In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, August 17th
Israel-Iran Shadow War Continues to Threaten Merchant Shipping and War in Afghanistan a Humbling Experience for the UK
Israel-Iran Shadow War Continues to Threaten Merchant Shipping
The recent attacks on shipping in the Middle East are part of the conflict being waged between Israel and Iran. Israel seeks to deny Hezbollah its income from oil shipments, so it attacks the convoys in transit to Lebanon. Iran retaliates, as was likely the case in the recently reported attack on the Mercer Street vessel.Israeli attacks open Israel up to retaliation in kind. Shipping is threatened amidst this shadow war with neither side willing to escalate to outright war.
The Israeli attack these ships in an effort to deny shipments of Iranian oil to be delivered to ports in Syria. Because a significant quantity of this oil eventually goes to Lebanon and ends up in the hands of Hezbollah, Israel is covertly cutting off a major source of income for Hezbollah. But while Israel's attacks on Iranian tankers will disrupt this supply to Hezbollah, Israel sets its own merchant vessels up for possible retaliation as both engage in tit-for-tat covert military action.
Israel has made multiple strikes on Iranian targets inside Syria, but this may be largely motivated by Israel’s desire to curb Hezbollah rather than Iran directly. The likelihood of these attacks on merchant vessels escalating into a full-scale war is low, and because neither side seeks to escalate this low-level conflict into a general war, the region will likely continue to see threats to merchant shipping for the foreseeable future.
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War in Afghanistan a Humbling Experience for the UK
UK lawmakers and military personnel will have to confront some unpleasant truths about the over 20-year conflict in Afghanistan. When looking for a national strategy in Afghanistan over the years, what some find is that the UK was operating little more than just tactically on the battlefield, and very little influence over the overarching US strategy.
UK forces continued to operate in Afghanistan even after most of the other NATO countries had withdrawn for a few reasons: to support its ally even to the point of upholding a failing strategy; the UK was driven by an ambition to transform Afghanistan’s society into a functioning democratic state; to uphold the status quo by enshrining its ideals and interests in international law; to check Russian and Chinese geopolitical influence in South Asia. But while the UK enjoyed tactical success on the battlefield, these victories did not be translate into success due to the failures of the broader US strategy.
The UK’s grand strategy was largely to align closely with the US from the very beginning of the war, but perhaps being Washington’s closest military ally does not make for an effective national strategy. If a fundamental goal of the UK’s strategy in Afghanistan was to uphold the values of human rights or the vibrancy of democracy, the country has utterly failed at these objectives by most measures. The outcome of the disasterous campaign in Afghanistan may come to mean further challenges to the status quo, with increasing pressure for the UK to uphold its ‘values’ even when its own national interests are not at stake.
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