In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, October 19th
Israel Approves Limited Aid Shipments to Gaza, China's Belt and Road Initiative Shifts Gears, and other stories.
Israel Approves Limited Aid Shipments to Gaza
After extensive pressure, Israel has approved initial shipments of food, water and medical aid into Gaza through Egypt's Rafah crossing. This comes after US President Biden visited Israel and spoke with Egyptian President El-Sisi, who helped broker the arrangement. In return, Israel demanded guarantees that Hamas would not confiscate the aid and would allow Red Cross access to hostages. However, the amount of aid allowed will be insufficient.
Allowing restricted aid delivery reflects Israel's calibrated response to critiques of the Gaza blockade. The humanitarian situation grew increasingly untenable politically. This modest concession may temper international criticism of Israel without prompting a full lifting of the siege. The timing after Biden's visit also suggests US pressure played a role. But the fundamental power imbalance means Israel retains control over Gaza's fate. Unless the underlying conflict is resolved, Palestinians will remain dependent on Israeli decisions about their access to basic needs.
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US Seizes Opportunities in Central Asia
Russia's influence in Central Asia is declining. The United States now sees an opening to advance its own ties with countries in Central Asia, both bilaterally and through regional bodies. A recent US-Central Asia summit signalled renewed US interest in supporting regional leaders who assert independence from Moscow. There are growing US calls for regional integration on trade, transport and the environment that sideline Russia.
With Russia economically hobbled, its sway as regional hegemon is fading. Russia's loosening grip creates a strategic opening that the US is leveraging. This serves the US aim of rolling back Russian influence, leaving Moscow overstretched and off-balance. As Russia ties down forces in Ukraine, its ability to dominate its near abroad frays. The US is working to fill this vacuum by boosting engagement. If Central Asian states view the US as an appealing counterweight, Russia's regional clout will suffer. However, displacing Russia entirely remains unlikely. It retains geographic advantages and security relationships.
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New Military Procurement Plans in Italy's 2023 Defence Budget
Italy's 2023 defence budget reveals major new military procurement plans. Over $1 billion is allocated for US-made rocket launchers and $4 billion for new Leopard tanks. Billions more will go towards armoured vehicles, drone swarms, and the Global Combat Air fighter program with the UK and Japan. Total defence spending rises 12.5% this year, continuing an upward trend. The shift shows Italy aims to rapidly modernize forces and boost heavy land warfare capabilities.
Italy's military investments highlight changing strategic priorities. Securing next-generation technologies signals Italy's intent to remain a credible military power. But lavish funding also risks stirring domestic unease over high debt. Meanwhile, European collaboration on programs like the Global Combat Air fighter enables the pooling of costs and expertise. Long-term sustainability depends on boosting European burden-sharing. For Italy, balancing military upgrade demands with fiscal caution remains an enduring challenge.
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China's Belt and Road Initiative Shifts Gears
The Belt and Road Forum hosted this week highlighted China's shifting approach to its signature infrastructure initiative. Absent were European leaders beyond Hungary, while developing economies took centre stage. President Xi announced new financing pools far below past yearly lending, suggesting smaller-scale projects ahead. China also proposed global AI rules. Though still proclaiming big goals, Beijing seems to be taking a more cautious approach to the Belt and Road Initiative.
The muted forum reveals recalibration of China's economic statecraft. With the United States driving its allies to be wary of over-reliance on China, grand projects are facing more scepticism. Meanwhile, tighter finances for Beijing compel refinement of the initiative. Pursuing discrete investments in poorer nations aligns with this. Promoting AI also shows Beijing's technological ambitions persist, despite rifts with the US. The Belt and Road's evolution reflects China adapting its flagship initiative to a challenging international environment.
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Cracks Emerge in US-Japan-Philippines Security Trilateral
While the new US-Japan-Philippines security trilateral is lauded in Washington and Tokyo, subtle cracks are appearing from Manila's view. Philippine's defence officials are said to privately voice unease over ties with China, Japan's deference to the US, and risks to Japan-Philippine ties. Manila still appears to prefer to diversify ties, rather than choose between the US and China.
The revelations highlight the complex strategic calculus for middle powers. Manila values the trilateral's security benefits but wants to preserve autonomy. Meanwhile, Washington and Tokyo focus on countering China, especially regarding Taiwan. Unless addressed, mismatched priorities could spark mistrust. But with deft management of expectations and roles, the partnership can evolve effectively. For the US, listening to Manila's concerns will have to be a part of Washington’s diplomatic efforts. Success for the US hinges on lasting alignment on core interests.
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Tough Winter Ahead for Ukraine
With no decisive breakthrough achieved during the summer counteroffensive, Ukraine now faces difficult choices in order to retain the battlefield initiative. The heavy attrition of experienced combat troops on both the Ukrainian and Russian sides has severely hampered the ability to undertake large-scale, coordinated offensive actions. Ukraine must now strike a delicate balance between maintaining constant pressure on Russian positions and reconstituting its own depleted forces for future operations.
Looming ammunition shortfalls for Ukrainian troops coupled with growing vulnerabilities in Ukraine's air defences may soon significantly curb its offensive capacity. Early battlefield victories inevitably fade as both men and matériel dwindle through continual combat. Advantage in a grinding war often swings back and forth between armies as resources decline. While Ukraine is unlikely to again seize wide swaths of territory soon, it may still be able to significantly sap Russian military strength while actively rebuilding its own depleted forces. All-out attritional combat still favours Russia in the long run due to its larger population and industrial capacity. However, creative asymmetric Ukrainian tactics could still unsettle and restrict Russian forces.