In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, May 20th
Russian State Duma Votes to Leave Open Skies Treaty, Drought in Brazil Impacts Commodity Prices, and the US Air Force Unveils 2022 Construction Plans
Following US Withdrawal, Russian Lower House Votes to Exit Open Skies Treaty
Last year, the Trump administration pulled out of the Treaty on Open Skies, a late Cold War-era agreement designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence between adversaries by giving all participants a direct role in gathering information via overhead flights about military forces and activities of concern to them.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said at the time that “Russia has flagrantly and continuously violated the treaty in various ways for years. This is not a story exclusive to just the treaty on Open Skies, unfortunately, for Russia has been a serial violator of many of its arms control obligations and commitments.”
Yesterday, the Russian State Duma, following in the footsteps of the United States, voted to withdraw from the international treaty. Moscow has often vocally deplored the US withdrawal, warning that it will erode global security by making it more difficult for governments to interpret the intentions of other nations, particularly amid heightened US-Russia tensions.
Moscow’s attempts at obtaining guarantees from NATO member states that they wouldn’t hand over data collected from observation flights to the US as a condition for staying in the pact have been unsuccessful, which has paved the way for the Russian withdrawal. The withdrawal will have to be approved by the Federation Council of Russia before the country’s exit from the treaty is confirmed.
The concept of mutual aerial observation was initially proposed to Soviet Premier Nikolai Bulganin at the Geneva Conference of 1955 by US President Dwight D. Eisenhower, but didn’t materialise until 1989, when it was negotiated by the then-members of NATO and the Warsaw Pact, with the agreement signed in Helsinki, Finland, on March 24, 1992. More than 1500 flights aimed at fostering transparency and allowing for the monitoring of arms control and other agreements have been conducted under the treaty since it took effect in 2002.
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Drought in Brazil Impacts Commodities Market
In central Brazil, heat and dryness have been the running theme over the last couple of weeks, forcing a drastic decrease of subsoil moisture across the region. Rainfall was disastrously low for many areas in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais from January to April. The worst hit areas received less than half of normal precipitation at a critical time when coffee plants need moisture for the beans to grow. This has had an adverse effect on the supply of a few key commodities and there appears to be no end in sight as poor weather conditions continue in central Brazil.
While a dry spell is typical for this time of year in Brazil, it’s expected to last longer than usual. Regular rains will return to the region between October and November, instead of September, said Celso Oliveira, a meteorologist at Somar Meteorologia. About 30% of Brazil’s orange crop and 15% of arabica coffee fields are irrigated, and this drought will heavily impact a significant portion of Brazil’s exports.
And the markets have reacted to the supply shortages caused by the drought. The price of corn, which makes up for $179 million in annual exports for Brazil, have surged over the last month, hitting a peak of $7.56 per bushel — a price not seen since 2013. Coffee prices, which make up a far larger $416 million in annual exports, have also been heavily impacted by the drought, with the price of Coffee reaching a high of $1.52 — a price not seen since 2017.
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US Air Force and Space Force 2022 Construction Funds to Focus on Europe, the Pacific and Nukes
The Air Force and Space Force of the United States plans to spend next year’s military construction budget toward bolstering its facilities across Europe and the Indo-Pacific, as well as preparing to bring on a new generation of nuclear weapons.
Jennifer Miller and Brig. Gen. William Kale have submitted a written statement to a House of Representatives Appropriations subcommittee in which they state that the Air Force and Space Force remain “committed to the European Deterrence Initiative framework to reassure NATO allies and other European partners of United States commitment to collective security and territorial integrity.”
For an accurate estimation of the cost of such plans we’ll have to wait until President Biden’s full budget request, which is due later this month. Last year, the Air Force received $5.3 billion for military construction — nearly four times more than the $1.4 billion it requested in 2021. U.S. military leaders are said to be particularly concerned about European and Pacific facilities as the Defense Department looks to counter Russian influence and outpace China.
Upcoming projects for the Air Force are said to include a cargo pad that can support explosives, a new fuel storage facility, a command-and-control squadron facility, and more. The Air Force envisions Campia Turzii, an airbase in Romania, as a “rotational hub” where deployed troops and aircraft will cycle through Europe. The US Air Force is also laying the foundations for an overhaul of intercontinental ballistic missile facilities and hangars across Europe and the Pacific.
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