In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, May 11th
UK Sends Long-Range Cruise Missiles to Ukraine, US Accuses South Africa of Covert Arms Supplies to Russia, and other stories.
UK Sends Long-Range Cruise Missiles to Ukraine
Ukraine's military has received a significant boost to its long-range strike capability through the provision of multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles by the United Kingdom. Developed jointly by the UK and France, these stealthy missiles are usually launched from the air and offer a firing range of over 250km. The deployment of these missiles aligns with Ukraine's plans to mount a counteroffensive, allowing them to silently strike deep behind Russian lines.
The delivery of Storm Shadow missiles by the UK complements previous long-range systems donated to Ukraine, including HIMARS and Harpoon missiles, as well as Ukraine's own Neptune cruise missiles. While the US has pledged ongoing support, Ukraine's requests for longer-range missiles like ATACMS have yet to be fulfilled. Nevertheless, reports indicate that the US is preparing to send its own long-range missiles, indicating a coordinated effort among NATO allies to enhance Ukraine's defensive capabilities.
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UAE Strengthens Nuclear Energy Partnerships with China
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has taken a significant step towards its nuclear energy goals by signing agreements with Chinese nuclear organizations. The Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation inked memorandums of understanding with China's Nuclear Power Operations Research Institute, the China National Nuclear Corporation Overseas, and the China Nuclear Energy Industry Corporation.
China is playing an increasingly significant role in the UAE's energy diversification plans. As Middle Eastern countries shift towards cleaner energy sources, China's expertise, technology, and industry knowledge are expected to become increasingly prominent. The UAE-China energy partnership is poised to benefit both economic actors, with government entities also capitalizing on the collaboration. While the development of nuclear energy in the Middle East and North Africa is still in its early stages, countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, and Jordan have expressed ambitions in this area. The UAE aims to leverage partnerships with various countries to realize its nuclear goals.
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EU Prepares Extraterritorial Sanctions
The European Union (EU) is preparing to adopt a new sanctions regime that includes the imposition of extraterritorial punitive measures on enterprises of third countries, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and possibly Turkey. These measures aim to address the resale of sanctioned EU goods to Russia. While the EU believes this approach is necessary to prevent Russia from obtaining sanctioned goods through third countries, it represents a departure from international law, which does not grant any state jurisdiction over foreign sovereign territory.
The introduction of extraterritorial sanctions by the EU is likely to spark diplomatic conflicts with the affected countries. This could lead to countermeasures and the formation of counter-alliances, with the UAE already seeking closer ties with China and becoming a dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), while also expressing interest in joining the BRICS alliance. Moreover, the imposition of these punitive measures could have wider implications. As the EU pursues its new sanctions regime, it is likely to face resistance and retaliation from affected countries, potentially reshaping alliances as states seek alternative economic and financial arrangements.
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China's Support to Iran Strengthens Oil Ties
Recent events have shed light on the interconnectedness of political manoeuvrings and disruptions in the oil markets. China has provided tacit support to Iran, sending a clear message that it will not tolerate interference from the United States in its dealings with Iran and the flow of oil between the two countries. Through its comprehensive cooperation agreement with Iran, China has gained access to key elements of Iran's energy, economic, and military sectors. This newfound access allows China to secure oil movements, particularly through the strategic chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
The recent seizures of oil tankers by Iran, although politically motivated, demonstrate China's indifference to the potential financial and economic fallout from higher oil prices. Under the 25-year agreement, China enjoys substantial discounts on Iranian oil prices, and it has been demanding additional discounts since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. China's payments to Iran are made in non-convertible Yuan and other currencies, which incentivize Iran to purchase goods from countries indebted to China. Moreover, China has shifted its approach and no longer feels the need to disguise its significant oil imports from Iran, as it did in the past through rebranding and deceptive shipping practices.
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US Accuses South Africa of Covert Arms Supplies to Russia
A foreign policy crisis has erupted for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa as the United States accuses the country of covertly supplying arms to Russia. The US ambassador to South Africa has asserted that weapons and ammunition were loaded onto the Russian vessel Lady R, which docked at Simon's Town naval dockyard near Cape Town in December. Ramaphosa acknowledged that the matter is being investigated but provided no further details.
While South Africa officially denied approving any arms sales to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, the docking of the Lady R and its suspected cargo has intensified the foreign policy crisis for President Ramaphosa. With diplomatic tensions rising, South Africa faces the challenge of balancing its international relationships and preserving its trade links while addressing the accusations levelled by the United States. The scandal also threatens to overshadow South Africa's efforts to preserve trade links and its non-aligned position over Ukraine.