In Geopolitics Today - Thursday, September 16th
Australia, the UK & the US Enter Into Indo-Pacific Security Pact and Tit-for-Tat Missile Tests on the Korean Peninsula
Australia, the UK & the US Enter Into Indo-Pacific Security Pact
Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States have announced a significant new security pact which will see Canberra on the receiving end of many advanced US technologies, including nuclear-powered submarines. The security arrangement, labelled Aukus, professes its intention as that of defending the three countries’ “shared interests in the Indo-Pacific” and is one of the most significant security arrangements between the three since World War Two.
The agreement is centred around boosting military capabilities and, without specifying so in detail, is primarily aimed at containing the spread of Chinese influence. The agreement covers security cooperation and technology transfers in key areas such as artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, long range strike capabilities, and the development of underwater systems. It also includes a nuclear component expressed as the development of nuclear defence infrastructure, the most significant of which is the plan to build an Australian nuclear-powered submarine fleet. It will be interesting to note just how Australia, a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, will find a way to field these nuclear-powered submarines without being in contravention to its treaty obligations.
The deal drew the ire of adversaries and allies alike. China's government sources are quoted as saying that this deepened security cooperation focused on the Indo-Pacific between the US, UK, and Australia on nuclear-powered submarines “gravely undermines regional peace and stability, aggravates the arms race and hurts the international non-proliferation efforts.” Allies too were left bemused as Australia was forced to notify France that it would end its contract to build 12 conventional submarines. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian expressed “total incomprehension” at the move from Canberra to purchase US-made nuclear-powered submarines instead. He went on to say that the agreement is a “a stab in the back,” for which France will be “demanding explanations from both sides.”
Read more about this story here.
Tit-for-Tat Missile Tests on the Korean Peninsula
The Korean Peninsula has seen a large number of missile tests accompany a flurry of diplomatic activity this week. North Korea tested new types of missiles as the US, South Korea and Japan held trilateral talks to discuss nuclear diplomacy with the North and, similarly, as Chinese officials were in Seoul to conduct talks with South Korean officials, South Korea made its first successful launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile.
North Korea demonstrated the significant strides made under its missile program as Pyongyang tested a new type of cruise missile that is said to have travelled almost 1,000 miles to its target. North Korean media described the new missile as a “strategic weapon of great significance,” and if reports are to be believed, the new cruise missile capability will allow Pyongyang to strike Japan and other targets in the region. Cruise missiles that fly at low altitudes are difficult to pick up on radar, and these types of missiles are not covered under the UN sanctions regime on North Korea’s missile program. If indeed Pyongyang has an effective long-range cruise missile at its disposal, the strategic calculations of many regional actors will have to account for this new reality.
Seoul too has taken an active approach to missile development following the lifting of restrictions over South Korea’s missile development agreed with the United States in May. The most notable test conducted by South Korea was unquestionably the successful test-launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile. The achievement means that South Korea is only the eighth naval power in the world capable of launching ballistic missiles from submarines. Seoul says that its new non-nuclear ballistic missiles are intended to target heavily fortified positions deep in North Korean territory. To bolster its missile capabilities, South Korea is now also testing an advanced land-based ballistic missile, a new air-launched missile, and has made significant advances on a supersonic anti-ship cruise missile.
Read more about this story here.