In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, November 3rd
Israel Cautiously Increases Aid to Ukraine, The Ethiopian Government and Tigrayan Forces Agree to End Fighting, and other stories.
Israel Cautiously Increases Aid to Ukraine
Israel is gradually ramping up support for Ukraine. Going forward, Israel is likely to increase its increase civilian and intelligence aid to Ukraine proportionate to the support its rival Iran provides for Russia. This may further deteriorate relations between Russia and Israel.
Israel has been hesitant to fully back Kiev thus far, in large part due to the need for Russian acquiescence to conduct operations in Syria. Now, after Iranian drones and missiles have seen use by Russian forces in Ukraine, Israel has provided Kiev with intelligence information about Russian troop locations and Iranian drone deliveries. As Iran deepens its cooperation with Russia, Israel will likely increase strategic support to Ukraine in addition to already developing an early warning system.
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The Ethiopian Government and Tigrayan Forces Agree to End Fighting
The African Union (AU) has announced that Ethiopia’s government and Tigrayan forces have formally agreed to end fighting after holding preliminary talks in South Africa.
Communications and transport infrastructure have been damaged or destroyed across much of the Tigray region since the conflict began. Now, with a comprehensive peace deal being negotiated, Ethiopian interests will turn to integrating the region into Ethiopian sovereignty. According to the AU statement, Ethiopia’s government and Tigrayan authorities have agreed on an “orderly, smooth and coordinated” disarmament and a “restoration of law and order”, “restoration of services” and “unhindered access to humanitarian supplies”.
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Russia Returns to Ukraine Grain Deal
Russia has resumed its participation in the export deal that allows Ukraine to ship grain from its Black Sea ports. Moscow changed its position after apparently receiving a number of written guarantees from Kiev not to use the Black Sea grain corridor for military operations.
The resumption in participation came after a round of intense diplomatic talks between Moscow and Ankara. At this time, Russia appears either unable or unwilling to reimpose a naval blockade on Ukraine, continued deliveries to Turkey taking place even if Moscow chooses to leave the deal. Instead, Russia looks to be attempting to maintain close ties with Ankara and avoid accusations from partners in Asia, Africa and the Middle East for a halt in grain deliveries.
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Germany Appeals for Unity in the Western Balkans
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has told leaders of six Balkan countries aspiring to join the European Union to overcome their historical conflicts. Scholz and the EU’s top officials joined leaders from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia for the Western Balkans Summit in Berlin.
At the summit, the participating parties are expected to sign a number of agreements on energy, the easing of regional travel arrangements and the mutual recognition of academic qualifications. But, with tension between Serbia and Kosovo consistently hostile, Scholz emphasized that the nations of the region need to overcome their bilateral problems with “a sense of urgency” to access the European Union.
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Egypt and the UAE Jointly Training Somali Forces
A secret initiative is being carried out by the UAE and Egypt in Mogadishu to recruit and train an estimated 3,000 Somali men. Somalia maintains a diverse range of forces trained by various countries, in particular Turkey, yet has for years struggled to fight against militants.
In an exercise that reportedly began months ago, the recruits are receiving military training from Egyptian officers. The initiative is likely to be perceived with suspicion in neighbouring Ethiopia, which is locked in an ongoing spat with Cairo over the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project.