In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, November 24th
Turkey’s Strikes Near US troops in Syria, Kosovo and Serbia Reach Deal on Licence Plate Dispute, and other stories.
Turkey’s Strikes Near US troops in Syria
Turkish air strikes in northern Syria have reportedly threatened the safety of US military personnel and their Kurdish allies. Public comments made by the Pentagon represent a condemnation by the United States of its NATO-ally Turkey's air operations in northern Syria.
The US supported Syrian Democratic Forces have responded to Turkish airstrikes by suspending operations against IS in order to focus on preparations for a Turkish ground invasion. Following recent strikes, US officials in Ankara and Washington emphasized to their Turkish counterparts that close coordination between the two is necessary to prevent harm to US forces.
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The Winners and Losers of the Energy War in Europe
Given a thaw in relations between the European Union and Russia seems impossible at this time, the future trajectory of the ongoing energy crisis has drawn the attention of analysts: some declaring Russia is winning the energy war; others arguing that Russia faces “economic oblivion.”
In the short to medium term, Russia looks likely to harness its economic resilience despite lower-volume energy sales and sanctions, thereby coming out the victor. EU member states will pay a steep price for its transition away from Russian fossil fuels. But in the long term, some analysts foresee an overall Russian decline as an energy superpower as Europe benefits from its efforts to wean itself off Russian energy, generating renewable and low-carbon energy locally and cutting energy consumption overall.
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Iraq to Reinforce Borders with Turkey and Iran
Iraq has said it planned to deploy federal guards along its borders with Iran and Turkey. The move comes after repeated strikes have been conducted by Iranian and Turkish troops against opposition groups in Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region.
The borders of the Kurdistan region are currently protected by peshmerga forces under the Iraqi Ministry of Defence. In a written statement, the Iraqi authorities said that the plan would be implemented in close coordination with the government of the Kurdistan region and the Ministry of Peshmerga.
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Pressure Grows on European Enterprises to Move Operations to the US
The trade war between the European Union and the United States is calling into question investment programs worth hundreds of billions. The incentives the US provides for European businesses threaten Europe’s production of electric cars, batteries, as well as wind and hydrogen energy sectors.
US measures such as the Inflation Reduction Act promise hundreds of billions of US dollars in subsidies for products manufactured in the United States. To take advantage of this boost in subsidies, companies from Europe, Japan and South Korea are being incentivized to relocate to the United States. In effect, the EU appears to be in “systemic competition” with China and the United States.
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Kosovo and Serbia Reach Deal on Licence Plate Dispute
The EU's foreign policy chief has announced an agreement has ben reached to end a nearly two-year dispute between Kosovo and Serbia over license plates. The dispute erupted after Pristina attempted to require its Serb minority to change car plates dating from before 1999.
Josep Borrell said the deal entailed Serbia ceasing to issue licence plates with markings indicating Kosovan cities, while Kosovo will stop any further actions related to the “re-registration of vehicles.” Borrell added that the agreement will be followed by a discussion by both parties to discuss an EU proposal supported by France and Germany to set up a path for the two countries to normalize relations.