In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, November 21st
India's Groundwater Depletion Threatens Security and Food Production, Iran Expands Energy Influence in South Caucasus, and other stories.
UN Plastic Treaty Talks Stall as Nations Divide Over Production Controls
The Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) approaches its fifth session in Busan, South Korea, following two years of negotiations mandated by the UN Environment Assembly in March 2022. Global plastic production exceeds 400 million tons annually and is projected to triple over 40 years, with only 9% recycled and 22% mismanaged. The negotiations have progressed through sessions marked by procedural conflicts and expanding complexity. The current negotiating text has grown to a 73-page document with 3,474 opening brackets, reflecting deep divisions.
The negotiations face structural challenges. The fundamental divide between production-focused regulation advocates and those favouring waste management approaches reflects deeper economic interests, particularly in fossil fuel industries. With the Busan session unlikely to achieve consensus, three potential paths emerge: continued negotiations through additional INC-5 sessions, forcing a two-thirds majority vote (risking major power withdrawal), or pursuing an independent diplomatic conference following the Ottawa landmine treaty model. Each option carries significant diplomatic and practical implications for global plastic pollution control.
Read more about this story here.
India's Groundwater Depletion Threatens Security and Food Production
India faces a severe water crisis, managing only 4% of global water resources despite hosting 18% of the world's population. Per capita water availability is projected to decrease from 1,486 cubic meters in 2021 to 1,367 cubic meters by 2031. India is the world's largest groundwater consumer, with 30% of its freshwater stored in aquifers that support 60% of irrigated agriculture and 85% of drinking water supply.
The water crisis threatens India's social, economic, and political stability through multiple interconnected pathways. Agricultural productivity faces a projected 20% decrease in staple crop yields by mid-century, prompting protective measures like rice export restrictions. With agriculture employing 45.76% of the workforce, water scarcity threatens rural livelihoods, potentially accelerating urban migration. Interstate water disputes will likely intensify, particularly between upstream states (Punjab, Haryana) and downstream regions (Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal). The absence of coordinated national policy suggests increasing challenges for foreign investment and manufacturing growth.
Read more about this story here.
Iran Expands Energy Influence in South Caucasus
The Iran-Armenia energy partnership centres on a gas-for-electricity swap agreement, originally signed in 2004 and recently extended to 2030. A 140-kilometre pipeline connects Tabriz to Armenia's Syunik province, facilitating Iran's export of 365 million cubic meters of gas annually in exchange for electricity at a rate of 3 kilowatt-hours per cubic meter. A third Armenia-Iran power transmission line, stretching 280 kilometres from Razdan to the Iranian border, is nearing completion.
Iran is seeking to expand influence in the South Caucasus while facing competition from Russia's dominant position in Armenia's energy sector. Gazprom's control over Armenia's gas infrastructure, exemplified by the reduction of the Iran-Armenia pipeline diameter from 1,420 mm to 700 mm, effectively prevents Iran from accessing European markets. Armenia's potential to diversify its energy sources depends heavily on regional political developments, including possible peace agreements with Azerbaijan and normalized relations with Turkey. Iran's ability to leverage this partnership is constrained by international sanctions limiting foreign investment in its gas infrastructure and its domestic energy imbalances, requiring gas imports from Turkmenistan and Russia to meet internal demand.
Read more about this story here.
India Leads Three-Nation Power Trading Agreement in South Asia
On November 15, 2023, a trilateral power-sharing agreement between India, Nepal, and Bangladesh became operational, enabling Nepal to export 40 MW of hydropower to Bangladesh through Indian power infrastructure. This represents South Asia's first trilateral hydropower project. The three nations are also jointly developing the 683 MW Sunkoshi-3 hydropower project, located 60 km from Kathmandu. India and Nepal have existing bilateral energy agreements, including India's commitment to purchase 10,000 MW of hydropower from Nepal over 10 years and a $45 million cross-border oil pipeline from Motihari to Amalekhunj, inaugurated in September 2019, saving Nepal $8.7 million annually in transport costs.
This cooperation emerges despite strained diplomatic relations, with India reportedly maintaining distance from Nepal's Prime Minister Oli and experiencing tensions with Bangladesh's interim government following Sheikh Hasina's departure. The project demonstrates how economic imperatives can transcend political friction in South Asia, where hydropower, aviation, and transit connectivity remains historically poor. India's strategic position as the region's geographical centre enables it to function as an energy trading hub, though challenges persist — exemplified by Adani Power's recent 60% supply reduction to Bangladesh over $800 million in unpaid dues.
Read more about this story here.
US Challenges Russian Arctic Dominance
The United States Department of Defense's June 2024 Arctic Strategy marks a significant shift in regional engagement, coinciding with expanded sanctions affecting Russia's Arctic LNG operations. Russia's historical dominance in the region encompasses 53% of Arctic coastline, with the area providing 10% of its GDP and 20% of its exports, primarily from energy resources. The US has enhanced its regional presence through multiple vectors: establishing the 11,000-strong 11th Airborne Division in Alaska, maintaining the strategic Pituffik Space Base in Greenland, and developing the ICE Pact with Canada and Finland for icebreaker production.
The evolving Arctic dynamic represents a shift from Russia's historical regional dominance. US strategy combines direct military presence with alliance-based force multiplication through NATO, particularly leveraging Nordic expertise in Arctic operations. Economic pressure through sanctions on Russian LNG projects intersects with military posturing, impacting Russia's ability to maintain its Arctic infrastructure and military modernization programs. The integration of new NATO members Finland and Sweden fundamentally alters the regional balance, providing the alliance with enhanced Arctic warfare capabilities and strategic depth. This multifaceted approach — combining economic pressure, military presence, and alliance expansion — indicates a systematic effort to reshape Arctic power dynamics.
Read more about this story here.
Turkey and Israel's Economic Ties Persist
The Israel-Turkey relationship faces significant strain following Israel's military operations in Gaza. Despite President Erdoğan's recent declaration of severed relations, Israel's foreign ministry claims no formal change in status.
The relationship's current crisis reflects ideological shifts in both nations: Israel's ultra-conservative coalition pursuing expansionist policies and Turkey's AK Party emphasizing Islamic values and Palestinian rights since 2002. Despite tensions, geoeconomic factors, particularly Eastern Mediterranean energy politics, create enduring mutual interests that resist complete diplomatic rupture. Turkey's complex role as an interlocutor with Hamas and regional influence moderates the severity of the break. Israel's counter-strategy of strengthening ties with Greece, Cyprus, and Kurdish factions demonstrates regional power realignment.