In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, November 10th
Bangladesh Agrees $4.5 Billion Bailout Deal With IMF, South Korea Recovers a North Korean Missile at Sea, and other stories.
Bangladesh Agrees $4.5 Billion Bailout Deal with the IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Bangladesh have reached an agreement over a $4.5 billion loan. Bangladesh pre-emptively reached out for an IMF loan earlier this year in order to alleviate its low foreign exchange reserves and widening current account deficit.
Bangladesh has already imposed several restrictions on imports and electricity use across the country to tackle the ongoing crisis. Under the terms of the agreement, Dhaka will now be required to undertake certain economic reforms to mobilize revenue and cut excess expenditures and strengthen the country’s financial sector. Short-term effects like upward pressure on inflation and slow economic growth due to further currency depreciation are likely.
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Migrant Rescue Vessels in the Mediterranean Spark Italy-France Row
The arrival of hundreds of refugees on the Italian island of Lampedusa has sparked a political crisis between Rome and Paris. France argues that the Ocean Viking migrant rescue ship should dock in Italian waters, condemning Rome’s rejection of basing rights which caused the ship to head toward France.
The French-Italian tensions are the latest episode in a European standoff over where to disembark migrants picked up after trying to reach Europe from North Africa, with Rome increasingly frustrated at taking in the bulk of those rescued. Despite the fact that decisions on immigration remain at the discretion of national governments within the European Union, the European Commission has stepped in to call for all refugees aboard the Ocean Viking to be allowed to “immediately disembark” in Italy.
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Nepal's Balancing Act Between China and India
With elections in Nepal fast approaching, the country’s competing political blocs will struggle to manoeuvre between India and China regardless of who takes power in Kathmandu. China has been the largest source of foreign direct investment in Nepal for the last six years while relations between India and Nepal have significantly deteriorated in that time.
Nepal will hold elections for all 275 members of its house of representatives and for 220 provincial assembly seats. The two main contenders in this election are the governing alliance led by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's centre-left Nepali Congress party and the bloc led by former Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli's left-wing Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist. The victors will inherit a difficult geopolitical environment between rivals China and India.
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Poland’s Recent Arms Acquisitions
Poland has embarked on a military acquisition spree that is unprecedented in modern European history. But rather than acquiring weaponry from Germany, its traditional arms supplier, Poland has found new arms suppliers in South Korea and the United States.
Poland’s drastic militarization has in recent years included the purchase and planned purchase of 1,000 K2 main battle tanks, 672 K9 self-propelled guns and 288 K239 multiple rocket launcher systems from South Korea and 366 M1 Abrams main battle tanks and 92 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters from the United States. At the same time, Poland’s domestic defence producers are set to provide the Polish Armed Forces with almost 1,500 infantry fighting vehicles, hundreds of artillery pieces, drones and tank destroyers.
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South Korea Recovers a North Korean Missile at Sea
South Korea’s defence ministry has revealed efforts to recover some of the missiles that North Korea fired into the Sea of Japan earlier this month. Their recovery efforts are said to have been successful, though the value of their findings is disappointing.
The nature of the parts salvaged will be disappointing to Seoul and its allies, as the missile found appears to be from an outdated S-200 system. It was previously expected that recovering the remains of one of the missiles fired by North Korean would provide key intelligence on modern solid-fuelled designs or modernized Scud-derived missiles.