In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, October 5th
Israel Agrees Satellite Sale with Azerbaijan, Russia Signs Deal for Permanent Naval Base in Abkhazia, and other stories.
The United States Navy Adopts Expanded Mission Set
The United States Navy was recently given an expanded mission, including “peacetime promotion of national security and prosperity” alongside war fighting responsibilities. This formalizes a major shift as great power competition intensifies.
The revised mission signals a strategic reorientation. To fulfil it, the US Navy will re-examine operations, doctrine, and force structure. Lessons from the past show maritime power's value beyond combat. As tensions rise, engagement, deterrence and conflict prevention grow more vital. However, the US Navy risks overstretch if capacities are not expanded. This evolution presents opportunities to align naval power with wider US strategy. But change will challenge orthodox thinking. Clear direction and sufficient resources will be essential to match new ambitions with real capabilities.
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Western Dilemma in Dealing with Belarus' Complex Position
Belarus occupies an ambiguous position between Russia and the West. Western policymakers are divided over how to approach Belarus given its relationship with Russia. Some advocate treating Belarus and Russia as a unitary actor, imposing undifferentiated sanctions and isolation. Others argue for more engagement with Belarus, claiming it retains autonomy that punitive policies could erode.
Evidence exists on both sides, like military alignment with Russia but resistance to direct Ukraine involvement. The debate highlights challenges in calibrating Western policy amid ambiguities. Hardliners view sanctions as accountability and deterrence against alignment with Russia. Pragmatists argue engagement on shared interests like migration avoids further pushes toward Moscow. Striking an effective balance has proven elusive. As tensions persist, NATO powers will continue grappling with competing imperatives in Belarus policy.
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Israel Agrees Satellite Sale with Azerbaijan
Israel Aerospace Industries has agreed to sell two advanced reconnaissance satellites to Azerbaijan's space agency. The deal expands ongoing defence ties between Israel and Azerbaijan, an important oil supplier. It comes after Azerbaijan defeated Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, displacing over 100,000 ethnic Armenians. Israel likely views relations with Azerbaijan as strategically valuable given its proximity to Iran.
The satellite sale has human rights implications amid Azerbaijan's conduct in Nagorno-Karabakh. Broader defence cooperation also risks fuelling regional tensions. For Israel, Azerbaijan represents a foothold near Iran. But close ties despite Azerbaijan's record on Armenians may damage Israel's image. The episodic nature of interest means alignments shift quickly when strategic priorities change. While beneficial in the short-term, transactional defence relationships bring long-term risks.
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Philippine Boats Defy Chinese Blockade in South China Sea
Philippine boats defied a Chinese blockade to resupply troops on a disputed South China Sea shoal. The Philippines' coast guard ships escorted the boats past Chinese vessels trying to impede access. It's the latest flare-up in the region as China asserts control, often in violation of other claimants' rights. Despite risks of collisions, the Philippines is resisting China's encroachment.
The episode highlights intensifying tensions in Southeast Asian waters. As China ignores legal rulings against its claims, rival states push back. This raises chances of direct confrontation, even with US deterrence. However, appeasement risks surrendering strategic territory. Maintaining rules-based access is crucial but requires unity. For now, provocative cycles persist despite dangers. De-escalation ultimately relies on restraining actions, not just deterring them. But compromise seems elusive amid uncompromising assertions of sovereignty.
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Assessing Russian-Iranian Defence Cooperation
A new report assesses the drivers and outlook for defence cooperation between Russia and Iran. It finds the Ukraine war has aligned strategic interests and incentivized expanding ties. Iran gains leverage as an arms supplier, while Russia obtains drones and sanctions evasion knowledge. But historical mistrust persists, and diverging interests around Iran's nuclear program, regional disputes, and economic competition could still limit partnership growth.
The analysis highlights the complex factors shaping Russian-Iranian relations. While the Ukraine war has been an impetus, a true strategic alliance remains difficult. Managing conflicting interests and overcoming distrust require deft statecraft by both countries. For the US, their enhanced yet still tentative ties pose new regional challenges. But possibilities to exploit fissures exist. Ultimately, the durability of Russian-Iranian cooperation may hinge on the war's duration and resolution. For the United States, preventing deeper alignment between Moscow and Tehran will require nuanced policy approaches.
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Russia Signs Deal for Permanent Naval Base in Abkhazia
Russia has signed a deal for a permanent naval base on Abkhazia's Black Sea coast. Abkhazia broke away from Georgia after a 2008 war and is recognized only by Russia and a few other states. The base would expand Russia's Black Sea presence as its Crimea fleet faces Ukrainian attacks. Georgia condemned the move as violating its sovereignty over Abkhazia.
The base deal carries regional security implications. For Russia, it compensates for vulnerabilities in Crimea as Ukraine strikes its fleet. Abkhazia provides strategic depth. But the location near NATO members like Turkey raises tensions. For Georgia, it represents an infringement of its territorial integrity. While limited recognition of Abkhazia curbs the move's legitimacy, Russia disregards this norm. Ultimately, facts on the ground can prove decisive. With conflict ongoing, Russia will exploit opportunities to consolidate its military position regardless of international objections.