In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, November 11th
Somalia Remains Fragile After Three Decades of Conflict and The Taliban’s Struggle for International Recognition
Somalia Remains Fragile After Three Decades of Conflict
Somalia has experienced only brief periods of peace since Britain ceased administering much of the country in 1960. While the years following independence saw some semblance of peace, prosperity, and unity, violence has nonetheless come to dominate much of the country’s postcolonial history. The downfall of President Siad Barre in January 1991 resulted in a violent power struggle in many parts of Somalia, and eventually led to the US-led military intervention in 1992 as part of a wider international peacekeeping effort which ended in the spring of 1995. But violent rivalries between tribes and clans have continued to the present day, where US special operations forces remain to train, advise and assist both local troops and African Union (AU) peacekeepers.
The UN Security Council mandated AU Mission in Somalia is intended to support the implementation of the Somalia Transition Plan, which is aimed at providing security for large parts of Somalia in the absence of state authority. The Security Council has stressed that the AU mission must take “coordinated and cohesive” efforts to achieve a transition of security responsibilities to the Somali security forces before the end of 2023. But in recent years, as US involvement has weakened, the UN and AU have increasingly grown frustrated with the costs of maintaining peacekeeping operations there. Creating a cohesive Somali security force has been, and remains, a task held back by corruption and lack of will, as time and again local warlords elevated to positions of power fall back on violence in pursuit of narrower goals.
Over time, consistent failure to work around these obstacles has led many to acknowledge that clan loyalties remain a dominant force in Somali culture. Today, Somalia’s political system is structured to reflect this reality, with the federal government recognising four major clans on top of a coalition of smaller clans. While this political structure has gone some way toward establishing a functional government, it has done little to upend the established primacy of warlords across Somalia. And after decades-long efforts to reverse this reality, it seems little has been achieved to mitigate the power of tribal warlords. While UN officials see sufficient progress to justify a reduction of the military mission, AU officials remain sceptical that such a move would accomplish anything but more violence.
Read more about this story here.
The Taliban’s Struggle for International Recognition
Almost three months after the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, its government has yet to achieve formal recognition by a single country. The lack of international recognition cannot be attributed to a lack of effort, as its leadership has been busy meeting with officials in the region as well as those from the UN. But much like the UN’s decision to turn down a Taliban request to have its envoy address the UN General Assembly, so too have countries shown hesitation in recognision the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. If this state of affairs continues, the Taliban risks becoming a pariah on the international stage.
According to international law, recognition is one of the key means by which to elevate a government as lawful, legitimate, and in control of its territory. Afghanistan’s neighbors and other regional players have strong incentives to formally engage with the Taliban as recognition would facilitate trade and investments, enhance security, and minimise risks of miscalculation. However, countries near Afghanistan have thus far eschewed recognition, instead choosing to engage with the Taliban through back channels. While officials from Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asian states have met with high-ranking members of the Taliban, their moves have stopped short of recognition. Nevertheless, if recognition does come from the international community, it is far more likely to be undertaken by countries in Afghanistan’s neighborhood than by the United States or its allies.
The United States and its allies are likely to maintain steep demands in any negotiations involving recognition. The Taliban government is unlikely to compromise on its fundamental Islamic ideology, nor are Taliban officials eager to concede any ground to the powers which just recently were occupying the country. As such, the probability of officials in Kabul accepting US demands in the near-term are next to none. For this reason, the Taliban’s diplomatic efforts are better aimed at first attaining recognition from regional players, which are more likely to opt for recognition due to geographic factors. For now though, most are adapting a wait-and-watch approach, looking for signs of sustained improvements in security and the Taliban’s political authority.
Read more about this story here.