In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, September 8th
The Philippines and the Fourth Taiwan Crisis, The Viability of Canadian Oil for European Customers, and other stories.
The Philippines and the Fourth Taiwan Crisis
In a more turbulent region, the Philippines has little choice but to hedge as a rising middle power. As a middle power, the ideal course of action for the Philippines is to uphold the status quo in the region by abstaining from overtly supporting either Beijing or Washington. However, strategic realities suggest that the Fourth Taiwan Crisis could become a possible flashpoint for a direct Sino-American war, forcing the Philippines to enter the conflict.
This reality makes it critical for Manila’s security establishment to prepare for the possible fallout of a major conflict over Taiwan. The Philippines’ defence posture already leans toward falling under a US security umbrella in the event of overt war across the Taiwan Strait. In particular, the longstanding Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with Washington could be activated in the event of a severe regional crisis. Activating the MDT would allow the US to use military bases across the Philippines and possibly even draw in Filipino military personnel to serve with their US counterparts.
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The Pentagon Suspends F-35 Deliveries
The United States Department of Defense has temporarily stopped accepting all deliveries of the F-35 fighter aircraft manufactured by Lockheed Martin. The decision comes after Pentagon officials found that an alloy used in magnets on the jet’s turbomachine pumps was produced in China.
The F-35 turbo is manufactured by Honeywell, and provides power to start the fighter aircraft’s engine. Honeywell was informed that one of its magnet suppliers had used a cobalt and samarium alloy manufactured in China. The office in charge of the F-35 program has made the assessment that the alloy produced in China does not present a safety or security risk. As a result, there are currently no plans to ground or recall the entire F-35 fleet. However, as all new F-35s are now on hold on the production line, it is unclear when F-35s with magnets made from a new alloy will be transferred to the armed forces of the United States.
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The Viability of Canadian Oil for European Customers
Canada is the world’s fourth largest producer of crude oil. Yet unlike most major producers and exporters of crude oil, Canada mostly has a single export market — the United States. As such, most of Canada’s export infrastructure is geared to move crude oil to the United States. This means that Canada has only a limited ability to change crude flows to Europe as a ban on Russian oil approaches.
In early June, the EU announced its sixth package of sanctions, which included measures to ban the import of Russian crude oil to the EU via tanker. The ban is increasing to 90% of all Russian crude by December, prompting Canadian officials to explore the viability of oil transfers to Europe. Newfoundland and Labrador already exports crude oil to Europe, though an increase in the volume produced would be necessary to put a dent in Russian-sourced supplies. Of the limited supply of Canadian crude available for export, crude oil and its many by-products can be sent from Vancouver by several routes, including the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and around Cape Horn.
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India and China Disengage Troops from Gogra-Hot Springs
India and China have begun pulling back troops from one of the key areas of contention along their disputed border. The move follows bilateral consultations in which both powers agreed to take steps to lower tensions in a standoff that has at times led to clashes.
The two countries have stationed tens of thousands of soldiers at the Line of Actual Control (LOAC), a disputed border which separates China’s and Indian-held territories from Arunachal Pradesh in the east to Ladakh in the west. These troops have been backed by artillery, tanks and fighter jets, with sporadic skirmishes taking place across the LOAC. There are three key friction points along the disputed border between the countries, with the outposts at Gogra-Hot Springs now seeing both countries disengage their armed forces for the time being.