In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, April 25th
China's Infrastructure Projects in Indian Ocean Raise Concerns, 72-hour Ceasefire Announced in Sudan, and other stories.
China's Infrastructure Projects in Indian Ocean Raise Concerns
The construction of new facilities on Myanmar's Great Coco Island and speculation over a radar station in Sri Lanka's southern region has raised concerns over China's influence in the Indian Ocean. Smaller nations are finding themselves in a difficult situation amidst the ongoing power struggle between China and the United States. Myanmar and Sri Lanka, for example, are grappling with how to maintain their economic ties with China while also keeping their security ties with India intact. This delicate balancing act has become increasingly challenging, particularly as rumours of Chinese military presence in both countries continue to swirl.
For smaller nations located in strategic chokepoints like Myanmar and Sri Lanka, navigating the complex web of regional and global power dynamics can be daunting. Many lack the understanding of the larger security context necessary to devise effective communication strategies to assuage the concerns of other stakeholders. As a result, they often find themselves caught between the interests of major powers, further exacerbating their precarious position. India's concerns about alleged Chinese-funded radar stations in Myanmar and Sri Lanka have only compounded fears that these nations are being used by China for military use. Despite official denials of any military activity, rumours persist, further highlighting the challenges facing smaller nations in the current geopolitical landscape.
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Ethiopia to Enter into Peace Talks with Oromo Liberation Army
Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced on April 23 that peace negotiations with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) rebel group will commence on April 25 in Tanzania. The OLA subsequently issued a statement confirming the talks and stating that the Ethiopian government had agreed to their terms. The negotiations could result in improved security and political stability in Oromia and surrounding regions if they are successful, but several obstacles could derail the process.
The Ethiopian government and the OLA have a long history of mistrust, and some factions within the OLA may continue to launch attacks in Oromia, Addis Ababa, or neighbouring regions. In addition, Amhara militias may oppose the talks and continue to fight the government, further complicating the situation. Nevertheless, this marks the first time that the Ethiopian government and the OLA will engage in a peace dialogue following years of fighting. Following the end of the two-year war in Tigray in November 2022, clashes between the Ethiopian military and the OLA increased in Oromia, leading to increased pressure on the Abiy government to enter into negotiations with the group.
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French Court Halts Migrant Expulsion from Mayotte Slum
A court in France has stopped the expulsion of migrants from a slum on the Indian Ocean island of Mayotte. The operation, named “Operation Wuambushu,” was aimed at expelling irregular migrants from Mayotte, which is France's poorest department, claiming it would improve living conditions for locals.
The plan sparked clashes between locals and security forces and tensions with neighbouring Comoros. Roughly half of Mayotte’s population of around 350,000 is estimated to be foreign, with many Africans, especially Comorans, trying to reach Mayotte every year. In 2019, France pledged €150m ($161m) in development aid as part of a deal to tackle human trafficking and ease the repatriation of Comorans from Mayotte. The island is the fourth of the Comoros archipelago that France held on to after an initial 1974 referendum, but it is still claimed by Moroni.
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72-hour Ceasefire Announced in Sudan
A 72-hour ceasefire has been announced by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken for the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The ceasefire is expected to facilitate the evacuation of foreign nationals from Sudan and enable the provision of humanitarian aid to affected areas.
Efforts to broker cease-fires in Sudan have been ongoing since the conflict began on April 15th, with the United States, European countries, and other Arab nations taking part in the negotiations. However, there is no guarantee that the ceasefire will hold as factionalism within both the SAF and RSF may lead to renewed fighting. The situation remains volatile and the success of the ceasefire is uncertain, but the temporary halt in fighting provides a glimmer of hope for the people of Sudan and those attempting to assist them.
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Turkmenistan Facing a Severe Water Crisis
The situation with Turkmenistan's water resources has become a source of serious concern, as Afghanistan is moving forward with plans to divert water from the Amu Darya River. The country is already heavily dependent on the Amu Darya River for its crops.
Turkmenistan is showing a willingness to open up to international involvement in addressing what can now be described as a permanent water crisis. Israel’s Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, who recently inaugurated the opening of his country's embassy in Ashgabat, has already expressed an interest in sharing Israel's experiences in agriculture and water-saving techniques. The state-owned railway companies of Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan have also agreed to form a joint venture called NS Express to handle the transportation of goods along the eastern route of the International North-South Transport Corridor.