In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, April 18th
UAE's Foreign Policy Prioritizes Mediation and Economic Ties, Fighting Continues in Sudan Despite Supposed Ceasefire, and other stories.
AUKUS Deal Sparks Pushback from Pacific Island Nations
The Pacific region is currently facing a new challenge as the United States and Western allies, including Australia and the United Kingdom, seek to counter China's influence. The AUKUS deal, which will result in Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines from the US, has been met with a strong reaction from China, which described the agreement as a reflection of bloc politics.
Despite some regional support for the AUKUS deal, there has also been pushback from several Pacific Island nations, particularly on issues such as climate change and the environment. A communique from four former Pacific Island prime ministers criticized the $368 billion put aside for the deal, saying that climate change, not defence, is the greatest security threat to the region. The pushback highlights the challenges of balancing competing geopolitical interests with the need to address critical issues facing the Pacific region, such as climate change.
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UAE's Foreign Policy Prioritizes Mediation and Economic Ties
The UAE's recent foreign policy has centred on engagement, commerce, energy, and conflict de-escalation. Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE president, and his siblings, have promoted diplomacy and mediation as key elements of their strategy. Furthermore, the UAE's ties with China and Russia remain positive, with Dubai capitalizing on the frosty relationship between Russia and Europe, by boosting tourism and non-oil trade between the UAE and Russia.
On the regional level, the UAE has normalized relations with four major competing states in the region—Iran, Turkey, Israel, and Qatar. The UAE has accelerated its re-engagement with Iran, and the two countries plan to increase bilateral trade from $15 billion in 2022 to $30 billion in 2025. Moreover, there are more than 400,000 Iranian expatriates living in the UAE. The new emphasis in foreign policy led the UAE to shift its focus away from activism in Yemen, Libya, and Syria towards neutrality, trade, and diplomacy. As a result, the UAE has become a mediator between conflicting states, hoping to reshape the 'axes' in the region.
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Fighting Continues in Sudan Despite Supposed Ceasefire
The situation in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, remains dire despite a supposed 24-hour ceasefire between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The ceasefire was agreed upon by two rival generals to allow civilians access to medical help and supplies. However, reports indicate that the fighting has not abated, and there are continued heavy weapons fire and aerial bombardments.
While the RSF agreed to a 24-hour ceasefire, senior Sudanese military officials appeared to contradict each other on whether the military would join. The ongoing fighting in Khartoum and other cities remains relentless, indicating that a full-scale civil war could occur in the coming days. Additionally, RSF forces have allegedly attacked US and EU diplomatic personnel in Khartoum, leading to strong condemnation from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell.
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China and India Importing Russian Crude Above the Price Cap
India and China have been purchasing large quantities of Russian crude oil this month at prices exceeding the G7-imposed price cap of $60 per barrel. The Russian flagship crude Urals has been trading above the price cap and has primarily been shipped to India and China. India has received over 70% of the shipments, with China accounting for about 20%. Although neither country has joined the Price Cap Coalition that imposed the cap on Russian crude oil, they have been increasing their imports of Russian oil to record levels.
The purpose of the price cap was to decrease Russia's oil revenues and pressure Moscow regarding its military actions in Ukraine. However, the cap has faced opposition from certain EU countries, such as Poland, who believe that it is too lenient to force Russia to change its behaviour. Despite this pressure, the price cap is expected to remain unchanged for the time being. Critics of the cap argue that it allows oil to flow, while supporters contend that it reduces Russian revenues. Additionally, shipping costs have recently decreased significantly, easing ice conditions in Russian ports and making more tankers available.
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Spanish Government Blocks Andalucía's Farming Plan
The Spanish government is set to block a plan from the Andalucía regional government to allow new farming development near the protected Doñana National Park, as scarce water supplies in the southern Spanish region continue to cause tension between agricultural and environmental groups over water allocation. The plan has been criticized by environmentalists, who say it will threaten the biodiversity of the world-famous natural park.
This issue highlights the growing politicization of water resource management in Spain, amid shrinking water reserves on the continent as increasingly frequent and severe droughts exacerbate tensions. As the effects of climate change continue to cause water scarcity, similar dynamics are set to appear more frequently across Europe, particularly in the Mediterranean region, where tensions over water distribution have already recently escalated into violence between local political groups and state authorities.