In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, May 15th
Supercavitating Torpedoes Challenge Naval Force Structures, Militant Factions Target Nigeria-Cameroon Trade Infrastructure, and other stories.
Supercavitating Torpedoes Challenge Naval Force Structures
Russian VA-111 Shkval and Iranian Hoot torpedoes travel at 200+ knots compared to conventional torpedoes' 50-knot speeds, using gas bubble generation to reduce underwater drag. Russia developed the Shkval during the late Soviet period as a straight-line, high-speed projectile designed to strike submarines and surface vessels before defensive responses could activate. Iran reverse-engineered the technology to create the Hoot torpedo, enabling deployment of high-speed weapons from small platforms including speedboats and coastal launchers.
Supercavitating torpedoes shift naval engagement dynamics by compressing reaction timelines to seconds rather than minutes. Large fleet advantages diminish when smaller powers can deploy weapons from diverse platforms — submarines, unmanned underwater vehicles, and fixed coastal batteries — that travel four times faster than existing torpedoes. The technology particularly suits littoral warfare in constrained waterways like the South China Sea and Persian Gulf, where traditional sonar systems operate less effectively and manoeuvring space is limited. Russia continues Shkval refinements, including nuclear-tipped variants for strategic deterrence, while China develops parallel capabilities.
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European Ultimatum to Russia Collapses Without US Backing
Macron, Starmer, and Merz issued a 30-day ultimatum demanding a Russian ceasefire by May 12 after visiting Zelenskyy. Putin rejected the European demand while agreeing to Istanbul talks without preconditions, dispatching aide Vladimir Medinsky who negotiated the 2022 framework. The United States bypassed European strategy by calling for immediate negotiations, forcing Zelenskyy's participation despite European insistence on ceasefire-first approaches. European leaders threatened “massive sanctions” and troop deployments that lacked substance or implementation timelines.
Europe's 17th sanctions package proved so diluted that Hungary and Slovakia — previous sanctions opponents — didn't obstruct it. Measures targeting chemical exports, shadow fleet tankers, and Russian officials lack enforcement mechanisms without US coordination. Macron admitted France has already exhausted its stockpiles to supply further aid to Ukraine, while legal barriers still prevent seizing frozen Russian assets. His troop deployment proposal excludes combat roles and requires Russian consent — rendering it meaningless theatre. Gas phase-outs extend to 2027 amid internal divisions preventing coordinated action. European threats collapse without American backing, positioning Washington to either claim credit for successful talks or dictate escalation pathways if negotiations fail.
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Houthis Nearly Intercept F-35 Using Infrared Air Defence Systems
Houthi forces nearly downed a U.S. F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and reportedly several F-16 Vipers during spring 2025 airstrikes in Yemen. The Yemeni militants deployed mobile surface-to-air missile systems, including repurposed R-73 and R-27 air-to-air missiles (designated Thaqib-1/2) and Iranian-designed Saqr/358 loitering missiles with infrared seekers. These passive infrared sensors provide no radar warning to targeted aircraft, eliminating advance threat detection capabilities normally available to F-35 pilots through the AN/ASQ-239 electronic warfare suite. The engagement forced increased reliance on costly stand-off munitions and stealthy aircraft during Operation Rough Rider.
The near-intercept exposes vulnerabilities in stealth aircraft against asymmetric air defence networks, mixing mobile platforms with passive sensors. Unlike radar-guided systems, infrared sensors emit no detectable signals, preventing electronic warfare countermeasures until missile launch. The F-35's AN/AAQ-37 Distributed Aperture System can detect incoming missiles through six infrared cameras, but reaction time remains minimal without advance warning. Mobile 2K12 Kub (SA-6) systems and improvised infrared sensors enable unpredictable threat emergence, degrading the effectiveness of pre-planned routes optimized for stealth aircraft survivability. China and Russia likely observe these engagements for insights into countering Western stealth technology through proliferating infrared search and track systems integrated into networked air defence networks.
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Netherlands Purchases 46 Leopard 2A8 Tanks
The Netherlands has contracted German firm KNDS for 46 Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks worth €1 billion, with deliveries from 2028-2031. The Dutch disbanded their last tank units in 2011 and sold remaining Leopard 2A6 tanks to Finland in 2014, eliminating heavy armour from their forces. Since 2015, Dutch personnel operated leased German 2A6 tanks within the mixed 414 Tank Battalion at Bergen-Hohne training area. The new 2A8 variant features upgraded transmission, improved barrel, enhanced IED protection, and Israel's EuroTrophy active protection system.
The purchase reverses post-Cold War armour reductions. Dense Dutch territory lacks space for tank training, forcing continued reliance on German facilities at Bergen-Hohne for the 500-person battalion. The Leopard 2 operates across 15 European nations, enabling standardized maintenance and ammunition compatibility across NATO's eastern approaches. Total program costs reach €2.5 billion, including spare parts and training systems. Netherlands defence spending increased from €21.4 billion to €22 billion in 2025, targeting €24 billion annually. The new battalion will integrate unmanned components, demonstrating NATO's shift toward autonomous systems supporting traditional armour platforms.
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Militant Factions Target Nigeria-Cameroon Trade Infrastructure
Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province systematically attack commercial vehicles and border installations along the 1,690-kilometre Nigeria-Cameroon frontier, exploiting reopened trade routes that carry goods from Nigeria's economic centres to landlocked Chad, Central African Republic and Sudan. The militants use explosives-laden drones and coordinated night raids targeting military bases at Wulgo and Wajiroko in Nigeria's Borno State, while conducting vehicle ambushes along the Banki-Amchidé-Fotokol-Limani corridor.
The attacks exploit trade infrastructure essential for Central African economic connectivity. Cameroon's Far North Region collects customs revenue on transit goods while Nigeria's Borno State benefits from cross-border commerce, yet the same corridors enable militant mobility across international boundaries. The Multinational Joint Task Force operates across four countries but lacks integrated air support and intelligence coordination to counter groups that exploit territorial sovereignty gaps. Recent drone attacks mark a tactical evolution beyond previous capabilities as militants adapt to state security measures. France's Sahel withdrawal reduces external counterterrorism support, while regional militaries struggle to secure trade arteries linking Atlantic ports to Central Africa's interior markets.
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China-Russia Sign 20+ Agreements Building Alternative to US System
Xi Jinping and Putin signed over 20 cooperation agreements in Moscow on May 8, 2025, advancing functional coordination in artificial intelligence, energy, cross-border payments, and digital infrastructure. Three joint statements framed China-Russia partnership as defence against US hegemony. The summit moved beyond symbolic alignment toward operational bloc-building, integrating the Belt and Road Initiative with Eurasian Economic Union to bypass Western financial systems and maritime choke points. China and Russia agreed to expand yuan-based trade settlement, interbank transactions, and coordinated technology standards across sectors under Western sanctions.
The partnership exhibits growing asymmetry favouring Beijing as Russia's commodity dependence deepens. Military cooperation remains “special” but bounded — avoiding explicit Ukraine references while deepening joint exercises and maritime patrols. Moscow retains caution over Arctic sovereignty sharing, despite expanded cooperation commitments. China will test bloc architecture at upcoming BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization summits, promoting renminbi internationalization and regional security frameworks. Economic integration accelerates through investment protection treaties and supply chain coordination, while competing Central Asian interests constrain how far rhetorical convergence translates into operational alternatives to US-led institutions. The success of these parallel systems depends on maintaining momentum without triggering Western counter-responses that could fragment the emerging bloc structure.