In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, September 14th
Catastrophic Flooding Reveals Libya's Fragile State, Iraqi Kurds Seek US Intervention in Escalating Crisis with Baghdad, and other stories.
Catastrophic Flooding Reveals Libya's Fragile State
The Libyan city of Derna suffered catastrophic damage when severe flooding from Storm Daniel hit earlier this week. Over 6,000 are dead and 10,000 missing, with the death toll potentially reaching 20,000 in Derna alone. Entire families have been wiped out and thousands displaced as floodwaters burst dams and engulfed the city. The storm also battered other eastern Libyan towns.
The disaster is straining Libya's divided politics and infrastructure, as the country has parallel administrations in its west and east. However, the rival governments are said to be cooperating on aid efforts as international assistance gathers pace. While posing an immense humanitarian challenge, the shared trauma may provide some impetus for reconciliation between Libya's factions. But the sheer scale of the devastation will severely test Libya's capacity to respond and rebuild, especially given its fragmented politics. The flooding disaster has further revealed Libya's lack of resilient infrastructure after years of instability.
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US and Bahrain Forge Strategic Security and Economic Alliance
The United States and Bahrain have inked a security and economic partnership, marking a renewed commitment to Gulf allies by the US. This agreement is set to bolster military collaboration with Bahrain, a strategically vital location that houses the US Navy's 5th Fleet. Additionally, it could serve as a potential model for similar agreements with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, part of the US strategy to counterbalance Iran.
This development comes at a time of domestic unrest in Bahrain and follows its normalization of diplomatic ties with Israel. The partnership aims to strengthen economic connections, extending beyond existing free trade arrangements. Notably, it also promotes the development of secure digital networks, marking a pioneering step in such cooperative agreements. Deepening alignment with Bahrain holds substantial geopolitical implications for the United States, positioning it strategically in the region. While the pact may be somewhat limited compared to the aspirations of certain Gulf states, it signifies a shift towards a new security framework in the region as global powers adapt to evolving threats.
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Argentina and Paraguay's Dispute over River Tolls
A dispute has recently surfaced between Argentina and Paraguay concerning Argentina's decision to impose tolls on barges navigating the Parana River. Paraguay argues that these tolls breach trade agreements, while Argentina insists they are charges for dredging services. This disagreement led Paraguay to temporarily restrict water flows last week, which had repercussions on an energy dam. Argentina is indebted to Paraguay for energy sales, but Paraguay also owes a substantial amount for the construction costs of the dam.
This toll dispute lays bare the economic and political tensions that exist between these neighbouring countries and trading partners. While Paraguay acknowledges Argentina's right to levy a toll, the dispute centres on the pricing and the unilateral approach taken. The resolution of these intertwined financial issues, involving energy and infrastructure debts, poses a significant challenge. As Paraguay stands firm on its rights concerning the waterway, this dispute underscores the extent of interdependence among economies and energy sources reliant on river systems. A critical necessity will be to find a compromise to prevent further escalations in this ongoing situation.
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Iraqi Kurds Seek US Intervention in Escalating Crisis with Baghdad
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Masrour Barzani has reached out to the United States, seeking intervention in an escalating crisis with the central government in Baghdad. The crisis revolves around budgetary allocations, oil sales, and territorial disputes, with Barzani expressing concerns that the Kurdistan Region's stability and viability may be at risk if the situation continues unchecked.
In a letter to President Biden, Barzani emphasized the urgent need for Washington's engagement, highlighting the leverage the US retains over Baghdad to help diffuse the crisis. The deepening crisis between the Kurdistan Region and Baghdad poses significant challenges, with economic hardships, disputes over oil revenues, and longstanding grievances contributing to the growing tension. While Washington's attention is currently divided among other international issues, Barzani's letter urges Washington to remain engaged in Iraq. Failure to address these disputes, Barzani argues, could lead to further instability in the region. Finding a sustainable solution to these complex issues is crucial for both the Kurdistan Region and Iraq, which will demand careful diplomatic attention to prevent further escalation.
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Nigeria's Electricity Grid Suffers Total System Collapse
Nigeria experienced a major electricity grid collapse, resulting in widespread power blackouts across the country. The outage affected all 36 Nigerian states and the capital, Abuja. The grid has been facing multiple collapses in recent times, causing uncertainty about when power will be fully restored.
The Enugu Electricity Distribution Company, which serves southeastern Nigeria, confirmed the “total system collapse.” Power generation initially dropped to zero, later recovering to 273 megawatts (MW) by 10:30 GMT, a fraction of the daily average of 4,100MW. Nigeria has 12,500MW of installed capacity but struggles to produce even a quarter of that, leading to frequent power shortages. With the grid's erratic performance and rising fuel prices due to subsidy removal, many households and businesses rely on generators for power. Efforts are underway to resolve the power outage, with significant progress made in restoring electricity following the grid failure caused by a fire at a power plant.
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China's Dual Approach to Taiwan
China is employing a dual strategy towards Taiwan as the island nation approaches its 2023 presidential election. On one hand, Beijing is promoting new economic opportunities in Fujian province, specifically targeting Taiwanese businesses. On the other hand, China has escalated military flights and naval activity around Taiwan. This carrot-and-stick approach aligns with Beijing's long-standing strategy of alternating between coercion and inducement to further its objectives regarding Taiwan.
These recent displays of coercion and economic overtures highlight the complex nature of cross-strait relations. While China asserts its sovereignty over Taiwan, it also aims to incentivize peaceful unification to avoid direct conflict with the United States. However, the increased military activity carries the risk of miscalculation. Taiwan has deepened its economic ties with China over the years, but its government and the public remain on the fence about political integration. For now, Beijing's calibrated pressure underscores its considerable power but also reveals the limited options available to Chinese policymakers regarding the Taiwan issue, as tensions continue to simmer.