In Geopolitics Today: Thursday, September 7th
Western Powers Pressure the UAE Over Russia Sanctions Compliance, ASEAN Summit Ends With Little Progress on South China Sea, Myanmar, and other stories.
Ties Between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan Bring Energy Connectivity
Relations between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have grown significantly warmer in recent years, with bilateral trade reaching $1 billion in 2021, a fivefold increase since 2017. This is largely due to efforts by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to strengthen ties with neighbouring countries after coming to power in 2016. The warming relations between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have broader implications for Central Asian cooperation.
In August 2022, Uzbekistan signed a deal to import up to 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan now views Uzbekistan as a key transit country for supplying energy to other Central Asian nations like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. There has also been an easing of travel restrictions, with almost 40,000 visits by Turkmen citizens to Uzbekistan in the first half of 2022, compared to only 1,100 visits in the same period last year. Warming relations pave the way for increased energy connectivity in the region, with Uzbekistan serving as a transit hub for Turkmen gas exports. This could enhance energy security for landlocked countries like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Further integration through trade and eased travel between the Central Asian states could spur broader economic growth and development.
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Western Powers Pressure the UAE Over Russia Sanctions Compliance
Senior officials from the US, UK, and EU visited the UAE this week to press the UAE to halt exports to Russia that could aid its war effort in Ukraine. The UAE is a member of OPEC+ which includes Russia, and has maintained ties with Moscow despite sanctions. The US has sanctioned UAE firms for shipping semiconductors and drones to Russia. Though the UAE pledges compliance, it maintains neutrality on the war and growing Russia ties.
The West's push to restrict dual-use technology exports to Russia signals growing worries that Moscow is circumventing sanctions. The UAE's continued trade with Russia reflects balancing ties between East and West. While not directly contravening sanctions, the UAE risks damaging ties with Western allies by enabling sanctioned entities. Its stated commitment to monitoring compliance provides diplomatic cover, but may not assuage Western concerns. While the UAE values relations with both, its refusal to cut economic ties reflects wariness of bearing costs for Western strategic priorities.
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Indonesia Advances Domestic Military Industry Goals
Indonesia has continued its military modernization under Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, making progress on major defence deals, including a $14 billion agreement to purchase 24 F-15 fighter jets from the United States. Jakarta has also signed deals for Black Hawk helicopters, French Rafale jets, drones from Turkey, and domestic production of frigates and fast attack craft. This accelerating pace of acquisitions aims to upgrade Indonesia's air force and navy capabilities.
Indonesia's increased defence spending, while still under 1% of GDP, reflects its desire for greater self-reliance and indigenous production capacity. The deals involve technology transfers intended to build local skills. While this build-up occurs amid geopolitical tensions, Indonesia's approach is pragmatic — partnering only with those defence firms willing to enable Indonesia’s domestic defence industry, rather than merely balancing against foreign threats. Provided spending remains fiscally responsible, a more capable defence industry would surely boost Indonesia's regional security role.
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ASEAN Summit Ends With Little Progress on South China Sea, Myanmar
Southeast Asian leaders concluded their annual summit without substantial progress on critical issues, including the South China Sea tensions and the conflict in Myanmar. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meetings in Jakarta revealed deep divisions around vital security matters. While over $38 billion worth of deals and economic initiatives were identified during the summit, including the development of an electric vehicle ecosystem, geopolitical challenges remained unresolved.
The summit's inability to make significant headway on these issues underscores the challenges ASEAN encounters when dealing with regional disputes involving major powers. While economic cooperation and initiatives are being pursued, geopolitical tensions continue to simmer beneath the surface. The South China Sea dispute remains a pressing concern, and ASEAN's attempts to develop a code of conduct with China to prevent conflict have yet to yield substantial results. Similarly, the ongoing crisis in Myanmar poses a significant diplomatic challenge, with little progress in implementing a plan to halt the violence and restore stability. ASEAN's ability to navigate these complex geopolitical issues while fostering economic cooperation will be a key test of the organization's role in the region.
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Great Power Rivalry Thwarts Cooperation on Orbital Debris
The escalating great power competition is expected to impede global cooperation in addressing the growing challenge of space debris in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The European Space Agency reported a recent incident where a piece of space debris was struck, causing fragmentation and further clutter in LEO. With more than 25,000 pieces of space junk and debris larger than 10 centimetres already in LEO, the congestion in this orbital zone poses significant risks to operational satellites and spacecraft.
Efforts to mitigate the space debris issue are complicated by the dual-use nature of some proposed technologies, which can both remove debris and potentially target other countries' satellites. This has hindered global collaboration on debris removal initiatives. As tensions in LEO continue to rise, governments vie for satellite deployment and anti-satellite capabilities, undermining cooperation on space debris removal. As countries expand their space budgets and develop capabilities to protect their satellites, the risk of space debris-related incidents, including collisions and uncontrolled re-entries, increases, potentially disrupting satellite communications and endangering Earth's surface.
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Germany Seeks Expanded Military Ties with Indonesia
The German government is expanding its military presence in Southeast Asia, particularly through joint exercises with Indonesia. German military observers are participating in the Super Garuda Shield exercise, which involves several countries, including the United States, Japan, France, and Great Britain. Germany is also planning to conduct joint naval exercises with Indonesia during an Asia-Pacific tour next year.
However, Indonesia is steadfast in its commitment to maintaining neutrality and not allowing itself to be drawn into great power competition, particularly against China. Despite Western efforts to align Indonesia more closely with their strategic goals, the Indonesian government has emphasized its desire to have good relations with multiple countries, including China and Russia. This stance was reaffirmed at the ASEAN Summit, where Indonesia, along with other Southeast Asian nations, emphasized their commitment to neutrality and cooperation for peace and prosperity in the region.