In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, October 21st
Iran Nuclear Deal Stalls Due to Lack of Willpower and Turkey Arrests More Than a Dozen Israeli Spies
Iran Nuclear Deal Stalls Due to Lack of Willpower
Iran remains hesitant to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) talks in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement. The new government in Tehran, led by Ebrahim Raisi, increasingly appears to have lost interest in negotiated settlement that would see all parties rejoin the accord. Mistrust, confidence, and alternative policy options available to Iran signal that Tehran believes it can weather US sanctions. While Washington, which left the JCPOA agreement during the Trump presidency, continues to demand of the Iranians what they are unwilling to concede. The result is a lack of progress in JCPOA talks, and little sign of a successful renegotiation of its terms.
The Iranian side has insisted on legally binding commitments from the United States, while US negotiators have refused to commit the United States to the deal by failing to guarantee that a future administration would not abandon the JCPOA. When Iran supposedly lowered their demands and requested a commitment from Biden to stay compliant to the deal for the rest of his presidential term, the White House refused to make a commitment citing legal obstacles. Biden’s decision effectively means that the United States does not intend to rejoin the JCPOA under present terms, and instead will seek to use the country’s sanctions regime as a form of leverage in future negotiations.
The ease with which the United States can leave the JCPOA agreement is a “serious and legitimate concern” to many diplomats involved in the negotiations. For Tehran, the unreliability of a US commitment to the JCPOA puts Iran in a very vulnerable position. By lowering its demands in a potential JCPOA deal even further in an effort to alleviate the crippling sanctions which severely limit the country’s freedom of action abroad, Tehran will give up its nuclear leverage in exchange for little more than promises from Washington. Moreover, Biden’s unwillingness to commit may be an indication that Washington is unwilling to budge on the matter, and will seek out alternative avenues for maintaining pressure on Iran.
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Turkey Arrests Over a Dozen Israeli Spies
Relations between Turkey and Israel have been problematic of late. There has been no ambassador in either country since May 2018, following Turkey’s sharp reaction to Israeli attacks on Gaza and Washington’s decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Ties were strained further when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan denounced Israel’s West Bank annexation plan and vowed to prevent its implementation. Now, ties between the two appear to be deteriorating further, as Turkey has announced the arrest of 15 people accused of spying for Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency.
A team at the Turkish National Intelligence Organization has exposed a network of operatives working for Mossad which have reportedly been covertly carrying out activities against opponents of Israel. The spy network is said to have been tracked by Turkish intelligence units for a year, after which counterterrorism forces captured the 15 spies in a secret operation carried out earlier this month. According to reports, the spies were providing Mossad with information on foreign students enrolled in Turkish universities, with a particular focus on Palestinians living in Turkey. The investigation also revealed that one of the cells was tasked with contacting Mossad field officers and meeting them abroad, during which information and documents deemed of interest to Israel are said to have been relayed.
It was not that long ago that Turkey was considered Israel’s closest ally in the Muslim world. Relations began to sour after Israel conducted a three-week offensive against Hamas in 2008, and deteriorated further in May 2010, when actions undertaken by Israeli commandos led to the deaths of eight Turkish nationals. Since then, things have gone from bad to worse, with Turkey sharply downgrading its diplomatic and military ties with Israel in 2011, and expelling the Israeli ambassador after Israel refused to apologise for the deaths. Relations have remained tense, as Turkish energy ambitions in the Eastern Mediterranean have conflicted with Israeli energy interests. The recent capture of 15 Israeli spies will only worsen relations, and compound disagreements between two of the most powerful nation-states in the region.
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