In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, April 19th
Iran Working to Improve Ties with Countries in Central Asia, IMF Forecasts Growing Risks to Global Financial Stability, Limits to Russian Air Power in Eastern Ukraine
Iran Working to Improve Ties with Countries in Central Asia
While Iran has refused to formally recognize the new Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Tehran has nonetheless actively sought diplomatic engagement with the Taliban government in Kabul. With Russia distracted by the war in Ukraine, there are opportunities for officials in Tehran to lay the groundwork for positive relations between Afghanistan and Iran for years to come. Iranian officials appear determined to do just that as they embark on a diplomatic drive intended to establish economic and military ties with countries in the region.
Iranian officials likely understand that Tehran’s position in Central Asia could prove to be attractive to others in the region. By positioning itself as an independent power-broker which is not aligned to other great powers, Iran is able to offer gains through trade and investment at little political cost. The landlocked countries of Central Asia often have few alternatives to embracing the political positions of China, Russia or the United States on a number of issues, so a regional power such as Iran may prove a lucrative partner to those who wish to avoid getting dragged into great power politics. Afghanistan lies at the very centre of the region, and functions as a crossroads for trade and the movement of peoples across the whole region. As such, Tehran seeks functional economic relations with the Islamic Emirate, both of which are now said to be discussing the revival of a rail project that would connect the city of Herat in Afghanistan to Khaf in Iran.
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IMF Forecasts Growing Risks to Global Financial Stability
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of growing risks to global financial stability. The IMF believes the war in Ukraine will test the resiliency of the international financial system, raised warnings about instability in commodity markets as a major threat moving forward. On the whole, the IMF identified inflation as a key indicator of rising instability, stating that central banks are now “walking a tightrope” as many now seek to drastically reduce inflation in their domestic economies.
The IMF report emphasizes that the most drastic effects will be felt from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Of those most directly involved in the war, the UK is expected to have its annual growth estimate cut from 4.7% to 3.7%. The United States will suffer the least damage from the war, and has had its economic growth forecast for 2022 cut from 4% to 3.7%. Germany and Italy — both of which have considerable economic ties to Russia — have had their growth estimates cut from 3.8% to 2.1% and from 3.8% to 2.3%, respectively. The Russian economy is set to contract by 8.5% this year, while the Ukrainian economy will shrink by an estimated 35% in 2022. The IMF acknowledges that Europe will experience the effects of the war more directly than other regions due to its geographic proximity to the war, reliance on Russian energy, and the exposure of banks and financial institutions to Russian financial assets and markets.
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Limits to Russian Air Power in Eastern Ukraine
The opening weeks of the Russian air campaigns over Ukraine were characterised by an inability of Russia’s Air Force to secure air superiority. In particular, Russian air power failed to suppress or destroy Ukraine’s air defence systems, allowing the Ukrainian armed forces to strike Russian military columns with its fleet of fighter aircraft and Bayraktar TB2 drones. Now, with the Russian military focusing its operations in eastern Ukraine, Russia may find more success conducting its air operations over territory with far fewer medium- and short-range surface-to-air missile systems.
The Ukrainian Air Force is likely to struggle to influence the course of the ground war in eastern Ukraine. While the distances from airstrips in central and western Ukraine to the Donbas will limit the ability of Ukrainian Mig-29 fighters, Russian air superiority here is not a given due to a number of technical limitations. The first of these is a shortage of modern precision-guided munitions for battlefield use, limiting Russia’s ability to accurately strike time-sensitive targets. Second, Russian fighter aircraft lack targeting pods which allow fighter aircraft to acquire targets from distances beyond the effective range of ground-based anti-aircraft fire. Third, the Russian Air Force has limited experience in conducting close air support missions, and coordinating close air support for its ground forces will be challenging.
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