In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, November 30th
OPEC+ Rolls Over Oil Output Cuts, US Renews Pressure on Iran's Military Financing, and other stories.
Israel and Hamas Agree to Another Brief Truce Extension
Israel and Hamas have again extended their temporary ceasefire in Gaza by one day after late night negotiations, narrowly averting a breakdown moments before the previous pause expired. The new extension retains the same terms, facilitating incremental hostage releases by both sides.
The on-again off-again truce comes as violence persists across Israel and Palestine, with West Bank tensions roiling and US forces intercepting Iranian drones. But with talks limping forward and sides dangling modest prisoner swaps to sustain calm, the fragile détente clings to life even as leaders reaffirm military aims. Whether the episodic pauses blossom into more lasting peace still hangs in the balance amid regional uncertainty.
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Russia's Drone Capabilities Face Deepening Decline
A new report finds that after a year of the Ukraine war, Russia has lost most of its tactical reconnaissance drones without being able to deploy more advanced combat models as anticipated. With crashing production and foreign component supplies severed, the analysis sees Russia's reconnaissance and targeting abilities stagnating amid losses and delays of sophisticated projects.
The study also details fundamental integration challenges between Russian drones and military branches that still hamper battlefield utilization. As the private sector and civilian volunteers drive Ukrainian drone success, Russia's overregulated defence industry falls further behind in agility and innovation. With Russia now highly reliant on simple Iranian loitering munitions, the drone gap with Western-assisted Ukraine keeps expanding to Russia's detriment.
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OPEC+ Nations Agree to Further Oil Production Cuts
OPEC+ countries have reached an agreement in principle to reduce oil production by another 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in early 2024. This voluntary cut would extend and expand on existing output restraints led by Saudi Arabia, with Russia also renewing its curb. The decision came as the alliance voted to welcome Brazil as a new member starting in January.
Rather than an official group target, the additional trims were announced piecemeal by national delegations. But the cumulative cuts could lower OPEC+ output by over 2 million bpd next quarter when accounting for Saudi and Russian extensions. Still, quotas faced immediate defiance from African member Angola, whose president is meeting with US President Biden. With oil prices dropping on ambiguous signals, the disjointed public pledges may struggle to reassure battered markets longing for decisive action.
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Policy Discrepancies Threaten UK Energy Security
A new analysis argues the UK government's approach to energy security risks is disjointed and lacking cohesion between markets, infrastructure, and climate policies. While identifying needs to boost efficiency, electrification, demand management and supply chain security, the study finds policies often work at cross purposes.
A core tension lies in treating energy shocks as purely economic versus systemic problems — with current strategies leaning heavily toward fiscal relief over accelerated transitions. But with oil and gas dependence leaving the UK exposed even as new technologies emerge, the analysis says disjointed measures must give way to coordinated roadmaps balancing security, affordability and emissions cuts. The report advocates phasing out hydrocarbons through systemic changes, as that may prove more sustainable than just subsidizing consumers.
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US Renews Pressure on Iran's Military Financing
The US Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on over 20 Iranian and foreign entities for alleged involvement in illicit funding streams benefiting Iran's military branches. Accusing Tehran of generating "billions" to arm regional proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah, the designations aim to disrupt a sprawling global network of military front companies and commodities trade enabling Iranian regional activities.
The sanctions come amid simmering US-Iran tensions as Washington strikes targets threatening US and Israeli assets while confronting Iran-backed attacks on its forces in Syria. But with Iran defiantly boosting oil exports, the latest move may primarily signal revived US pressure rather than degrading Iranian capacities. Still, targeting wider financing infrastructure spotlights persistent US aims to squeeze the Iranian military's overseas reach — especially as regional conflicts still flare.
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Ukraine's Leadership Maintains Maximalist Goals
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has adamantly rejected initiating any ceasefire negotiations with Russia until Moscow fully removes forces from his country. Saying territorial concessions are unacceptable and past Minsk pacts failed, Zelenskyy ruled out talks, even while acknowledging that Ukraine's forces are struggling.
With the conflict still in the balance, Zelenskyy instead pointed to an ongoing Ukraine-led multinational peace summit process that excludes Russia as the alternative, while seeking more Chinese involvement in an effort to further isolate Russia. But there are growing calls for diplomacy as battlefield gains slow. So while demanding total liberation first, Zelenskyy may face mounting pressure — especially from partners focused elsewhere — to explore interim de-escalation arrangements if a stalemate is reached.