In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, May 26th
US SOCOM Readjusts to Great Power Conflict, Rises in Iraq's Oil Production Depend on Development, US Targets Iranian-Russian Oil Transfers
US SOCOM Readjusts to Great Power Conflict
After over two decades of focusing its missions around counterterrorism operations, the United States Special Operations Command (SOCOM) is returning to its traditional role of training foreign special operations forces and developing civil and military relationships with armed forces residing in foreign nations. Over two decades of counterterrorism operations for the US government has seen the special forces flourish and grow to a highly-trained and well-equipped military force which is effective at conducting clandestine operations anywhere in the world.
Before 2001, SOCOM specialized in training the troops of allied nations of the US government. SOCOM has been greatly expanded since 2001, with the budget for the organization rising from $3.1 billion at the start of US military operations in Afghanistan to $12.6 billion per year during the 2022 budget. Two decades of conducting the “Global War on Terror” has transformed SOCOM as a highly-capable counterterrorism force, but in recent years this focus has been changing. SOCOM is increasingly drawing down counterterrorism efforts against individual insurgents in favour of increased grey zone operations against near-peer competitors like China and Russia.
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Rises in Iraq's Oil Production Depend on Development
Iraq is one of the most underdeveloped oil producers in the Middle East. Yet this is changing rapidly as the country has the potential to significantly boost production and raise state revenues from the sale of oil. Some analysts have estimated that Iraq possesses roughly 145 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves, which is close to 9 percent of the world’s entire proven reserves. With increased development in energy projects, Iraq could raise production levels and increase global supplies in the process.
Although Iraq is currently producing an estimated 4.2 million barrels of oil per day, this number is expected to rise sharply once field outages are resolved. Last August, Iraq approved plans to enable British Petroleum to structure its operations in the Rumaila oil field for joint drilling with China National Petroleum Corp. Foreign energy firms are coming to play an outsized role in Iraq's energy sector, and this trend is set to continue as more foreign investment goes toward development projects which promise increased oil revenues. Further exploration and development is likely to bring substantial wealth to state coffers if contracts are negotiated on favourable terms.
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US Targets Iranian-Russian Oil Transfers
The US Treasury Department has announced a new set of sanctions targeting what Washington calls an “oil-smuggling and money-laundering” network being operated by Iran and Russia. Washington has imposed sanctions on individuals connected to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and has warned that anyone purchasing oil from Iran will face the prospect of US sanctions.
According to the Treasury Department, the oil transfer network is backed by the Russian government and Russian state-run enterprises, which have together acted as a “critical element of Iran’s oil revenue generation.” Among the sanctioned entities are also Chinese companies and one former Afghan diplomat, while other companies involved in the alleged collaboration to ship Iranian oil to companies in Europe without triggering sanctions also appear on the list. Along with the announced sanctions, Washington made clear it will continue to strictly enforce sanctions on Iran’s oil trade, and will subject to sanctions anyone purchasing oil from Iran.
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