In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, August 23rd
Progress Reported at Iran Nuclear Deal Negotiations, Calls for Calm as UAE-Backed Militants Launch Military Operation, and other stories.
China Working to Match US Space Plane Capabilities
Earlier this month, one of China's most reliable rockets took off from a spaceport in the Gobi Desert carrying a new reusable space plane. This is the second time China has launched what is believed to be a small space plane, likely similar to the US Space Force's experimental X-37B vehicle.
It is likely that China’s reusable spaceplane has an alternative military purpose, similar to that of the X-37B. The Chinese unmanned orbital vehicle remained in a 350-kilometer-high orbit for over 40 hours on its first flight and is reportedly using a similar orbit during its latest mission. Such spacecraft could be used to deploy clandestine satellites able to conduct surveillance and attack missions. A 2021 paper on China’s spaceplane programs prepared for the US Institute for Defense Analyses noted that China’s spaceplane programs display “clear borrowing from Western designs.”
Read more about this story here.
Progress Reported at Iran Nuclear Deal Negotiations
Iran has submitted its formal response to what the EU described as its final offer for all sides to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal after 16 months of EU-mediated talks between Washington and Tehran. Now Iran must wait for the US response as Washington prepares to reply to Iran’s written comments after holding talks with French, UK and German leaders about reviving the JCPOA.
The Biden administration is considering whether to accept re-entry into the JCPOA. This would likely work to reduce tension between Washington and Tehran, and place caps on Iran's nuclear program while also bringing more Iranian oil into global energy markets. On the other hand, the US could be trying to reassure Israeli officials, in which case more regional instability and a growing crisis over the status of Iran's nuclear program is expected.
Read more about this story here.
Calls for Calm as UAE-Backed Militants Launch Military Operation
The United Arab Emirates-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) of Yemen has launched a military operation against Saudi-backed Islah militants. The STC announced a new counterterrorism operation in the Yemeni province of Abyan against what it said were suspected Islamic State and Al-Qaeda militants.
This move is part of the STC’s years-long strategy of using counterterrorism operations to expand control over territory in the former state of South Yemen. For years, this has been a key separatist goal that would allow them to secede to an independent South Yemen nation. This strategy has sometimes led to clashes with other elements of the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, despite the close relations between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. The head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council Rashad al-Alimi has ordered the STC to stop military operations.
Read more about this story here.
The EU and the Geopolitics of Technology
The European Union faces a long-term resilience and competitiveness challenge in a time of increased US-China technological competition. While the EU can target Russian procurement of semiconductor technology, Russia can retaliate to the EU’s semiconductor supply chain by cutting access to neon gases and palladium. This makes the EU vulnerable as it looks to align its policies with those of the US and other G7 economies in restricting China’s access to advanced technologies.
The EU’s approach to managing tech transfers has already undergone significant change. European policymakers and regulators have reinforced and expanded the toolbox of defensive mechanisms in this sphere, and the EU appears aware of the limits of its power in US-China technological competition. The EU and its member states have worked to improve their policy toolbox in order to better monitor transactions and address risks by adopting investment screening and export control procedures, though there is still a long way to go before the EU is able to secure long-term resilience and restrict China’s access to advanced technologies.