In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, November 4th
UN Security Council Extends Mandate of EU Forces in Bosnia and The Dilemma of Simultaneous China & Taiwan CPTPP Applications
UN Security Council Extends Mandate of EU Forces in Bosnia
A recent UN Security Council meeting unanimously adopted resolution 2604 (2021) (to be issued as document S/RES/2604(2021)). Meeting amid heightened political tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the 15-member Council extended the mandate of the European Union-led stabilization force EUFOR-Althea for another year. The Council also decided to renew its authorization to maintain a NATO headquarters in Bosnia over the same period of time. EUFOR-Althea is mandated to help implement the military aspects of the Dayton Peace Agreement signed in Paris in 1995, and receives assistance from the NATO headquarters operating in the region.
There were sharp divisions between Council members leading up to the meetings. Both Moscow and Beijing protested at the appointment of Christian Schmidt, whose report was the subject of various complaints. In the end, a compromise was found, and the council was able to declare a unanimous decision. Nevertheless, representatives of the relevant parties each made their differing positions known via their respective statements. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s representative said the country is facing its greatest existential threat of the post-war period because Republika Srpska’s actions could “turn the clock back 15 years,” Serbia’s delegate stressed that only regional actors should be at the centre of continued implementation of the Dayton Agreement.
There were differences of opinion between relevant international players too. The Russian Federation’s representative warned that the worsening political situation in Bosnia was being compounded by several external forces. On the other hand, the representative of the United States indicated that local forces were at fault for a rise in tensions, namely Republika Srpska’s recent threats to withdraw from the tripartite government’s institutions, adding that such assertions represent “a dangerous path” for both the country and the region. Meanwhile, the Head of the EU Delegation expressed regret over the lack of compliance between Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Constitution with the European Convention on Human Rights. That the UN-sanctioned EU mission is extended for a further year buys time for all parties to push for a more permanent solution a year from now.
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The Dilemma of Simultaneous China & Taiwan CPTPP Applications
Only two days after China formally announced its intention to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Taiwan registered its own formal interest as well. This scenario of a simultaneous membership bid by both Beijing and Taipei puts the CPTPP members in an awkward position, and the admission process for either power will somehow have to avoid getting bogged down in a spat over sovereignty. At the same time, the way entry negotiations ought to be approached is up in the air as each offers a compelling case for their respective membership bids.
The Taiwanese economy has economic regulations and business practices that are closer aligned to those standards practiced by existing CPTPP members. But China's application will come under fire for the country's many ststate-owned enterprises and an increasingly regulated private sector. Nevertheless, China is the world's second-largest market and plays a huge role in the Indo-Pacific regional economy. And Beijing has expressed a willingness to compromise, signalling that it is open to negotiations on industrial subsidies and state-owned enterprises as part of the CPTPP admission process. Xi Jinping has made clear that China's intentions are to "firmly promote high-standard opening up" of their economy.
Views remain divided on how to proceed. In juggling these two applications, some favour taking China's bid seriously as its massive market could stimulate the economies of the region with few trade barricades and trade standardization. Others want to keep China economically isolated in the belief that CPTPP membership would work to enhance Beijing's regional power. Many CPTPP still do not recognise Taiwan as a sovereign country, with the majority of the support for Taiwan’s candidacy coming from Japan. Washington is unlikely to re-join the pact, and may look to support Japanese efforts in making negotiations more difficult for Beijing.
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