In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, April 23rd
EU Eases Schengen Visa Rules for Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, Galp Energia Discovers Massive Oil Field Offshore Namibia, and other stories.
EU Eases Schengen Visa Rules for Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia
The European Union (EU) has announced a relaxation of Schengen visa rules for citizens of Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, making it easier for nationals of these Gulf countries to visit Europe. The decision, adopted by the European Commission during the EU-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) High Level Forum on Regional Security and Cooperation in Luxembourg, aims to harmonize the rules for granting multiple-entry visas to GCC citizens.
Under the new rules, Bahraini, Omani, and Saudi Arabian nationals will be eligible for multiple-entry visas, allowing them to visit the Schengen area, which includes the EU's 27 member states as well as Bulgaria and Romania, and move freely between them. Visa holders will be able to make multiple visits to Schengen countries over a five-year period, and the visa will also apply to first-time travellers from the three Middle Eastern countries. The move comes as European countries compete for new investments from wealthy Gulf nations, and follows the UK's decision in February to offer Electronic Travel Authorization visas to GCC nationals. The EU's decision is expected to boost tourism and business ties between the two regions, while the GCC has also announced plans for a unified tourist visa similar to the Schengen visa.
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US Drafting Sanctions on Chinese Banks Over Exports to Russia
The United States is drafting sanctions that would cut off some Chinese banks from the dollar and the global financial system if China continues to export dual-use goods to Russia. The move is intended to give Antony Blinken leverage during his diplomatic visit to Beijing, where he aims to persuade Chinese officials to restrict the export of items that can be used for both civilian and military purposes.
While the US is unlikely to target major Chinese banks due to the risk of retaliation and economic repercussions, the threat of sanctions is expected to push these institutions to self-regulate by reducing ties with sanctioned banks. This, in turn, could drive Chinese exports of dual-use goods to smaller regional banks with limited exposure to the dollar, increasing costs for all parties involved. China has supplied a significant portion of Russia's microelectronics, machine tools, and finished dual-use equipment, bolstering Moscow's capabilities in its war with Ukraine. As tensions persist, the US hopes that the looming threat of sanctions will be sufficient to influence Beijing's actions and disrupt the flow of sensitive materials to Russia.
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Poland Open to Hosting NATO Nuclear Weapons
Polish President Andrzej Duda has declared that the country is prepared to host nuclear weapons as part of NATO's nuclear sharing agreement, a move aimed at reinforcing the alliance's eastern flank and deterring Russia. Duda's statement comes in response to Russia's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in neighbouring Belarus.
Under the NATO nuclear weapon-sharing agreement, the United States forward-deploys B61 nuclear bombs to air bases in participating member nations. In the event of a crisis requiring their use, the weapons would be loaded onto Dual Capable Aircraft belonging to these countries. Duda's comments suggest that discussions about nuclear cooperation between Poland and the United States have been ongoing “for some time.” On the other hand, Russia has warned that the actions of Western powers are increasing the risk of a direct military confrontation between nuclear states. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov specifically criticized the United States, United Kingdom, and France for providing arms to Ukraine, claiming that their goal is to bring about Russia's “strategic defeat.”
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Armenia and Azerbaijan Battle at the ICJ Amid Peace Talks
As Armenia and Azerbaijan engage in a complex peace process over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, the two countries remain locked in a legal battle at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Armenia filed a suit in 2021 accusing Azerbaijan of war crimes, including inciting hatred against Armenians and systematically erasing Armenian cultural heritage in Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan recaptured last year, displacing over 100,000 Armenians. Azerbaijan has countered with its own lawsuit and a motion to dismiss Armenia's case on jurisdictional grounds.
The ICJ proceedings have unfolded alongside recent developments, including a petition submitted by a California-based rights group to the International Criminal Court (ICC), urging an investigation into Azerbaijani war crimes in Karabakh. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has also floated the idea of both sides dropping their respective cases as part of a comprehensive peace deal, a suggestion that has drawn criticism from various segments of Armenian society. Critics argue that abandoning the legal process would undermine efforts to hold Azerbaijan accountable for human rights violations and prevent future crimes, emphasizing that lasting peace requires the restoration of justice.
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Galp Energia Discovers Massive Oil Field Offshore Namibia
Portuguese energy company Galp Energia has announced a significant oil discovery in the Mopane field offshore Namibia. The company estimates the field could contain at least 10 billion barrels of oil based on testing operations conducted in January and March. Galp's share price surged over 20% on the news, with the discovery being hailed as potentially transformational for the company.
Galp, which holds an 80% stake in the exploration licence covering Mopane, has launched a sale process for half of its interest, likely to attract major international energy companies. The proceeds could be in the billions as Namibia's nascent oil industry gathers momentum, despite the global shift towards cleaner energy. With oil demand projected to grow for decades, the Mopane discovery could have significant implications for Galp's future prospects and Namibia's economic development.
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Philippines and the US Launch Major Joint War Games
The Philippines and United States have commenced their largest-ever joint military exercises, known as Balikatan, involving up to 16,000 troops. The drills, which will include operations outside the Philippines' territorial waters in the South China Sea, are a direct challenge to China's expansive claims in the contested waterway. The exercises will also extend to the Philippines' northern Cagayan province, near Taiwan.
The Balikatan exercises come amid rising tensions between the Philippines and China over disputed features in the South China Sea. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has taken a hard line against Beijing compared to his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, who is now facing scrutiny over an alleged “secret deal” with China concerning the Second Thomas Shoal. The Marcos administration is now investigating the agreement. As the Philippines pushes back against China on multiple fronts, the massive US-Philippine war games serve as a clear signal of Washington's commitment to its Southeast Asian ally as part of broader US-China competition.