In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, August 22nd
US-Mongolia Mining Partnership Aims to Upend Rare Earth Dynamics, African Union Suspends Niger, and other stories.
Malaysia's Balancing Act Amidst US-China Tech Competition
The ongoing tech rivalry between the United States and China has cast its shadow over Malaysia, illuminating the intricate dance of diplomacy and pragmatism amidst the development of 5G technologies. Recently, US and European diplomats voiced concerns to the Malaysian government about potential national security risks tied to involving China's Huawei in constructing the nation's second 5G network. This has sparked impassioned debates within Malaysia, encapsulating the larger dilemma faced by Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members. These nations, while navigating a “third way” amidst the tech war, find themselves under increasing pressure from both the US and China, with the prospect of choosing a side looming ever closer.
Malaysia's situation provides insights into the broader implications of the US-China tech competition. The Digital Silk Road (DSR), initiated by China in 2015, has extended its influence across over 160 countries, redefining AI capabilities, surveillance, and e-commerce. Malaysia, a microcosm of these global dynamics, finds itself at a crossroads, with its burgeoning digital economy fuelled by Chinese investments and collaborations. Balancing immediate gains with long-term concerns, Southeast Asian countries strive to preserve their agency while avoiding an outright allegiance to either side. This necessitates a nuanced approach that acknowledges the intricate web of domestic interests, rather than succumbing to binary divisions. As the Malaysia-US-China tech narrative unfolds, it underscores the need for a pragmatic recalibration, shifting focus from ideological confrontations to cooperative opportunities.
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US-Mongolia Mining Partnership Aims to Upend Rare Earth Dynamics
In a recent meeting, US Vice President Kamala Harris and Mongolian Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene focused on fostering collaborations in the mining sector, with a particular emphasis on rare earth magnets and other essential minerals. The discussions build upon a memorandum of understanding established in June between the US State Department and Mongolia's Ministry of Mining and Heavy Industry. Mongolia, possessing significant reserves of copper and other strategic minerals, seeks to capitalize on this partnership to enhance its mining potential and secure a reliable channel for global mineral supply.
The significance of this partnership lies within the broader context of global rare earth dynamics. The competitive landscape between China and the US currently dominates the rare earths market, with China boasting both substantial reserves and expertise in refining and extraction. With China's control over the supply chain, the US aims to diversify its sources and enhance its capacity to produce critical materials like rare earth magnets and copper. These materials are crucial for advanced technological applications, including defence systems. As Washington seeks to reduce its dependency on China, the collaboration with Mongolia presents a potential avenue for disrupting the existing rare earth market dynamics, contributing to a more diversified global supply chain.
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China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Faces Security Risks
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), continues to confront significant challenges as Pakistan grapples with both economic pressures and escalating militant attacks. While China remains committed to its strategic investments in Pakistan, mounting security risks and delayed projects are testing the resilience of this bilateral collaboration. The recent attack on a convoy of Chinese engineers working on the Gwadar Port project underscores the intensifying violence in Pakistan and its potential to hinder progress.
China's significant investment in CPEC aims to secure access to Pakistan's ports and create trade routes to the Indian Ocean. However, escalating militant attacks, particularly those targeting Chinese nationals and projects, have put into question the safety of China’s investments and personnel. Pakistan's economic challenges, including its growing debt burden and the need for structural reforms, further hinder its capacity to ensure a conducive environment for Chinese investments. Delays in project completion due to security issues and economic constraints might impede Pakistan's ability to fully realize the benefits of CPEC, adding strain to the bilateral relationship. While the alliance between China and Pakistan remains strong, these challenges emphasize the importance of aligning security measures with economic objectives to safeguard mutual interests.
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African Union Suspends Niger
The African Union (AU) has suspended Niger's participation in all AU activities, organs, and institutions. The AU further expressed its reservations about a potential military intervention by the West African regional bloc ECOWAS to restore President Mohamed Bazoum. While ECOWAS has indicated its intention to deploy a West African force to bring Bazoum back to power, the AU insists on cooperation between the military junta, ECOWAS, and the AU for a peaceful and rapid resolution.
The coup in Niger has triggered concerns among France and the United States as well as regional actors, with both France and the US expressing support for ECOWAS' efforts. The situation has widespread implications for the Sahel region, which is grappling with insurgencies and militant attacks. Furthermore, the coup's potential impact on the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline project, set to connect Nigeria and Algeria for natural gas transportation to Europe from 2027, has caused alarm in other capitals. As Niger joins Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali in solidarity after a series of coups in recent years, the broader stability of the region hangs in the balance amidst the diplomatic dance between countries in the region and outside powers.
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Philippine Denial of Ship Removal Pledge Fuels SCS Tensions
Philippine's officials are refuting China's claim of a past agreement to remove the grounded ship BRP Sierra Madre from Second Thomas Shoal, heightening tensions in the South China Sea. The Philippines grounded the ship in the shoal in 1999 to assert sovereignty, a move challenged by China, which views the shoal as part of its territory. Despite the supposed promise to remove the ship, current Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. denies awareness of such an agreement, nullifying any previous commitment. This situation adds to the complexity of an already tense situation in the region.
The conflicting claims about a past agreement have rekindled tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea. The Philippines' decision to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre and reinforce its presence in the area could escalate the dispute further. China's refusal to acknowledge the Philippines' sovereignty claims in the region and its assertion of operational control over disputed territories are already straining regional relations. The upcoming mission to resupply the ship and potential naval drills in the area by various countries may exacerbate the situation, as diplomatic protests against China's activities continue to be filed. The South China Sea remains a flashpoint in geopolitics, with various nations asserting their interests in the region's valuable resources and strategic maritime routes.
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International Organizations Drive CARICOM’s Approach
For the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), a coalition of small states, international organizations (IOs) play a pivotal role in their diplomatic efforts, particularly in addressing challenges arising from the dynamics of global politics. Unlike major powers, small states have often been overshadowed in international relations. However, CARICOM's engagement with international organizations (IOs) demonstrates a nuanced approach.
CARICOM recognizes the potential of IOs as force multipliers for international cooperation, contributing to the bloc's development and amplifying its influence in global debates. The region's emphasis on multilateralism is evident through its focus on issues such as climate change and international financial reform. The bloc's leveraging of IOs has yielded diplomatic successes, positioning it to effectively advocate for its interests on the international stage. CARICOM's IO-driven diplomacy demonstrates the potential for small states to influence global debates and advocate for meaningful change. However, challenges remain, including the need to secure adequate resources for the CARICOM Secretariat and garner political support for deeper regional integration. These factors will shape CARICOM's ability to navigate the evolving landscape of international diplomacy.