In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, August 24th
How the United States Can Avoid a Two-Front War and Saudi Arabia Signs Military Deal with Russia
How the United States Can Avoid a Two-Front War
As the United States re-orients itself in recognition of the coming time of growing multipolarity and great power competition within the international system, the country faces the risk of stumbling into a two-front war involving China and Russia. Such a conflict would pit the US simultaneously against the resources of nearly half of the Eurasian landmass, a scenario the US may not be well-positioned to overcome. But there are strategic options available to Washington, ways to accomplish its goals without compromising its interests.
A. Wess Mitchell argues that it may actually be in the interest of the US to encourage and incentivise Russia to increasingly consider itself as an Asian, rather a European, power, thereby leading Russia into friction with China. To accomplish this, Mitchell asserts that the United States could incentivise its Asian allies to continue buying Russian weapons, introducing new points of friction between Moscow and Beijing.
Such a policy would have its risks however, namely, that the current Russian leadership could pocket the benefits of, say, Japanese or Korean investments in Russia’s Far East and simply continue to align itself with China simultaneously. Mitchell recognises this reality, and posits that a strategy of incentivising Russian investment in Asia would require Moscow to consider westward expansion to be too costly in the medium-term. Ukraine can be an effective instrument in effectively achieving this strategy by functioning as the focal point of the military confrontation and as a check on Russian moves elsewhere in Europe, closing the door to the West shut and forcing Russia to focus on Asia.
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Saudi Arabia Signs Military Deal with Russia
For the majority of the 76 years following the Quincy Agreement on the Great Bitter Lake between US President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Saudi King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud, Riyadh has bought almost all of its weapons from either the US or one of its close allies, particularly France and the UK. But the Middle East, as well as the international system beyond, is in a state of flux, where past guarantees may not hold true in the future. In such an environment, Saudi Arabia must act quickly if the country is to secure its long-term interests.
Marking a major change in Saudi Arabia's defence policy, Riyadh and Moscow have signed a new military agreement aimed at bolstering military cooperation between the two countries. Following meetings with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, Saudi Prince Khalid is quoted as saying that the agreement will enable both countries to “endeavour to preserve stability and security in the region,” following the meeting." Shoigu also expressed optimism for future military cooperation, stating that Moscow is interested in developing cooperation in “military and military-technical fields on the entire spectrum of issues that pose mutual interest.”
Saudi Arabia’s deepening military ties with Russia are a signal that under present circumstances, Riyadh is unsatisfied with its defence capabilities. This comes as no surprise following the country’s disastrous campaign in Yemen, and Saudi defence deficiencies were especially laid bare by the Iranian attack on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities in 2019. Saudi Arabia is expected to receive the first delivery of the US-made Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system only in 2023, so Riyadh is right to acknowledge that its current air defence capabilities are inadequate. It is no surprise then, that Saudi Arabia has already signalled its interest in a purchase of the Russian S-400 air defence system.
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