In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, October 28th
Political Crisis Brewing in the Balkans and Row Over Fishing Licenses Between France & the UK Escalates
Political Crisis Brewing in the Balkans
Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing a political crisis that could quickly morph into an armed conflict. The country is now on the verge of its worse crisis since the signing of the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement, which effectively split Bosnia along ethnic lines into two regions: the Serb-run Republika Srpska and the Federation in which power is shared by Croats and Bosniaks. But earlier this month Milorad Dodik, the Serb member of Bosnia’s split presidency, announced the Republika Srpska will leave key institutions in violation of the 1995 peace accords.
Dodik represents secessionist Serb forces within the delicate power-sharing government in Bosnia, and has made clear that Republika Srpska wants also wants to withdraw its armed forces from state institutions. Dodik confirmed that the governing SNSD party in Republika Srpska has adopted a decision to initiate the procedures necessary for the formation of a Bosnian Serb army. But the head of joint headquarters of the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina countered by insisting that its armed forces are the only legal and legitimate military force in the country. US & EU officials have voiced support for the unified Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The re-establishment of the Bosnian Serb Army, if carried out, would have drastic repercussions on the security landscape in Bosnia, the Balkans, and Europe as a whole. The next weeks are critical, partly because outside powers — such as the United States, Russia, and China — all have both professed and hidden designs on this region, and all are likely to support limited military operations in pursuit of their respective interests if tensions on the ground escalate. The rivalry between Serbia and Croatia also contributes toward a more contested battleground, where longstanding disagreements enable an environment in which grey zone operations conducted by outside powers bear a relatively smaller political cost.
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Row Over Fishing Licenses Between France & the UK Escalates
A row over a post-Brexit settlement concerning fishing licenses between France and the United Kingdom appears to be escalating. France has previously been angered by a decision by the UK and Jersey to deny fishing licences to dozens of French boats, which Paris argues is in breach of a prior deal. France says the UK has refused to grant some of its fishermen the licenses needed to operate in the UK’s and Jersey’s waters, and calls the move totally unwarranted. But the UK says it is issuing licences to those vessels which meet its criteria, and that the French boats concerned did not provide enough supporting evidence to demonstrate a history of fishing in the UK's or Jersey's waters.
The French seizure of a UK-registered fishing trawler is just the latest episode in an increasingly hostile relationship between the two. The UK has condemned the seizer of the fishing vessel, called out comments made by French officials as “unjustified,” and has formally summoned the country's ambassador. UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called for immediate talks between the two in order to explain “disappointing and disproportionate threats” made by French officials.
France warned it could ban the UK’s fishing boats from disembarking at French ports from as soon as next week if the issues are not resolved. Paris also threatened it would reinforce its customs and hygiene controls, initiate routine security checks on British vessels, and reinforce controls on lorries going to and from the UK. European Affairs Minister Clement Beaune is said committed to “speak the language of strength” to the UK government. French Maritime Minister Annick Girardin used a rather more concerning analogy to describe the stand-off, stating that “it's not war, but it is a fight.” Many don't want the dispute to escalate, but the governments in both France and the UK are under pressure from vocal fishing lobbies.
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