In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, November 28th
Militant Offensive West of Aleppo Captures Territory, Poland Joins France Opposing Mercosur Agreement, and other stories.
Militant Offensive West of Aleppo Captures Territory
Armed groups in northwestern Syria have launched a major offensive against government positions west of Aleppo, capturing several villages and a military base. The attacks were led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), with limited participation from Turkish-backed factions. While Turkey reportedly attempted to prevent the offensive, the militants appear to be exploiting the reduced presence of pro-government forces, many of whom are focused on tensions with Israel along Syria's southern border.
The renewed fighting has worsened conditions in northwestern Syria, home to over 5 million people, including 2 million in camps. Government forces have responded with artillery and air strikes on areas held by the militant groups. The current offensive threatens to further destabilize the uneasy status quo that has persisted in the region since Russia and Turkey negotiated a ceasefire in 2019. The battle appears focused on strategic areas west of Aleppo that provide access routes between different opposition-held territories.
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Poland Joins France Opposing Mercosur Agreement
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced this week he would not support the proposed EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, joining French President Emmanuel Macron in opposition to the deal. The opposition centres on agricultural concerns, with both French and Polish farmers protesting against what they see as unfair competition from foreign producers.
The growing resistance poses a serious threat to the agreement's ratification, as blocking the deal requires four member states representing 35% of the EU's population. While Austria opposes the pact and the Netherlands remains sceptical, opponents need to secure support from another major state like Italy to successfully block it. French Prime Minister Michel Barnier will visit Rome on December 5 to lobby for Italian opposition. For the EU, the deal's strategic importance extends beyond economics — it represents an effort to diversify trade relationships. Current EU investments in Mercosur countries total €330 billion, highlighting the significant economic interests at stake in this political battle.
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China Creates Security Firm to Protect Assets
China and Myanmar's military junta announced plans this week to establish a joint security company to protect Chinese investments, particularly along the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). This security arrangement marks a significant shift in Beijing's approach to protecting its interests in Myanmar, signalling diminishing confidence in the junta's capabilities as it loses ground to rebels.
The joint venture appears designed to circumvent Myanmar's constitutional ban on foreign troops while potentially facilitating arms shipments to the regime. Unlike traditional Chinese private security companies operating abroad, this joint venture could take on a more militarized role. Myanmar's civilian National Unity Government has countered by asserting that cooperation with rebel forces is the only viable way to protect Chinese investments, but Beijing appears committed to backing the junta despite its weakening position.
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Moscow Moves to Normalize Taliban Ties
Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu visited Kabul this week with two concrete offers: removing the Taliban from Russia's terrorist list and establishing direct security cooperation against ISIS-K. The timing coincides with Kabul's recent interest in bartering minerals for Russian oil and Moscow's push to activate north-south trade corridors through Afghanistan.
Moscow has specific interests: containing ISIS-K threats to Russia, gaining leverage over regional mineral/energy trade, and establishing transport links to South Asia that bypass Western sanctions. The Taliban gets international legitimacy and potential economic deals. However, Russia faces the same challenge that has stalled previous Afghan trade initiatives — regional instability between Afghanistan and Pakistan makes ambitious corridor plans difficult to execute.
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Bolivia Enables Argentina-Brazil Gas Transit
Bolivia's state oil company YPFB has agreed to let Argentina pump natural gas to Brazil through Bolivia's existing pipeline network, marking the first such trilateral energy arrangement in South America. The deal will use Bolivia's 1,000-kilometre pipeline system to transport gas from Argentina's Vaca Muerta formation to Brazilian markets, with pumping set to begin in 2025. The volume is projected to reach 30 million cubic meters daily by 2030. The agreement involves Total Energies and Grupo Matrix Energía as key commercial partners, with multiple route options under consideration.
This arrangement could significantly impact regional trade dynamics, particularly for Argentina's economy. The timing is opportune for Brazil, which faces its worst drought in 74 years and needs to diversify beyond its 70% reliance on hydroelectric power. For Bolivia, which has seen its role as South America's primary gas supplier diminish, the deal transforms it into a transit country earning fees from its infrastructure rather than from direct gas sales. The agreement also demonstrates pragmatic energy cooperation between Brazil's leftist President Lula and Argentina's libertarian President Milei, despite their stark ideological differences.
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Russia and Belarus Sign New Military Integration Pacts
Russia and Belarus have formalized their military integration through two new security agreements, with Russia extending its nuclear deterrence umbrella to explicitly cover Belarus. At their November 22 meeting in Brest, foreign ministry officials finalized arrangements that will treat any attack on Belarus as an attack on Russia itself.
This completes a rapid sequence of military integration moves started in 2022: first air defence integration, then nuclear weapons deployment, then doctrine extension, and now comprehensive security frameworks. Belarus presents these agreements as a foundation for broader European security talks post-Ukraine conflict. But with Belarus already hosting Russian tactical nuclear weapons and integrated air defence, these new pacts mainly formalize facts on the ground rather than change strategic realities.