In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, October 12th
New President of the Maldives Signals Continuity in Ties with India, Sri Lanka Secures Preliminary Debt Restructuring Deal with China, and other stories.
Germany Commits €1 Billion in Military Aid to Ukraine
Germany will provide Ukraine with €1 billion in new military aid, including advanced Patriot air defence systems, as part of a new winter aid package. This significantly bolsters German support after initial post-invasion reluctance. Germany has now overtaken the UK and Poland to become the largest European provider of military aid after the United States.
The package aims to boost Ukraine's defences against aerial attacks as winter sets in. It underscores Germany's mounting commitment as the conflict drags on. High costs and uncertain outcomes have generated fatigue over time. But Russia's persistent aggression compels renewed assistance. Advanced systems like the Patriot require long training timelines, underscoring the need for long-term thinking in military aid. For Ukraine's Western partners, wavering public opinion at home may demand proactive persuasion.
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New President of the Maldives Signals Continuity in Ties with India
The opposition victory in the Maldives' presidential election has prompted speculation about a shift toward China and away from India. But the “India Out” campaign rhetoric likely overstates any drastic foreign policy change. Successive Maldivian governments have maintained good relations with both Asian powers out of pragmatic necessity.
While India has reason for caution, President-elect Muizzu already signals continuity in ties. His party's past anti-India posturing was often more theatrics than substance. Major infrastructure deals will likely proceed as planned, but a more balanced regional engagement from New Delhi is to be expected given Muizzu’s positive ties to Beijing. With the opposition now governing, political fragmentation may increase. But understanding Maldivian politics requires looking beyond convenient India-China binaries.
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Israel Launches Strikes on Syrian Airports
As Israel prepares a Gaza ground offensive, it launched retaliatory strikes on Syria's two main airports, knocking them out of service. This follows earlier rocket fire from Syria into the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The attacks came just before Iran's foreign minister was due to visit Damascus. Israel rarely acknowledges strikes in Syria but has targeted Iranian assets and arms shipments to Hezbollah there.
The airport strikes reveal Israel's resolve to deter regional actors from exploiting its Gaza focus. With Iran's top diplomat inbound, the timing of the attacks have sent a firm warning to Tehran. Still, restraint is crucial to avoid uncontrolled escalation, and the United States has thus far cautioned Israel while pledging full support. Syria highlights the complex regional dynamics at play alongside the Hamas conflict. Containing the violence remains a priority amid fraught tensions on multiple fronts. Broader conflagration remains an alarming possibility, requiring delicate diplomacy.
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Great Power Leadership Tested Amid Resurging Violence
The resurgence of widespread violence between Israel and Hamas will test whether today's great powers — the US, China, Russia and Europe — can effectively resolve crises as in the past. But all face limitations preventing decisive leadership. Russia is debilitated by its Ukraine quagmire. Europe struggles to act collectively. China avoids direct involvement. And US domestic discord hampers its foreign policy.
Their respective distractions risk escalating violence. Rather than orderly great power competition, multifaceted paralysis prevails. Local actors like Hamas and Azerbaijan exploit vacuums of authority. Unmanaged conflicts spread contagiously. Without reinvigorated global leadership, crises will only proliferate. The great powers must overcome internal constraints and re-engage abroad before it is too late. Collective action to address shared challenges is essential to restore stability. But national, ethnic and ideological passions currently prevailing frustrate cooperation.
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Sri Lanka Secures Preliminary Debt Restructuring Deal with China
Sri Lanka has reached a preliminary debt restructuring agreement with China's Export-Import Bank covering $4.2 billion, a crucial step toward unlocking further IMF bailout funds. Debt talks with China, Sri Lanka's largest bilateral creditor, had been a key hurdle to new IMF financing.
The deal reduces uncertainty and may encourage other lenders to restructure debt as Sri Lanka climbs back from default. But details are still needed, and more restructuring required, for full economic recovery. The agreement highlights China's pivotal role in addressing debt crises as a major lender. Its response is being closely watched. Further progress depends on China striking a balance between its interests and recipient countries' needs. For crisis-hit nations like Sri Lanka, tough reforms are still required despite relief.
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US to Deliver AIM-9M-Equipped Air Defence Systems to Ukraine
The United States military has announced its intention to deliver new air defence systems to Ukraine. These systems will be equipped to fire AIM-9M Sidewinder heat-seeking missiles. The specifics of these air defence systems, beyond their AIM-9M capabilities, remain undisclosed. The newly announced military aid package for Ukraine, valued at $200 million, encompasses an array of equipment, including precision aerial munitions, TOW anti-tank missiles, artillery, small arms ammunition, and undisclosed counter-drone and electronic warfare gear.
The implications of this move are multifaceted. AIM-9M-based air defence systems might be constructed from the ground up. The AIM-9M missiles offer a significant advantage in terms of availability, as these older Sidewinders are gradually being phased out in favour of newer AIM-9X variants. In parallel, other Western nations are enhancing Ukraine's short-range air defence capabilities. The United Kingdom has announced its aid package, which includes the supply of MSI-Defene Systems Terrahawk Paladin palletized short-range air defence systems, and Germany is transferring more Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns to bolster Ukraine's air defence.