In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, May 29th
US Seeks Korea Mission Expansion with China Focus, Thai-Cambodian Forces Clash Over Border Trenches, and other stories.
US Seeks Korea Mission Expansion with China Focus
The United States is seeking to "calibrate" US Forces Korea posture to deter China alongside North Korea. Senior defence officials accompanying Secretary Pete Hegseth to Singapore stated that the US will work with Seoul's incoming government to ensure "combined posture credibly contributes to deterrence against both China and North Korea."
Washington's China focus conflicts with South Korean priorities centred on North Korean threats along the 248-kilometre Demilitarized Zone. Seoul's incoming president faces competing pressures: accepting expanded US mission parameters risks Chinese economic retaliation, while rejecting Washington's demands jeopardizes alliance security guarantees. China views USFK expansion as containment escalation, while North Korea could exploit any force redeployment away from the DMZ. Seoul provides $1.2 billion annually supporting 28,500 US troops originally stationed for Korean Peninsula defence, not broader regional operations against China. The mission shift forces South Korea to choose between Chinese economic integration and American security protection as great power competition intensifies across Northeast Asia.
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Indian Security Forces Eliminate Insurgent Leadership in Chhattisgarh
Indian security forces killed Communist Party of India-Maoist general secretary Nambala Keshava Rao during May 17–21 operations in Chhattisgarh's Abujmarh region, eliminating the leadership of India's primary internal insurgency. The operation deployed battalion-strength Central Reserve Police Force units with Air Force helicopter support across the Dandakaranya forest corridor, spanning multiple states. Government forces previously dismantled the CPI-Maoist headquarters at Karregutta hills in April-May campaigns, killing 31 fighters and destroying arms manufacturing facilities.
The Maoist insurgency controls territory across India's mineral-rich central belt, blocking state access to iron ore, coal, and bauxite deposits worth billions in potential revenue. Affected districts decreased from 126 in 2010 to 38 in 2024 as Delhi deployed overwhelming force ratios against guerrilla formations reduced to company and platoon strength. The insurgency's tribal recruitment base in Chhattisgarh lacks ideological cohesion compared to communist strongholds in West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh, making it vulnerable to state co-optation through infrastructure development. The remaining Central Committee leadership faces strategic choices between reorganization under new command or ceasefire negotiations as military pressure eliminates their operational sanctuary across state boundaries.
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Israel Approves 22 West Bank Settlements
Israel's Defense Ministry approved 22 new West Bank settlements on May 29, 2025, including construction at sites evacuated during 2005 Gaza disengagement and legalization of nine existing unauthorized outposts. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who controls West Bank civil administration, announced the decision creates "strategic change" toward expanded construction. Approved sites include Mount Ebal near Nablus and previously dismantled Homesh outpost.
The settlement expansion advances Israel's control over Area C, comprising 60% of West Bank territory under Israeli military administration per Oslo Accords. Smotrich has applied Israeli civil law to settlements rather than military occupation law, effectively treating them as Israeli territory. The approvals reverse 2005 disengagement policies that removed settlements from Gaza and northern West Bank as part of broader territorial arrangements. Hundreds of Palestinians have died in settler attacks and military operations since October 2023, while Palestinian Authority territorial control diminishes as Israel establishes permanent infrastructure across contested areas.
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Iran Seeks Indirect Contact with Syria Through Mediation
Iran maintains "indirect" communication with Syria's Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham government through Turkish and Qatari intermediaries, Iranian Foreign Ministry envoy Mohammad Sheibani confirmed May 20, 2025. Assad's December 2024 collapse eliminated Iran's closest Arab ally after decades of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps deployments and military support. Iran's last direct Syrian engagement occurred January 2025, while China hosted Syrian leadership in March, indicating regional realignment away from Tehran's influence.
Syria requires stable relations with Iraq and Lebanon for trade, water, and energy agreements, preventing complete Iranian antagonism despite Western priorities. Turkey and Qatar mediate Iran-Syria dialogue to prevent total Iranian exclusion while maintaining regional balance after investing in Syria's post-Assad transition. Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia now serve as Syria's primary regional partners, while Iran requires Sunni intermediaries for Syrian access. This role reversal is one way in which Iran's regional influence has reduced following Hezbollah's 2023-2024 degradation and Assad's fall, forcing Tehran into reactive diplomacy rather than direct Levantine power projection.
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China Undercuts Russia's Kazakhstan Nuclear Plant Bid by Half
China National Nuclear Corp offered to build Kazakhstan's first nuclear power plant for $5.5 billion, undercutting competing bids from Russia's Rosatom and firms from South Korea and France by $6.5-9.5 billion. CNNC proposes constructing two HPR-1000 reactors generating 2.4 gigawatts annually at Lake Balkhash, 300 kilometres northeast of Almaty. Chinese officials met with Kazakhstan's Atomic Energy Agency head Almasadam Satkaliyev on May 26, offering comprehensive nuclear fuel cycle management and technical infrastructure development.
Kazakhstan seeks nuclear power to address regional energy shortages and reduce electricity imports while pursuing carbon neutrality by 2060. The bidding competition occurs as Kazakhstan repositions between major powers, with Astana pressuring Rosatom to divest uranium mining stakes to Chinese entities in December 2024. Russia's last engagement with Kazakh nuclear officials occurred in January 2025, while Chinese President met CNNC chief Shen Yanfeng in March. Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vassilenko stated preference for multinational consortiums operating different reactor types across multiple planned facilities. China's significant cost advantage and Kazakhstan's energy diversification strategy favour CNNC, though Kazakh officials cite technological reliability and environmental safety as additional selection criteria beyond price.
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Thai-Cambodian Forces Clash Over Border Trenches
Thai and Cambodian forces exchanged gunfire for approximately 10 minutes on May 28, 2025, in the contested Chong Bok area near Thailand's Ubon Ratchathani province. Cambodia's Defence Ministry accused Thai forces of firing on a trench within a Cambodian army base, while Thailand's army claimed Cambodian troops had entered disputed territory first. Thai commander Boonsin Phadklang stated Thailand will maintain troop positions until Cambodia withdraws forces from the disputed area, where Cambodian soldiers have constructed defensive trenches.
Both Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Hun Manet require nationalist positioning to maintain domestic support. The 817-kilometre Thai-Cambodian border contains multiple contested areas around ancient temple complexes, where French colonial demarcation has created lingering territorial disputes. Military clashes killed dozens between 2008-2011, with February 2025 stand-offs at Ta Moan Thom temple preceding this incident. Military-to-military discussions scheduled for May 31 will likely establish temporary buffer zones and communication protocols, though 4.6 square kilometres near Preah Vihear temple remain disputed without international arbitration resolution.