In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, April 11th
UN Report Predicts Rapid Population Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, Leaks Reveal Potential Rifts between the US and its Middle East Allies, and other stories.
UN Report Predicts Rapid Population Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
The population in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow at a rapid pace in the coming decades, according to the United Nations’ 2022 World Population Prospect report. The report predicts that countries in this region will be responsible for more than half of the global population increase anticipated through 2050, growing at a rate of 2.7% per year. The number of people living below the Sahara desert is expected to double in that time to more than 3 billion, with the coastal West Africa, the Great Lakes region, and the Ethiopian highlands seeing the sharpest population spikes.
This rapid population growth has the potential to create both opportunities and challenges for sub-Saharan Africa, with significant implications ranging from migration to the global balance of power. For example, food security will become increasingly challenging as agricultural land becomes scarcer, while technological advances will make Africa's youth populations more connected than ever. African governments must, therefore, undertake critical demographic interventions over the next few years, including encouraging lower fertility rates and investing in education as well as agricultural innovation and production, to harness their population growth as an engine for political, economic, and social progress.
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US Treasury Secretary Urges for Urgent Debt Relief for African Allies
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is urging for urgent resolution to requests for restructuring sovereign debts from Ghana and Zambia, and concluding a debt treatment for Sri Lanka. Yellen is expected to meet counterparts from around the world during the meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to speed up the debt relief process and make it more predictable. However, the G20 common framework set up to help low-income countries has failed to deliver quick debt relief, with 60% of low-income countries in or near debt distress.
The senior Treasury official highlighted the need for the US and China to collaborate on these challenges, and sources familiar with the matter said that the IMF, the World Bank, and India planned to issue a statement after Wednesday's meeting. A record number of developing nations are at risk of a debt crisis, with ballooning inflation escalating borrowing costs, and a strong dollar jacking up the cost for borrowing countries to repay loans and raise more money. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva last week took aim at China, saying Beijing needed to “speed up” its work on debt restructuring requests.
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Leaks Reveal Potential Rifts between the US and its Middle East Allies
Recent leaked documents have revealed potential rifts between the United States and some of its key allies in the Middle East. One document suggests that Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi may be covertly sending weapons to Russia, a move that could have significant implications for US relations with Egypt. Another document reveals that Russian spies claim to have an agreement with UAE security officials to work together against US and UK intelligence agencies, indicating that even close US allies may be pursuing their own interests.
Other major revelations from the leaked documents include details of CIA recruitment efforts, internal plans of the Russian military group Wagner, and assessments of Ukraine's battlefield by the Pentagon. The leak has caused concern about intelligence-sharing relationships between the US and its partner countries, with many suggesting that a US source is responsible for the leak. While the breach could prove embarrassing for Russia, it has sent US intelligence and DOJ officials scrambling to identify the source of the leaks. These revelations suggest that even as Washington seeks to build and strengthen its alliances, it may face challenges from within as its allies pursue their own interests.
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France and China Reaffirm Commitment to Revive Iran Nuclear Deal
Last week, leaders from France and China made headlines as they issued a joint statement expressing their commitment to revive the stalled nuclear deal with Iran. While in China, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna also held a rare meeting with her Iranian counterpart to discuss various regional issues, including the Iranian nuclear program. These developments highlight France's efforts to reduce its dependency on the United States and to pursue independent diplomacy.
France's increasing engagement with China and its ties with Gulf countries position it as a key player in expanding its leverage in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq and Iran. Paris has been vocal in its criticism of Tehran, but it maintains a position that is in favour of direct dialogue with Iran’s senior leadership to reach a new agreement on its nuclear program. For now, China could be the missing piece in the puzzle, as France hopes Beijing could push Iran to return to the deal.
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Bitcoin's Potential as a Reserve Currency Faces Challenges
The emergence of non-state cybercurrencies, such as Bitcoin, has raised questions about their potential impact on global monetary systems and the redistribution of power among nations. Some observers believe that Bitcoin could become a major reserve currency, offering an alternative to fiat money and challenging the dominance of the US dollar. However, others question the technical, economic, and political obstacles facing Bitcoin's adoption as a universal currency.
One of the major challenges facing Bitcoin is its limited money supply, as no more than 21 million units can exist under its structural design. Furthermore, Bitcoin's exchange rates are highly volatile, making it behave more like an unstable speculative asset than a reliable medium of exchange. Despite these challenges, Bitcoin has gained mainstream acceptance and attracted the involvement of traditional financial firms and exchanges. Nonetheless, its prospects as a major reserve currency remain uncertain without the backing of a powerful state. Therefore, the ultimate extent of Bitcoin's geopolitical ramifications remains unknown.