel, a brewing storm threatens regional stability as Chadian rebels eye Sudan's ongoing conflict as an opportunity for their own gains. Having recently lost their safe haven in Libya, these rebel groups are looking to Darfur, Sudan, as a potential new base, exploiting regional instability to capitalize on lucrative illicit markets.
The conflict in Sudan intensifies the already fragile peace between Sudan and Chad, raising concerns about a potential spill over of violence across the region. The lure of Darfur for Chadian rebels lies in its proximity to Chad's capital and its strategic position as a transit hub for arms, drugs, and other illicit activities. Aligning themselves with General Hemeti's Rapid Support Forces, these rebel groups seek to secure operational bases and financial compensation, potentially fuelling an escalation of conflict in Darfur. The implications extend beyond Sudan's borders, as weapons smuggling along established corridors threatens neighbouring countries such as Libya, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria, aggravating existing security challenges.
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UK and Chile Strengthen Diplomatic and Economic Ties
In a recent high-level political dialogue, United Kingdom's Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and Foreign Minister Alberto van Klaveren of Chile convened to strengthen their diplomatic, economic, financial, trade, business, and defence ties. The meeting highlighted the strong bilateral ties, shared values, and collaborative efforts between the two nations in addressing global challenges, fostering economic growth, and promoting sustainable practices.
The joint statement issued after the meeting emphasized the significance of the UK-Chile trade relationship, particularly with the new opportunities presented by the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The ministers underscored their dedication to the values that underpin the US-led international order as well as their joint efforts to tackle global challenges. Additionally, they discussed cooperation on addressing climate change, demonstrating their commitment to environmental sustainability.
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Trade Relations Between Spain and Algeria Deteriorate
Since the breakdown of relations between Spain and Algeria in June 2022, trade between the two countries has come to a near halt, apart from gas and oil transactions. Algeria imposed sanctions on Spain following its change in position on the Western Sahara issue, leading to an over 80% decline in Spanish exports to Algeria, with only $213 million worth of goods exported from June 2022 to March 2023. The dispute has strained bilateral relations, and Spain's attempts to resolve the crisis through various approaches have been met with resistance from Algeria, which seeks Spain's acceptance of the UN resolution on Western Sahara.
The trade friction has taken a toll on Spanish companies, with many left struggling while other European Union (EU) countries take advantage of the situation. The EU has only managed to secure a commitment from Algeria to study the ongoing commercial restrictions, leaving Spain feeling unsupported. The situation is exacerbated by Spain's dependence on Algeria for energy supplies, with Algeria being its largest gas supplier until the crisis. However, the long-term implications for Algeria's image and desire for deeper relations with Europe may influence the course of the dispute. Meanwhile, Spain is caught in a challenging position, as resolving the crisis with Algeria could jeopardize its delicate relationship with Morocco, which has broader implications beyond energy cooperation.
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Israel and Saudi Arabia Move Closer to Restoring Ties
Reports indicate a notable shift in the relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia, with Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen suggesting that a breakthrough could be achieved by the end of the year. As a significant step, Saudi Arabia is expected to announce the allowance of direct flights for Israel's Muslim citizens to Mecca for the hajj pilgrimage, potentially as early as next month. This development comes as the United States aims to build on the Abraham Accords.
While the Biden administration seeks to advance the Israeli-Saudi relationship, obstacles remain in the path of a potential deal. Saudi Arabia has proposed ambitious demands, including NATO-like security guarantees, support for a civilian nuclear power program, and a relaxation of restrictions on US arms sales. However, closer defense cooperation could face resistance in Congress due to concerns surrounding the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia's human rights record, and its military campaign in Yemen. Despite President Biden's previous criticism of Saudi Arabia, experts argue that it would be in the Saudis' interest to establish ties with Israel under a Democratic president, given the increased Democratic hostility toward Saudi Arabia in recent years.
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Challenges to US Tech Expansion in Africa
As US-based tech companies increase their investments in Africa, they face certain limitations that may hinder their progress in the region. While recognizing the growth potential, concerns persist over their track record on issues like their reluctance to foster partnerships with African companies. In order to gain the trust of African policymakers and citizens, these firms need to demonstrate a genuine commitment to local interests.
The African tech market presents both opportunities and challenges for US companies. While Google's Equiano undersea cable and Amazon's construction of its African headquarters in South Africa showcase their commitment to the region, they face competition from Chinese firms and African-owned fintech companies. US companies have encountered difficulties due to a disregard for African preferences, pricing issues, opposition to data localization, labour practices, and the spread of disinformation on social media platforms.