In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, November 16th
Finland Closes Some Border Crossings with Russia, France Issues Arrest Warrant for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and other stories.
Finland Closes Some Border Crossings with Russia
In response to a significant surge in undocumented migrants appearing at Finnish checkpoints, Finland has announced the closure of half of its border crossings with Russia. Prime Minister Petteri Orpo attributes the influx to orchestrated efforts, accusing Moscow of actively encouraging, helping, and organizing migrants to head for the border and claim asylum.
Recent events at the Finnish-Russian border have led to the Finnish government accusing Russia of hybrid warfare. Plans for a 200-kilometre border fence with enhanced electronic surveillance equipment are now underway, reflecting Finland's proactive measures to fortify its border security. The closure of border crossings may turn out to be just the first step, with Interior Minister Mari Rantanen emphasizing the prioritization of national sovereignty by floating the possibility of a complete border shutdown. The situation remains fluid, and the Finnish government expresses readiness to implement even stronger measures if required.
Read more about this story here.
Limited Progress on Fundamental Differences in US-China Talks
Presidents Biden and Xi held talks seeking to stabilize fraught US-China relations and prevent tensions, notably over Taiwan, from sparking conflict. The leaders agreed to resume military communications and other modest outcomes. But fundamental differences remain. While both called for managing competition responsibly, concrete progress was limited.
The ability to directly engage despite discord shows wisdom, but true progress requires policy shifts. With misperceptions abounding, military hotlines can help avoid miscalculation. However, deterring confrontation requires resolving core disputes based on a common interpretation of international law. Neither power seeks outright conflict, but preventing crisis requires urgent diplomacy, not just summitry. As the powers steer between rivalry and catastrophe, leaders must summon political courage to align actions with rhetoric.
Read more about this story here.
UN Security Council Passes Modest Humanitarian Pause Resolution
After weeks of discord, the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for humanitarian pauses in Gaza, aid access, and hostage releases. A Russian ceasefire amendment failed, but the US, UK and Russia all abstained in the latest vote to facilitate humanitarian pauses in Israel's campaign.
The humanitarian pause resolution, though modest, shows some Security Council unity is possible despite clashing interests. Even this incremental step required compromises, underscoring the barriers to more decisive action like ceasefires. As civilian suffering mounts, UNSC powers face challenges in summoning sufficient political will to implement relief. Translating humanitarian concern into immediate protection remains obstructed by geopolitical divides. Overcoming gridlock on more lasting solutions still does not appear likely.
Read more about this story here.
Venezuela and Paraguay Restore Diplomatic Ties
Venezuela and Paraguay have officially announced the restoration of diplomatic and consular relations, a significant development reflecting changing political dynamics in the region. Presidents Nicolás Maduro and Santiago Peña engaged in discussions, leading to a mutual commitment to accredit ambassadors in the coming days. This move signals a notable shift, demonstrating a willingness to prioritize mutual interests over past differences.
The restoration of diplomatic relations between Venezuela and Paraguay underscores the fluid nature of international diplomacy, particularly in Latin America. Beyond its symbolic significance, the re-establishment of diplomatic ties may have broader consequences, influencing regional dynamics and potentially encouraging other nations to pursue reconciliation. The shared commitment to Latin American integration emphasizes a common vision for cooperation, laying the groundwork for renewed diplomatic engagement and fostering potential positive outcomes for both countries.
Read more about this story here.
France Issues Arrest Warrant for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
France has issued an international arrest warrant for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, accusing him of complicity in crimes against humanity and war crimes related to the 2013 chemical attacks, as reported by plaintiffs in the case. This significant move, marking the first time a sitting head of state becomes the subject of an arrest warrant in another country for war crimes and crimes against humanity, is likely to have profound implications for Syria's diplomatic opportunities.
The warrants extend beyond Assad to include his brother Maher, the de facto chief of the Fourth Division, and two generals. The issuance of arrest warrants not only symbolizes efforts to address alleged war crimes but also holds broader implications for diplomatic relations involving Syria. While the practical implementation of these warrants remains challenging, the move contributes to diplomatically isolating the Syrian government. The decision will potentially close avenues for engagement with countries that enjoy positive relations with France and international organizations.
Read more about this story here.
US Aid to Israel and Ukraine Delayed
The fate of aid for Ukraine and Israel remains uncertain, as the United States House of Representatives passed a short-term measure to fund the government into next year. The Biden administration, advocating for a $106 billion emergency supplemental, faced resistance as the House maintained current funding levels until January 19 and February 2.
The US government's struggle over aid for Ukraine, influenced by changing priorities and the absence of a clear strategy, adds uncertainty to the future of the war in Ukraine. As the Senate deliberates on Biden's supplemental, the balancing act between government funding, Israel's needs, and Ukraine's challenges highlights the intricate nature of navigating foreign policy objectives within a shifting political landscape. The outcome will not only impact regional dynamics but also serve as a bellwether for the status of US leadership.