In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, November 2nd
The Philippines Moves Away from China's Belt and Road Initiative, Russia Revokes Ratification of Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, and other stories.
China's Rapid Offshore Wind Expansion and Europe's Dilemma
China is rapidly expanding its offshore wind capacity, overtaking the EU in installed megawatts. It is developing larger turbines and installation vessels, aiming to lead globally. This creates a dilemma for Europe as it pursues its own offshore wind goals. Cooperation with China could accelerate Europe's green transition. But dependence on Chinese firms risks undermining its renewable industry. For now Europe is taking a mixed approach, allowing some Chinese investment while eyeing protections.
The offshore wind sector is becoming an arena of climate cooperation and competition. China seizing first-mover advantage puts pressure on other states. While its rise could aid emissions cuts, it may also create lopsided interdependence. The tricky balance for Europe encapsulates broader tensions around managing China's role. Pursuing collective gains through cooperation must be weighed against risks to indigenous industries and access to US markets. As renewables reshape energy geopolitics, complex tradeoffs emerge around alignment and autonomy.
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Gaza Violence Strains Emerging Diplomatic Relations in the Middle East
The recent flare up in violence between Israel and Hamas has temporarily derailed the trend of growing rapprochement between Israel and some Arab states. The recent clashes have reinforced how security challenges, identity politics, and ideological rivalries can override shared interests in the Middle East.
The crisis shows how tenuous diplomatic progress can be in a turbulent region like the Middle East. Despite recent diplomatic breakthroughs like the Abraham Accords, deeply rooted tensions persist. Furthermore, non-state actors like Hamas retain the ability to disrupt inter-state relations. Looking ahead, the moderate Arab states will likely try to get the Israel-Hamas fighting to cease as soon as possible and then minimally re-engage with Israel, while avoiding inflaming their own publics. However, significant progress on Israel-Arab normalization or the Israeli-Palestinian peace process seems unlikely in the near term.
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The Philippines Moves Away from China's Belt and Road Initiative
The Philippines is distancing itself from China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), terminating several major infrastructure projects backed by Chinese financing. Under former President Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines had warmed ties with China and agreed to participate in BRI. However, under the new President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Manila has shifted course due to ongoing maritime disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea.
Recently, the Philippines canceled nearly $5 billion worth of Chinese railway and other infrastructure projects, complaining about delays and unfavorable loan terms compared to partners like Japan. The Philippine withdrawal deals a major reputational blow to China's BRI program. It highlights growing concerns about unsustainable debt burdens and lack of project follow-through. As Manila turns to alternative partners like the United States, Japan, and Europe, Beijing loses a strategic foothold near key waterways. Meanwhile, unresolved South China Sea tensions continue to plague China-Philippine relations. While trade remains substantial, Beijing's hopes of pulling Manila firmly into its economic orbit via BRI have been dashed.
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Turkey and Iran Jointly Call for De-escalation in Gaza
The foreign ministers of Turkey and Iran have issued a joint call for de-escalation amid the ongoing fighting in Gaza. They warned of the conflict expanding across the region, with Iran implying its proxy forces may intervene if violence continues. However, differences emerged over Iran's push to cut oil exports to Israel, a position that Turkey did not echo. The dueling regional powers aim to raise their standing by positioning themselves as potential mediators. But their divergent ties to rival actors and endgoals constrain lasting cooperation.
The Turkey-Iran entente underscores concerns the Israel-Hamas war could widen into a regional conflagration. Iran's threats allude to attacks by its proxies against Israel and US forces. Turkey's readiness to guarantee a ceasefire deal contrasts with Iran's call to sever ties with Israel. While both joust for influence using the Palestinian cause, Turkey maintains relations with Israel and has a common ally in Azerbaijan. The two states' coordination has limits, as seen in past proxy battles. While seeking to stop the conflict, neither can dictate terms to core partners.
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Jordan Recalls Ambassador from Israel
Jordan has announced it will immediately recall its ambassador from Israel in protest of Israel's military campaign in Gaza. The move comes amid growing public pressure in Jordan to sever ties with Israel over the Gaza violence. Jordan's 1994 peace treaty with Israel has long been unpopular domestically, but Israel's actions have inflamed tensions further, sparking protests in Jordan against both the treaty and Israel.
The ambassador recall is a warning shot to Israel from a key regional partner. Jordan relies on stability in the Palestinian territories for its own security. Prolonged Gaza violence risks spillover that could threaten Jordan's borders. Jordan also houses millions of Palestinian refugees, making it attentive to their plight. Israel values ties with Jordan, one of just two Arab states it has peace with. But Israeli actions continue to jeopardize the relationship. Unless the Gaza conflict ends quickly, public anger may force Jordan to downgrade ties further. This could jeopardize Israeli-Jordanian cooperation on security, water, and energy.
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Russia Revokes Ratification of Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
Russia has revoked its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which prohibits all nuclear test explosions worldwide. President Putin signed legislation abandoning Russia's commitments under the landmark 1996 pact. The move brings it into parity with the United States, which signed but never ratified the treaty. Russia says it will continue to voluntarily observe the test moratorium for now.
Russia's treaty exit deals a symbolic blow to the arms control and nonproliferation efforts of the Cold War. Practically, it may have little immediate impact if Russia upholds its testing pause. But down the line, the move could presage more substantive erosion of the nuclear testing taboo. It gives Russia latitude to resume testing if it desires. The withdrawal reflects Russia's rejection of any constraints on its military posture amid tensions with the US. However, it further isolates Russia and damages its credibility as a responsible nuclear power committed to reducing nuclear dangers.