In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, September 21st
India Suspends Visa Services for Canadians, Azerbaijan Seizes Control of Nagorno-Karabakh, and other stories.
The United States Advances Atlantic Partnership
The United States is spearheading the Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation, a pact among countries bordering the Atlantic to boost ties on issues like climate, maritime security, and technology cooperation. Nearly 30 nations across Europe, Africa, and the Americas signed on to the non-defence agreement on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. It aims to better tackle shared challenges and leverage the Atlantic's potential under the leadership of the US.
Seeking to strengthen ties with Atlantic states, the US spearheaded a new partnership pact signed by nearly 30 nations. It aims to foster cooperation on issues like climate, maritime security, and technology. While light on specifics, the deal provides a framework for advancing shared interests. The new Atlantic accord signals recognition that cross-border threats require collective action. For the US, it promotes its role as a facilitator of multilateral initiatives. Yet turning goodwill into concrete gains will require dedicated diplomatic effort. Success depends on following through with resources and technical support for partners, avoiding domination by Western powers. If inclusively implemented, the pact could yield practical benefits and serve as a modest deterrent to Chinese overtures across Atlantic coastlines.
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India Suspends Visa Services for Canadians
India has taken the decision to suspend visa services for Canadian citizens and has urged Canada to reduce its diplomatic presence in India. This decision comes as part of an ongoing diplomatic dispute between the two nations, primarily centred around Canada's investigation into the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in June. India has denied any involvement and has termed the allegations as “absurd and motivated.” In response, Canada has announced the pursuit of “credible allegations” linking Indian agents to the murder.
The Indian government has cited security threats to its diplomatic operations in Canada as the reason behind the suspension of visa processing for Canadians. In addition, India has called for a reduction in the number of Canadian diplomats in India to ensure “parity” in diplomatic presence. This ongoing dispute underscores how diaspora groups can influence and strain relations between nations. In India, the government's focus on cracking down on separatism, particularly Sikh separatism, is a key consideration, while in Canada, politicians may be influenced by the Sikh diaspora's voting power. As both nations take domestic political considerations into account, bilateral ties are experiencing collateral damage. While the economic impact is expected to be limited, there is a risk that political collaboration could suffer.
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Russian Cossack Groups Gain Expanded Military Role
Russia's state-backed Cossack groups are expanding their role in the military, raising concerns amid Ukraine border tensions. The head of the All-Russian Cossack Society recently vowed Cossacks will be a "stronghold" defending Russia's interests. This follows pacts with the military on coordinating Cossack reserves and volunteers. Cossacks aided Russia's 2014 Crimea annexation.
The empowerment of Cossack paramilitary groups reflects their value to the Kremlin as nationalist proxies. Their renewed prominence suggests they could again assist in potential operations. While details remain uncertain, their mobilization hints at Russian contingencies as Moscow’s diplomacy faces struggles. Cossack volunteers give Moscow flexible capabilities to deny oversight. However, their involvement would likely draw international condemnation. With Cossacks glorifying Russian identity, the authorities appear ready to employ them where regular forces risk political blowback.
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Azerbaijan Seizes Control of Nagorno-Karabakh
Azerbaijan has gained control of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region after a military offensive forced ethnic Armenian forces to surrender. Baku says its operation restored its territorial sovereignty. But Armenia accused Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing, even as it disavowed direct military involvement. Russia brokered the ceasefire, allowing Azerbaijan to take over. Nagorno-Karabakh's fate will now be decided in peace talks, with Baku holding greater leverage.
Azerbaijan's decisive victory shifts the strategic landscape, as a weakened Armenia loses its main bargaining chip. With control restored, Baku can dictate terms while threatening further action. For Russia, its waning influence is exposed, as peacekeeper detachments stood by. The balance of power has shifted, and future peace talks will play a pivotal role in shaping the region's stability. The involvement of key stakeholders, including Russia, will continue to be of paramount importance in seeking a peaceful and sustainable resolution to the longstanding dispute.
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Diplomatic Row Between Poland and Ukraine
Amid election pressures, Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated his country will no longer transfer weapons to Ukraine, before officials walked back the comments. The remarks came amid a dispute over Ukrainian grain imports that has strained the bilateral relationship. While Poland affirmed it will continue contracted arms deliveries, the episode exposed political fissures in a key relationship.
Western allies voiced concerns about unity, leading the Polish government to temper the rhetoric, but risks remain. Domestic politics are intruding into what has been steadfast support for Ukraine. With the war intensifying, any wavering of backing raises risks, especially due to Poland's role as a conduit for aid. While the allies have downplayed divisions, the squabble reveals lingering sensitivities. As the conflict grinds on, maintaining cohesion will require defusing periodic disagreements before they escalate.
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Italy’s Gradual Withdrawal from China's Belt and Road Initiative
Italy's new conservative government under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni plans to withdraw from China's Belt and Road Initiative in 2023, despite being the only G7 member to join in 2019. Citing meagre economic gains and strategic concerns by the US and EU, Rome aims to align its China policy with Western allies. But while Italy would exit the formal BRI agreement, economic ties with China persist via companies, banks, and local governments.
Hoping to capitalize on Chinese investment, Italy signed onto BRI in 2019 despite US and EU reservations. But with underwhelming results, Rome, now under a conservative government, intends to exit the deal to align with Western allies concerned about over-reliance on China. However, Italian companies and local governments sustain pragmatic engagement. Italy's impending BRI exit highlights growing scepticism of China's vast infrastructure plan. Chinese investment has fallen short of grand hopes in much of Europe. Yet economic lures remain even as strategic rivalry intensifies. Italy exemplifies this tension — eager for Chinese capital yet wary of over-dependence. Its selective disengagement from BRI projects signals a middle path — shunning formal ties but sustaining pragmatic cooperation. But this complex balancing act will be testing for Italy and its relationship with some of its allies.